That's my prediction (based on current trends) of the whole case with Electoral College. After GOP candidates would be no longer able to win in Texas and/or Florida in presidential elections, they wouldn't be able to win federally, therefore Republicans will start to talk about a possibility of abolishing or reforming EC.
Texas is still red. Florida is trending red. By the time Texas flips, the entire Midwest except Illinois will be reliably red. The Northeast will be more competetive then.
The electoral college is absolutely necessary for this constitutional republic; it gives power to the individual states and guarantees that the president has a wide coalition. With a national popular vote, cheating and voter fraud would be drastically empowered. Some blue states are allowing non-citizens to vote and they have many dead people on voter rolls. The electoral college confines the effect of those unfair policies to only those areas and not the whole country. A national popular vote would also mean 140 million vote recounts, which would mean more fraud, more work for election workers, and more division and controversy.
The Democrats want the national popular vote because they are the ones who are struggling to build a winning coalition. The Democrats' plan of the national popular vote goes hand-in-hand with their plan to give more rights to illegal aliens (including voting). They just want more power and bigger government, they don't care about Americans.
You forgot to say that EC favours smaller states, and keeps them not to be overpowered by large ones in all of your Republican propaganda. Automatic voter registration (present in so many, many countries) would solve your Republican fears of election stealing and other controversies by the corrupt, dehumanized and ruthless Democrats.
I dunno. If the GOP starts losing TX, even narrow margins, there is no way a GOP candidate would come within striking distance to win the NPV, unless CA, NY and IL are trending red. Even if the Mid West, which loses population, largely goes GOP by modest margins. In this scenario, AZ, GA and NC will also vote blue.
There may have been a serious bipartisan attempt to end the EC if W lost the 2004 election by narrowly flipping OH to Kerry. W would still have won the PV under this scenario, and by a larger margin than Gore did in 2000.
Nevertheless, within next few good years, there will be a national debate on EC and the things will start to clarify. I uphold my view above that the loss of TX or/and FL will be a tipping point for Republicans to seriously talk about EC.
