COVID-19 Mega thread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Today's preliminary numbers (which do usually get revised upwards slightly) really suggest that this epidemic (or at least this wave of it) has already peaked.

Only about 2500 new infections were confirmed today, the lowest in several days.  In terms of percentages, there was only a 9% uptick in confirmed cases, by far the lowest number since this became pretty widespread.  That number was 64% as recently as 1/27 and has been dropping most days since then.

Additionally, there is some analysis on the talk page on Wikipedia saying that there is no net increase in the numbers currently sick outside of Hubei, suggesting that there is not widespread transmission going on anywhere else.  The world was slow to react, but I think the reaction may have been enough once it did.  At this point, the biggest concern (apart from made-up statistics) is a deadly second wave, kind of like the 1918 Spanish Flu.  There was a springtime wave that was mild, but, after retreating over the summer, the pandemic came back with a vengeance in the fall and caused much more severe illness, suggesting a possible mutation.  The difference between 2020 and 1918, though, is that we should have a vaccine ready in time for any potential second wave.

[Torrain]

I appreciate the optimism, and I hope that we've seen the worst of this.

But I'm just not that sure we're out of the woods yet.

Full disclaimer: I'm a microbiology undergrad who's spent the last four years listening to jaded lecturers talking about how tough dealing with this kind of stuff is, so I'm a little cynical.

I mean, we're still encountering local opposition in the fight to finally eliminate polio, for goodness sake, and we can't stop the flu ravaging us every year. There are undiagnosed cases in Singapore, Thailand and the non-Hubei regions of China that still pose a significant threat. And even if this is somehow contained, we'll likely see another outbreak in the next few years.

I really don't want to go full 'Beet' (never go full Beet). We're not looking at millions of deaths in the next few weeks, and here in the West, we are fairly well protected. But it only takes a small slip-up for things to escalate. A medical student with a fever visits his parents in Mumbai, coughing away on a crowded bus. A UK businesswoman returns home from Singapore, and spends an hour in a border queue, gently swaying.

We shouldn't panic. But we need to stay vigilant, and engaged. Otherwise we risk making the same mistakes that let this get out of Wuhan in the first place. Nothing spread a virus like apathy.

[Beet]

I appreciate the optimism, and I hope that we've seen the worst of this.

But I'm just not that sure we're out of the woods yet.

Full disclaimer: I'm a microbiology undergrad who's spent the last four years listening to jaded lecturers talking about how tough dealing with this kind of stuff is, so I'm a little cynical.

I mean, we're still encountering local opposition in the fight to finally eliminate polio, for goodness sake, and we can't stop the flu ravaging us every year. There are undiagnosed cases in Singapore, Thailand and the non-Hubei regions of China that still pose a significant threat. And even if this is somehow contained, we'll likely see another outbreak in the next few years.

I really don't want to go full 'Beet' (never go full Beet). We're not looking at millions of deaths in the next few weeks, and here in the West, we are fairly well protected. But it only takes a small slip-up for things to escalate. A medical student with a fever visits his parents in Mumbai, coughing away on a crowded bus. A UK businesswoman returns home from Singapore, and spends an hour in a border queue, gently swaying.

We shouldn't panic. But we need to stay vigilant, and engaged. Otherwise we risk making the same mistakes that let this get out of Wuhan in the first place. Nothing spread a virus like apathy.

No need for this unnecessary dig. I have not said anything more alarming than what you have already said in your post. The idea that my posts are somehow really faar out there is ridiculous.

Death rate.

Four days ago 362 died, 487 recovered. Today 636 died, 1,489 recovered. The death rate for the past 4 days is 22%.

[It’s so Joever]

I appreciate the optimism, and I hope that we've seen the worst of this.

But I'm just not that sure we're out of the woods yet.

Full disclaimer: I'm a microbiology undergrad who's spent the last four years listening to jaded lecturers talking about how tough dealing with this kind of stuff is, so I'm a little cynical.

I mean, we're still encountering local opposition in the fight to finally eliminate polio, for goodness sake, and we can't stop the flu ravaging us every year. There are undiagnosed cases in Singapore, Thailand and the non-Hubei regions of China that still pose a significant threat. And even if this is somehow contained, we'll likely see another outbreak in the next few years.

I really don't want to go full 'Beet' (never go full Beet). We're not looking at millions of deaths in the next few weeks, and here in the West, we are fairly well protected. But it only takes a small slip-up for things to escalate. A medical student with a fever visits his parents in Mumbai, coughing away on a crowded bus. A UK businesswoman returns home from Singapore, and spends an hour in a border queue, gently swaying.

We shouldn't panic. But we need to stay vigilant, and engaged. Otherwise we risk making the same mistakes that let this get out of Wuhan in the first place. Nothing spread a virus like apathy.

Agreed, we should have learned our lesson from SARS but that seemed to be forgotten about quickly.

[Torrain]

I appreciate the optimism, and I hope that we've seen the worst of this.

But I'm just not that sure we're out of the woods yet.

Full disclaimer: I'm a microbiology undergrad who's spent the last four years listening to jaded lecturers talking about how tough dealing with this kind of stuff is, so I'm a little cynical.

I mean, we're still encountering local opposition in the fight to finally eliminate polio, for goodness sake, and we can't stop the flu ravaging us every year. There are undiagnosed cases in Singapore, Thailand and the non-Hubei regions of China that still pose a significant threat. And even if this is somehow contained, we'll likely see another outbreak in the next few years.

I really don't want to go full 'Beet' (never go full Beet). We're not looking at millions of deaths in the next few weeks, and here in the West, we are fairly well protected. But it only takes a small slip-up for things to escalate. A medical student with a fever visits his parents in Mumbai, coughing away on a crowded bus. A UK businesswoman returns home from Singapore, and spends an hour in a border queue, gently swaying.

We shouldn't panic. But we need to stay vigilant, and engaged. Otherwise we risk making the same mistakes that let this get out of Wuhan in the first place. Nothing spread a virus like apathy.

No need for this unnecessary dig. I have not said anything more alarming than what you have already said in your post. The idea that my posts are somehow really faar out there is ridiculous.

Death rate.

Four days ago 362 died, 487 recovered. Today 636 died, 1,489 recovered. The death rate for the past 4 days is 22%.

I'm sorry that I included that jibe. I do try to edit out those kinds of comments, and it's really not my intention to go around being snarky. It's been a tiring week here as I chew through my dissertation, and as a consequence, I've had less patience as I browse. I'll admit, I've struggled with the rather hyperbolic tone you've adopted.

There's so much conversation to be had on the spread of n-CoV, and I just wish we could all keep an open mind.

On a more positive note, you've posted a ton of statistics, and I'm intrigued, do you have any recommendations for reading on the outbreak? I've been using the John Hopkins Dashboard (link below), and the Guardian, but could do with some more outlets, to get a more rounded view.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Beet]

I'm sorry that I included that jibe. I do try to edit out those kinds of comments, and it's really not my intention to go around being snarky. It's been a tiring week here as I chew through my dissertation, and as a consequence, I've had less patience as I browse. I'll admit, I've struggled with the rather hyperbolic tone you've adopted.

There's so much conversation to be had on the spread of n-CoV, and I just wish we could all keep an open mind.

On a more positive note, you've posted a ton of statistics, and I'm intrigued, do you have any recommendations for reading on the outbreak? I've been using the John Hopkins Dashboard (link below), and the Guardian, but could do with some more outlets, to get a more rounded view.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Thank you. I just search Twitter for #coronavirus, r/China_Flu, r/coronavirus, and what people post on Atlas. I find some interesting things this way. For instance @RonaldBakerIII claims the virus came from the Malayan pangolin bat. Guy claims to be a CEO at a company called "Net Express" but when you go to the website it's closed. Is what he says credible? Or not? Who knows?

Ironically these pangolins look more like little armadillos. They are an endangered species and are henceforth smuggled in China and elsewhere. Here is a study published October 24 2019 by the Guangdong Institute of Applied Biological Resources:

The Guangdong Wildlife Rescue Center received 21 live Malayan pangolins from the Anti-smuggling Customs Bureau on 24 March 2019; most individuals, including adults and subadults, were in poor health, and their bodies were covered with skin eruptions. All these Malayan pangolins were rescued by the Guangdong Wildlife Rescue Center, however, 16 died after extensive rescue efforts. Most of the dead pangolins had a swollen lung which contained a frothy liquid, as well as the symptom of pulmonary fibrosis, and in the minority of the dead ones, we observed hepatomegaly and splenomegaly. We collected 21 organ samples of lung, lymph, and spleen with obvious symptoms from 11 dead Malayan pangolins to uncover the virus diversity and molecular epidemiology of potential etiologies of viruses based on a viral metagenomic study. This study will be beneficial to pangolin disease research and subsequent rescue operation.

Though there was high species variety of Coronavirus detected, SARS-CoV was the most widely distributed.

Besides the Sendai virus, Coronaviruses were also detected as potential pathogens of Malayan pangolins. The phylogeny of Coronavirus sequences assembled and strains from four Coronavirus genera demonstrated complex genetic relationships and high species diversity of the Coronavirus in Malayan pangolins

We found high viral diversity of dead Malayan pangolins, and the Sendai virus and Coronavirus may be the dominant pathogens responsible for their death. The Sendai virus showed a close relationship between the Malayan pangolin and the strain isolated from humans, whereas Coronavirus sequences showed a high species diversity.

To date, this is the first metagenomic study of virus diversity in pangolins in China.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/11/11/979/htm

Who knows, maybe this Baker guy is full of sh__, but an interesting read.

5) As a healthcare worker working in an overloaded hospital, he may have delayed his own treatment to continue attending to patients, which could increase the severity of any infection.

6) Being a healthcare worker, he may have been exposed to the virus on multiple occasions, much more often than other cases. The higher viral load may have resulted in a more severe reaction than in most cases.
6a) A reiteration of your fourth point, with the suggestion that the "underlying disease" may not be a long-term health issue but the kind of bacterial infection common in hospital settings.

But at the core of it is your first point: "unlikely" and "impossible" are not synonyms. Especially without seeing his medical charts, there are no grounds to speculate about mortality rate from a single case.

Ok but according to the BBC:

In his Weibo post he describes how on 10 January he started coughing, the next day he had a fever and two days later he was in hospital. He was diagnosed with the coronavirus on 30 January.

During January 10-12, the hospitals were not that full yet, were they? At that time the Wuhan government was still claiming no new cases for days. Wikipedia claims that he was not confirmed until February 1 because of a lack of test kits; some sources say February 1, others (like above) January 30. So clearly the international reporting is muddled. I remember distinctly a BBC article saying he tested negative more than once before finally testing positive, but I cannot find it now.

A chilling quote from WSJ:
“It happened so suddenly,” one doctor in Wuhan who knew Dr. Li said in a phone interview late Thursday night. An unfortunate part of this disease is that the final deterioration is very sudden.

[dead0man]

Eastern Woo medicine is a pox on our civilization

[BigSerg]

Alert!!!!!!!

"At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers."

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html

[PSOL]

Can we please move international news to the international thread?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Saturday 8 Feb 2020

Cases: 34,875
98.5% of today's new cases were located in China (3,385)

Deaths: 724

Mortality Rate: 2.07%

Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Graph from Friday 7 Feb 2020



41 new cases in Japan yesterday most likely on the Cruise Ship quarantined offshore..

Australia has 15 cases. 5 recovered.
USA has 12 cases. 3 recovered.

6,101 people in critical condition.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Today's numbers aren't good, but I hesitate to ascribe a trend to one day.  Yesterday's was revised from +9% to +11%, and today's preliminary number is already +11%.  The death of the 33 year old whistleblower was also a little concerning because I would not have expected a young person in good health to be a fatality if the death rate were just flu-like, as I was thinking/hoping (unless something shady went on).

There are also now a couple parts of East and Southeast Asia (outside of China) that are a little concerning, but I still think that the immediate concern is abroad and that the US is probably going to be OK.

[Beet]

Death rate.

Four days ago, officially 492 died, 906 recovered. Today 723 died and 2,063 recovered. The death rate in the past 4 days is 17%.

[emailking]

Death rate.

Four days ago, officially 492 died, 906 recovered. Today 723 died and 2,063 recovered. The death rate in the past 4 days is 17%.

How are you calculating this number?

(723 - 492) / 2063 = 11 %

(723 - 492) / (2063 - 906) = 20%

I don't know what you're doing.

[Skill and Chance]

Today's numbers aren't good, but I hesitate to ascribe a trend to one day.  Yesterday's was revised from +9% to +11%, and today's preliminary number is already +11%.  The death of the 33 year old whistleblower was also a little concerning because I would not have expected a young person in good health to be a fatality if the death rate were just flu-like, as I was thinking/hoping (unless something shady went on).

There are also now a couple parts of East and Southeast Asia (outside of China) that are a little concerning, but I still think that the immediate concern is abroad and that the US is probably going to be OK.

It feels like we're right on the line between containment within mainland China and unconstrained global spreading. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

Today's numbers aren't good, but I hesitate to ascribe a trend to one day.  Yesterday's was revised from +9% to +11%, and today's preliminary number is already +11%.  The death of the 33 year old whistleblower was also a little concerning because I would not have expected a young person in good health to be a fatality if the death rate were just flu-like, as I was thinking/hoping (unless something shady went on).

There are also now a couple parts of East and Southeast Asia (outside of China) that are a little concerning, but I still think that the immediate concern is abroad and that the US is probably going to be OK.

It feels like we're right on the line between containment within mainland China and unconstrained global spreading.  

It only feels like that because of the media. The growth rate in USA, UK and Australia is now negative where those three countries had 30 cases with 5 people cured, so now they only have 25 cases registered.

Not exactly the pandemic mentioned.

The only pandemic and the first victim of any large scale situation is..... within the media.


(news.com.au home page)

Staggering.......disturbing.......desperate......horrifying......stunning.......please.

You will not find any news stories in the USA, UK or Australia that say that the number of cases outside China is now falling.  

It's important to look at the data objectively.

[dead0man]

I drove past (in the opposite direction) the Coronavirus caravan tonight on my way into work.

[Torrain]

Thank you. I just search Twitter for #coronavirus, r/China_Flu, r/coronavirus, and what people post on Atlas. I find some interesting things this way. For instance @RonaldBakerIII claims the virus came from the Malayan pangolin bat. Guy claims to be a CEO at a company called "Net Express" but when you go to the website it's closed. Is what he says credible? Or not? Who knows?

Ironically these pangolins look more like little armadillos. They are an endangered species and are henceforth smuggled in China and elsewhere. Here is a study published October 24 2019 by the Guangdong Institute of Applied Biological Resources:

Nice, thanks for the share.

Pangolins would be a pretty concerning vector/intermediate host. Anything that's being traded outside of the law like that could be super hard to track, and their endangered status means we'll be unable to cull them if a reservoir of disease is identified in their population.

What I'm really interested in is whether the disease is exclusive to humans and pangolins, or whether the research implicating bats is accurate as well. If n-CoV is able to lurk in a number of mammalian carriers, China may have a longer term issue on their hands.

Furthermore, if multiple mammalian hosts are identified, someone really should conduct some basic trials on common domestic and agricultural mammals. See if they're viable hosts.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It doesn't objectively deserve more attention than any other individual death, but a US citizen in Wuhan became the first American to die of coronavirus.  Still, no deaths have been recorded outside of East Asia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/08/4fcbd584-49f5-11ea-9164-d3154ad8a5cd_story.html

[Beet]

Death rate.

Four days ago, officially 492 died, 906 recovered. Today 723 died and 2,063 recovered. The death rate in the past 4 days is 17%.

How are you calculating this number?

(723 - 492) / 2063 = 11 %

(723 - 492) / (2063 - 906) = 20%

I don't know what you're doing.

It's (723 - 492)/[(2063 - 906) + (723 - 492)].

A larger study of 138 patients was published yesterday.

- Mortality 4.3%, although like most mainstream sources they are assuming all nonresolved cases recover. Counting only resolved cases, the mortality is 6/53 = 11%.

- Median time to ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) 8 days.

- Median time in hospital for recovered patients 10 days.

- Median age of hospitalized patients 56, median age of ICU patients 66

- High blood pressure and diabetes may be risk factors.

- 41% got it while in the hospital.

- Symptoms 99% fever, 70% dry cough, 60% fatigue

-  All of the patients in this study received antibacterial agents, 90% received antiviral therapy, and 45% received methylprednisolone. However, no effective outcomes were observed.

Confirmed:

https://twitter.com/RolandBakerIII/status/1226149513653411840

Not surprising given the Amoy Gardens SARS infection pattern I posted of earlier.

Caixin: Key Diagnostic Test May be Missing Many Cases (nucleic acid test). Seems like negative NAT tests are being used by hospitals with a shortage of beds with an excuse to send people home, even if their chest X rays clearly show pneumonia.

The next step up for testing accuracy is gene sequencing, which is more expensive.

[It’s so Joever]

New case rise about to come as China reporting is coming in soon.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sunday 9 Feb 2020

Cases: 37,552
99.1% of today's new cases were located in China (2,652)

Deaths: 813

Mortality Rate: 2.16%

Saturday 8/2/2020 (2.07%)
Friday 7/2/2020 (2.06%)
Thursday 6/2/2020 (2.04%)
Wednesday 5/2/2020 (2.06%)
Tuesday (2.07%)
Monday (2.08%)
Sunday (2.09%)
Saturday (2.17%)
Friday (2.13%)

Graph from Saturday 8 Feb 2020


(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Singapore has 40 cases now. (+7)

Japan has 89 cases. (+3)

Two Cruise Ships have been quarantined in Japan including the Diamond Princess which now has 64 Corona-virus cases. This is the biggest foreign outbreak of the virus.

"At least 273 passengers have been tested for Corona-virus so far, and there are fears the quarantine period may restart every time a new case of the virus is diagnosed."

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australians-on-board-three-cruise-ships-quarantined-stranded-at-sea-20200208-p53z03.html

Multiple cruise ship companies have closed ranks on passport holders from China, Hong Kong and Macau banning them from boarding their ships.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article240101483.html

[Beet]

Death rate.

Three days ago, officially 565 died, 1,171 recovered. Today officially 807 died, 2,617 recovered. The death rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Death rate.

Three days ago, officially 565 died, 1,171 recovered. Today officially 807 died, 2,617 recovered. The death rate of the past 3 days is 14%.

Are you willing to understand why it was misleading that you were talking about a 60%+ death rate a couple weeks ago?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There are some reports of 5 deaths of coronavirus in North Korea, but, given the nature of North Korea, we'll probably never really know what's going on there.

[junior chįmp]

Looks like China is mass cremating the dead bodies of Coronavirus victims:

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=19