COVID-19 Mega thread

[Torrain]

The media will hype anything. Really sad....

Yeah. Benghazi, emails, Ebola, tan suits, bowing to foreign diplomats.
Really sad....

[Meclazine for Israel]

Jeff Duchin, health officer for Seattle and King Counties, later said in a CDC press briefing that the patient was a man who had "significant, chronic, underlying health conditions."

Not surprising.  It appears that COVID-19 is following a pretty standard mortality curve that includes individuals who are immuno-suppressed, suffering from existing respiratory issues, etc.  

Is it just respiratory/cardiovascular/immune conditions, or would other preeixsting conditions increase death risk?

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION - DEATH RATE (confirmed cases) - DEATH RATE (all cases)
Cardiovascular disease       - 13.2% - 10.5%
Diabetes                           - 9.2% - 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease - 8.0% - 6.3%
Hypertension                     - 8.4% - 6.0%
Cancer                               - 7.6% - 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions   - 0.9%

In addition to this list, I am going with age.

We have had no child deaths <9. In fact, the number of cases for children is remarkably low.

Above the age of 80, the mortality rate is quite significant with around 18% of patients killed by the virus.

Also, one thing about virus testing with asking people about their movements, I have heard a lot about cases where people leave a country because of an outbreak, only to be patient zero in the country they travelled to.

A woman from Iran has come to Australia last week, and immediately started working in a beauty clinic within days. Now she has transmitted the virus into the community with up to 40 patients to be contacted and quarantined. You cannot leave these things to the individual when deciding on what to say to immigration officials on a Customs declaration form. They lie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJUN52oQNVg

I am not a believer in Government control, but when it comes to travel and immigration, a different level of competence is required. Basic understanding of human dishonesty of travelling people would be a start. Basic honesty with scientific reporting would also be helpful.

In Iran for example, based on the number of deaths, the mortality rate reverse engineered would mean they have around 4-5,000 cases.

Iran have reported 593 cases with 205 newly listed today. They are reporting at a rate of around 10%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jeff Duchin, health officer for Seattle and King Counties, later said in a CDC press briefing that the patient was a man who had "significant, chronic, underlying health conditions."

Not surprising.  It appears that COVID-19 is following a pretty standard mortality curve that includes individuals who are immuno-suppressed, suffering from existing respiratory issues, etc.  

Is it just respiratory/cardiovascular/immune conditions, or would other preeixsting conditions increase death risk?

In addition to your list, I am going with age. We have had no child deaths <9. Above 70, the mortality rate is quite significant. Just a generalised conclusion from looking at the data.

Also, one thing about virus testing with asking people about their movements, I have heard a lot about cases where people lied to escape a country with an outbreak, only to be patient zero in the country they travelled to.

A woman from Iran had come to Australia, and immediately started working in a beauty clinic within days. Now she has transmitted the virus into the community with up to 40 patients to be contacted.

I am not a believer in Government control, but when it comes to travel and immigration, a different level of competence is required. Basic understanding of human dishonesty of travelling people would be a start. Basic honesty with scientific reporting would also be helpful.

In Iran for example, based on the number of deaths, the mortality rate reverse engineered would mean they have around 4-5,000 cases.

Iran have reported 593 cases with 205 newly listed today. They are reporting at a rate of around 10%.

Apparently Iran has been underreporting deaths too:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1233443539914252289

[Meclazine for Israel]

Georgia, if that is true, then Iran has 20-25,000 cases and is under-reporting the actual number of cases to the tune of 97-98%.

[T'Chenka]

The media will hype anything. Really sad....

Imagine trusting your gut and/or the President over hundreds of countries, news channels and experts, when it comes to a DEADLY PANDEMIC. Lol. Darwinian evolution in non-human circumstances would weed a predisposition to that kind of thinking out of the gene pool fast.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I heard a comparison of how Trump's handling of the coronavirus to the mayor from 'Jaws' ignoring the shark.

Trump is basically a move antagonist come to life.

[Beet]

Death rate.

Officially 2,977 died and 42,126 recovered. The case fatality rate dropped to 6.6%.

The number of confirmed cases by Region:
Total overall: 86,960
Hubei Province: 66,907 (+570)
Outside Hubei, China:  12,915 (+1)
South Korea: 3,526 (+595)
Italy: 1,128 (+239)
Iran: 593 (+205)
Japan: 241 (+7)

[It’s so Joever]

Jeff Duchin, health officer for Seattle and King Counties, later said in a CDC press briefing that the patient was a man who had "significant, chronic, underlying health conditions."

Not surprising.  It appears that COVID-19 is following a pretty standard mortality curve that includes individuals who are immuno-suppressed, suffering from existing respiratory issues, etc.  

Is it just respiratory/cardiovascular/immune conditions, or would other preeixsting conditions increase death risk?

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION - DEATH RATE (confirmed cases) - DEATH RATE (all cases)
Cardiovascular disease       - 13.2% - 10.5%
Diabetes                           - 9.2% - 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease - 8.0% - 6.3%
Hypertension                     - 8.4% - 6.0%
Cancer                               - 7.6% - 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions   - 0.9%

In addition to this list, I am going with age.

We have had no child deaths <9. In fact, the number of cases for children is remarkably low.

Above the age of 80, the mortality rate is quite significant with around 18% of patients killed by the virus.

Also, one thing about virus testing with asking people about their movements, I have heard a lot about cases where people leave a country because of an outbreak, only to be patient zero in the country they travelled to.

A woman from Iran has come to Australia last week, and immediately started working in a beauty clinic within days. Now she has transmitted the virus into the community with up to 40 patients to be contacted and quarantined. You cannot leave these things to the individual when deciding on what to say to immigration officials on a Customs declaration form. They lie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJUN52oQNVg

I am not a believer in Government control, but when it comes to travel and immigration, a different level of competence is required. Basic understanding of human dishonesty of travelling people would be a start. Basic honesty with scientific reporting would also be helpful.

In Iran for example, based on the number of deaths, the mortality rate reverse engineered would mean they have around 4-5,000 cases.

Iran have reported 593 cases with 205 newly listed today. They are reporting at a rate of around 10%.

Okay so it’s just those conditions that make it worse, thanks.

[Meclazine for Israel]

No problems.

You are asking the most relevant scientific question in everyone's mind at present:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-01/who-is-most-likely-to-get-coronavirus-children-appear-safe/12013842

[GP270watch]

The data about who's getting sick so far, that only tells us what happened not what's going to happen. Epidemics can run in waves, with spikes of deaths coming much later before the virus threat disappears. Let's hope for the best though.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The only reporting I would trust to watch about Coronavirus:  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/coronavirus/11996398

I never realised that the Chinese government were welding apartment complexes closed and not allowing people to move in and out of their homes. People are yelling from the balconies that their older relatives are trapped and dying.



So far, no children have been reported as having serious complications.

Reuters: Tyrone Siu

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Unfortunately, it appears that based on genetic similarities between the case recently discovered in Snohomish County WA and the very first case detected in the USA (way back in mid January), that COVID-19 has likely been circulating in the Seattle area for 6 weeks now without having been detected, which would apparently imply there are probably a few hundred currently un-detected infections in the Seattle area. See this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970442152472577

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233975581974228994

Hopefully the US/Washington State government will take some significant measures in response to this - I would hope that they will at least ban large public gatherings and close schools (the efficacy of closing schools is uncertain still because it is unknown how much children get/spread the virus, but this is a case where IMO it is best to err on the side of being safe) and at least discourage people from going out for non-essential reasons.

An implication of this, if it is indeed correct/borne out, is that there are probably similar un-detected clusters growing in other places. Many of them may be less than 6 weeks old, and hence smaller, but it seems highly unlikely that there are not some out there scattered around. This also was not picked up by flu monitoring/ILI, so that suggests that the virus can be spreading for a while (in this case for probably 6 weeks) without any statistical abnormalities being noticed.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

And there is also some other bad news for those of us who are young or middle aged. While the fatality rate is skewed towards older people, the distribution of "serious" cases requiring hospitalization is not so skewed towards older people and includes a lot more young people/middle aged people. And I don't know about you, but I don't particularly like the idea of having even a "serious" case or of having to be hospitalized. People who are younger make up a much larger share of the hospitalizations/serious cases relative to the deaths. An outright majority of all hospitalizations are from people under age 49, whereas for the regular seasonal flu an outright majority of hospitalizations are from page age 65+. Another thing about this is it would also imply that if you are an old and you get hospitalized, then the conditional probability of death given that you have been hospitalized is quite a bit higher than one would have previously suspected based on earlier information.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1233940433081896960

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1233942916529369089

That said, obviously this could change when more/better data comes out and there are some possible confounding factors.

But this suggests that it is a mistake for younger/middle aged people to just brush it off and think "only old people need to worry about getting infected, I won't have a serious case because I am not old."

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

They are already running out of hospital capacity in Italy, in particular ICU capacity. This is the really bad part about COVID-19, as opposed to the base fatality rate - it is how easy it is for more people to need professional medical care with expensive equipment than there is capacity to provide care and availability of said equipment.

The more it spreads, the more things get overwhelmed (like in Wuhan) if this keeps up.

https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1233951200061448193

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

First presumptive positive case in Rhode Island:

https://twitter.com/wpri12/status/1234115489154174978

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Sorry for the tweet-storm. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234109126864707585?ref_src=tw...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

White House coronavirus team is hard at work.
https://twitter.com/Rschooley/status/1233911031719583744

[Green Line]

White House coronavirus team is hard at work.
https://twitter.com/Rschooley/status/1233911031719583744

Oh no, people praying.  The horror!

[Middle-aged Europe]

While "President" Trump called coronavirus a "hoax" in front of his cult followers recently, Acting President Pence is touring the Sunday morning shows, warning the U.S. population that more coronavirus cases are coming:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/pence-azar-coronavirus-morning-shows-118411

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

While the White House response consists of "thoughts and prayers" (I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt on the 'thoughts' part) and catering to Donnie Dumb's ego and the American NaziRepublicans Party's xenophobia, we now have a confirmed case in Illinois.

Illinois officials say patient has tested positive for coronavirus

The Illinois Department of Public Health and the Cook County Department of Public Health confirmed to The Hill on Saturday that the patient’s tests resulted in “presumptive positives” and will need to be confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The patient is hospitalized in isolation and is being treated in compliance with CDC protocols. Public health officials are seeking people who were in contact with the patient to reduce the possible spread.

The state will request that the CDC send a team to Illinois to support their containment efforts.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

EVERYBODY PANIC

[GeorgiaModerate]

Delta Airlines is suspending flights to Milan, effective Tuesday.

[Crumpets]

That's what you want to see... :/

https://twitter.com/KIRO7Seattle/status/1233993919416811520

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump was right! 

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1234103982395621377

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Sorry for the tweet-storm. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234109126864707585?ref_src=tw...

God bless your Favorite President for working so hard for U-S-A! 🙏🙏🙏


It explains why # confirmed cases is relatively low compared to similar countries.