FL 2018: Why did Gillum do so badly compared to polls?

[voice_of_resistance]

In hindsight, I can see Gillum losing, being too left for Florida and all, but why then did he lead in basically every poll? Is this a case of people not wanting to be seen as racist by supporting DeSantis?

[Pericles]

A 4-point polling error is not great but isn't abnormal, especially for non presidential races.

[Hydera]

Lots of republican voters don't respond to surveys and it causes polls to be inaccurate hence how both Hillary and Gillum lost.

[TML]

Here’s a take by a Florida-based Democratic strategist:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/12/10/lets-talk-about-polling-again.html

Long story short, he thinks that FL is more difficult to poll than it seems, especially since most statewide races over the past decade have been decided by no more than 2%.

[Non Swing Voter]

It seemed like the youth turnout wasn't as great in FL as in other states in 2018.  Maybe that was part of the problem.  Florida is an old state, but the exit poll numbers looked really bad for Democrats.  They seemed to not get their people out. 

Also, it seems like he did a bit softer than expected with hispanics in South Florida?

[Hydera]

It seemed like the youth turnout wasn't as great in FL as in other states in 2018.  Maybe that was part of the problem.  Florida is an old state, but the exit poll numbers looked really bad for Democrats.  They seemed to not get their people out. 

Also, it seems like he did a bit softer than expected with hispanics in South Florida?

A lot of hispanics in South Florida are Cubans, Venezuelans, Colombians. Three groups who did not have a great history with communism. Thats not to say that Gillum ran on socialism but his association with Bernie played against him.

[2016]

In the Final Week of the Campaign DeSantis publish the most devastating Ad calling Gillum "Venezuela Gillum Socialist" and that stuck. Gillum underperformed Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade costing him the Election.

[Sir Mohamed]

There is a pattern I've noticed: Undecided voters in the final days often break towards to the GOP. Dem candidates more often underperform polls. And as already said, the polls in this race were mostly close.

[wbrocks67]

There is a pattern I've noticed: Undecided voters in the final days often break towards to the GOP. Dem candidates more often underperform polls. And as already said, the polls in this race were mostly close.

That may have been true in 2016, but not in 2018. Undecideds broke towards Dems in 2018.

[Sol]

It seemed like the youth turnout wasn't as great in FL as in other states in 2018.  Maybe that was part of the problem.  Florida is an old state, but the exit poll numbers looked really bad for Democrats.  They seemed to not get their people out. 

Also, it seems like he did a bit softer than expected with hispanics in South Florida?

A lot of hispanics in South Florida are Cubans, Venezuelans, Colombians. Three groups who did not have a great history with communism. Thats not to say that Gillum ran on socialism but his association with Bernie played against him.

And Latinos are challenging to poll in general considering the language barrier--especially since Miami is a very Spanish-speaking city.

[Mr. Smith]

He didn't. He was ahead by 3 at the end, this is an R+3 state, regardless of waves.

The truth is, Matt Caldwell was the one that underperformed based on everything.

[Skill and Chance]

I think the most likely explanation is dramatic underperformance with voters who speak Spanish at home vs. what the polling models would have expected for a generic Obama/Clinton era Dem. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gillum is a tax and spend liberal and with an R state legislators, FL like NH is anti tax government.  Gwen Graham would have won

[Virginiá]

In the Final Week of the Campaign DeSantis publish the most devastating Ad calling Gillum "Venezuela Gillum Socialist" and that stuck. Gillum underperformed Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade costing him the Election.

People don't care about TV ads. Campaigns keep lighting money on fire with ad buys, but as far as I know, no reputable study suggests they move the electorate in any lasting, noteworthy way.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

In the Final Week of the Campaign DeSantis publish the most devastating Ad calling Gillum "Venezuela Gillum Socialist" and that stuck. Gillum underperformed Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade costing him the Election.

People don't care about TV ads. Campaigns keep lighting money on fire with ad buys, but as far as I know, no reputable study suggests they move the electorate in any lasting, noteworthy way.

There are a few obvious exceptions, like Joni Ernst’s castrating ad and Jason Kander’s background check ad were very notable in shifting their races

[Tekken_Guy]

A lot of Republicans didn’t want to talk to pollsters out of fear of being called racist. That’s why the polls underestimated Rick Scott as well. He was polling dead even with Nelson, and Nelson began to take over once Gillum got the nomination. The Kavanaugh hearings also had an effect; many of Braun’s and Hawley’s voters also avoided polls during that time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gullium was Black and just like Abrams and Ben Jealous lost, Graham would have gotten the Gov mansion

[Virginiá]

In the Final Week of the Campaign DeSantis publish the most devastating Ad calling Gillum "Venezuela Gillum Socialist" and that stuck. Gillum underperformed Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade costing him the Election.

People don't care about TV ads. Campaigns keep lighting money on fire with ad buys, but as far as I know, no reputable study suggests they move the electorate in any lasting, noteworthy way.

There are a few obvious exceptions, like Joni Ernst’s castrating ad and Jason Kander’s background check ad were very notable in shifting their races

I'm more of the thought that those ads just give us tangible actions that we can associate with their performance, when the reality is, for example, the Kander ad was released less than 2 months from election day, and that is close to the time frame where the polls start shifting closer to where the results will actually end up, as voters start making up their minds. But it doesn't mean the ads did anything. Sure, we notice it and think about it, seeing as we're election junkies, but most Americans just tune that stuff out.

I guess it's possible an ad can sway people, such as maybe if it was used to drop a bombshell scandal about the candidate's opponent (or something equally damaging), but the way ads are used by campaigns right now is basically just a scam by consultants and other hanger-ons who hope to milk the electoral gravy train. Everyone just keeps dropping millions on ads because no one has any clue what they are doing and yet are so desperate to win that they will sell their soul for more campaign cash so they can blow it on strategies that add nothing of value.

[sg0508]

Response for disaster relief is also important. It helped Jeb Bush and Rick Scott as governor, and even likely helped George Bush hold onto Florida in '92.

It proved disastrous for Kathleen Blanco in LA and Gillum's overall hurricane relief effort for "Michael" was seen as less than satisfactory.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Gullium was Black and just like Abrams and Ben Jealous lost, Graham would have gotten the Gov mansion

Obama won Florida twice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gullium was Black and just like Abrams and Ben Jealous lost, Graham would have gotten the Gov mansion

Obama won Florida twice.

Obama had Biden as Veep, whom appeal to Floridians, that's why he and Bernie are in contention with each other for FL primary votes. Also, Prez doesn't have control over FL no income tax policy, the Gov does; consequently,  that's why Bernie or Biden in 2020 can win FL 29 EC votes. TPA and Crist home district, is gonna be swing

[brucejoel99]

Gullium was Black and just like Abrams and Ben Jealous lost, Graham would have gotten the Gov mansion

Gillum didn't lose because of his skin color; racism is not to blame for his loss. He lost because Florida voters decided they didn't want his (&, coincidentally, Abrams & Jealous') brand of progressive leftism in our Governor's Mansion in Tallahassee.