2020 Timeline - American Carnage: To Hell And Back

[Banana Republican]

2020 Timeline - American Carnage: To Hell And Back




Part 1: Prelude - the Fateful Vote

January 30, 2020

As Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar sit in the United States Senate at the Impeachment trial of President Donald John Trump, awaiting the final vote on whether to Convict and Remove Donald Trump as President, Ann Selzer is in the middle of conducting her final pre-caucus Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register releases is final pre-caucus Iowa Poll, conducted by Ann Selzer.

But at this moment, calls for the poll come to a sudden stop. Everyone in the call center gathers around the live stream on Selzer's laptop, transfixed... The last few callers who were finishing interviews with voters straggle in to watch history unfold...



"The Clerk will call the roll ... On the first charge ...

...

Senator Collins... Senator Collins, Nay

...

Senator Gardner... Senator Gardner, Nay

...

Senator Jones... Senator Jones, Nay

...

Senator Klobuchar... Senator Klobuchar, Aye

...

Senator Manchin... Senator Manchin, Aye

...

Senator Murkowski... Senator Murkowski, Aye

...

Senator Romney... Senator Romney, Aye

...

Senator Sanders... Senator Sanders, Aye

...

Senator Warren... Senator Warren, Aye

..."

And with that, all Democrats except for Doug Jones vote Aye, and all Republicans except for Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney vote Nay. There are 48 votes to Remove Trump, and 52 to Acquit him. On the second charge, the vote is identical, except Romney votes Nay.

After the vote, CNN Reporter Manu Raju manages to catch Senator Joe Manchin in a hallway, and asks him, "Senator, why did you vote to convict? Your state voted overwhelmingly for President Trump."

Manchin replies, "Because sometimes you just have to do the right thing because it is the right thing."

Raju follows up,  "Will you be running for re-election in 2024?"

To Raju's surprise, Manchin actually replies, "I don't plan to, no. This place is irredeemable. I'll serve out my term, but then I am done with this."



FOX National Poll:

Trump Approval Rating: 43% approve, 52% disapprove

Remove Trump?: 50% remove, 47% don't remove

National Democratic Primary Vote:

Biden 28
Sanders 23
Warren 17
Buttigieg 12
Bloomberg 9
Steyer 4
Klobuchar 3

[Banana Republican]

Part 2: The Iowa Poll and the Deal

February 2, 2020

Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll was released in the Sunday edition of the Des Moines Register on February 2, 2020. The poll found Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg tied for first place, with Biden and Warren trailing a few points behind. The poll showed modest movement in favor of Buttigieg and Biden, as compared to the previous Iowa poll in January, although this was within the margin of error.

Selzer Iowa Democratic Caucus Poll:

Bernie Sanders 20% (+0%)
Pete Buttigieg 20% (+4%)
Joe Biden 18% (+3%)
Elizabeth Warren 17% (+0%)
Amy Klobuchar 8% (+2%)
Andrew Yang 4% (-1%)
Tom Steyer 3% (+1%)
Michael Bloomberg 2% (+1%)
Tulsi Gabbard 1% (-1%)

Later that evening, the Buttigieg and Klobuchar campaigns made a joint announcement of a caucus deal - in any precincts where they were below viability, they would instruct their supporters to caucus for the other candidate. Unconfirmed rumors swirled that Buttigieg may have offered Klobuchar the Vice Presidency, or perhaps a cabinet position in exchange for the deal, should Buttigieg become President. However, Klobuchar also potentially stood to benefit from the deal in some precincts in small rural counties where she had campaigned might be viable, but Buttigieg not.

[Banana Republican]

Part 3: The Iowa Caucuses

February 3, 2020

As dawn broke in Iowa, the world of American politics tingled with the nagging itch of uncertain anticipation. As is usually the case on the day of the caucuses, there was a sense that something was coming, and that it could well have momentous implications. But what exactly was coming barrelling its way into history remained cloudy and unclear. To some, it seemed like Biden and/or Buttigieg were surging forward to victory, perhaps partly because of the difficulty of campaigning during the Impeachment trial for Sanders and Warren. Others suspected that a large youth turnout might propel Sanders to victory, or possibly that the women's vote could still deliver for Warren, as it had delivered for many women candidates in the 2018 democratic congressional primaries.

The initial entrance polls showed Bernie Sanders with a modest 3 point lead at 27%:

Initial Unadjusted Entrance Polls:

Bernie Sanders 27
Pete Buttigieg 24
Joe Biden 22
Elizabeth Warren 15
Amy Klobuchar 6
Andrew Yang 5
Tom Steyer 1
Michael Bloomberg 0
Tulsi Gabbard 0

Because Klobuchar and Yang were below 15% statewide, they were also below the 15% viability threshold in many precincts, and many of their supporters had to switch to their second choices. In addition, since Elizabeth Warren was at exactly 15% in the early exit polls, there were also a number of precincts where she was below viability and her supporters had to go to their second choices.

After the caucuses, reports emerged that at many caucus sites, Iowans looked on their phones at the entrance poll results, and the entrance poll results became a topic of discussion in the caucuses as voters re-allocated their preferences after the initial counts. Voters saw that Yang and Klobuchar would not be viable choices, and also that Warren was close to the viability threshold, and that Sanders was apparently leading, with Buttigieg in 2nd as the best possibility to "stop Bernie" for those voters who didn't want Sanders to win.

As a result, strategic voting occurred in a great many precincts during the 2nd choice re-allocation process. In accordance with the Buttigieg-Klobuchar deal, a great many Klobuchar supporters in precincts where she was not viable probably would have caucused for her anyway, but were all the more inclined to go over to Buttigieg. However, reports emerged of some Elizabeth Warren supporters also abandoning Warren and re-allocating (with some going to Buttigieg, some to Sanders, and also a few to Biden) after the initial counts and after seeing the entrance polls, even in some precincts where Warren was viable on the initial count.

When actual results began to be released, they showed a tight race between Sanders and Buttigieg. In some precincts, voters were still allocating to second choices while other precincts had already reported their results. Much as entrance polls had already influenced the, reports emerged of voters looking at early results on their cell phones, discussing the partial early results, and then switching their preferences based partly on those early results.

As one of many bizarre anecdotes that later emerged, in one caucus in Cedar Rapids where an ABC News reporter was present, in which Biden was barely viable after the initial count (with 16% initial support), after a Biden supporter saw the initial results on her phone showing a close race between Sanders and Buttigieg along with the entrance polls, 5 Biden supporters decided to abandon Biden and go over to Buttigieg. This was enough to make Biden not viable, and so most of the rest of the Biden supporters also followed over to Buttigieg, some went to Sanders, and 3 voters even went over to Warren (although a few were very angry at this turn of events and simply went home).

The dueling twitter hashtags #SwitchToBernie and #SwitchToPete both began trending on twitter.

Final Precinct Delgate Results:

Pete Buttigieg 32
Bernie Sanders 31
Joe Biden 23
Elizabeth Warren 11
Amy Klobuchar 2
Andrew Yang 1
Tom Steyer 0
Michael Bloomberg 0
Tulsi Gabbard 0

In addition to the precinct delegate results, initial preference results were also released. However, they were released with a slight delay.

Initial Preference Card Results:

Bernie Sanders 25
Pete Buttigieg 23
Joe Biden 21
Elizabeth Warren 17
Amy Klobuchar 9
Andrew Yang 3
Tom Steyer 1
Michael Bloomberg 1
Tulsi Gabbard 0

In contrast to the final precinct delegate results, the initial preference results ended up showing a Sanders lead. Furthermore, they also showed Elizabeth Warren 2 points higher than the entrance polls, and 6 points higher than the final precinct delegate results. The situation was unclear and contested, and many newspaper headlines went to print with headlines such as "Buttigieg wins Iowa amidst confusion" or "Buttigieg the apparent winner, chaos reigns in Iowa."

In the aftermath, the Sanders campaign and many Sanders supporters pointed to the preference card results and argued that Sanders had won the popular vote, and complaints about how the Iowa Democratic Party had released the results proliferated across social media. Some vocal supporters of Sanders on social media claimed that the caucuses were being stolen from Sanders. This was then seized upon by supporters of Biden and Buttigieg to attack Sanders, and these attacks were later found to have been amplified by bots.

Anger and attacks attacks from many also manifested itself at the news media for the way that entrance poll results had influenced the caucus itself. It was argued by some that the media should not have published entrance poll results until the caucuses were over and everyone had voted - after all, in primaries the media does not publish exit poll results until voting has closed.

The Warren campaign and Warren supporters also blamed the Entrance Polls for their inaccuracy and underestimating Warren's support, making it appear that she had less support than she did in reality, and making it appear that she would be viable in many fewer precincts than was actually the case. Since voters looked at the entrance polls as well as some early results during the caucuses, this caused some Warren supporters who would have stuck with Warren to switch to other candidates.

Biden supporters also complained, in particular pointing to what happened in the Cedar Rapids caucus, where the ABC news footage was shown endlessly on television over the next few days, showing how Biden became unviable due to early reporting of results in other precincts and entrance polls.

Donald Trump also took to twitter and sent almost 100 tweets over the course of the evening, claiming in particular that the DNC was once again rigging the process against Bernie. Trump, and also other Republicans, sought to sow division and turmoil amongst democratic ranks. Investigative reporting over the next few days found that these claims by Trump, and also other complaints about the process from multiple campaigns and supporters of all candidates (including Sanders, Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, and also attacks by Buttigieg supporters) were magnified by a mysterious army of bots on twitter and also many other social media platforms. The bots generally were found to highlight the most extreme claims and complaints. Some social media accounts claiming to be Iowa voters were later found to be fakes, and to have reported incorrect and sensationalized stories from the caucuses.

[Banana Republican]

Part 4: New Hampshire

February 11, 2020

The week after the Iowa caucuses was a tumultuous one. The day afterwards, Trump gave his State of the Union address. In the speech, Trump spoke at length about how he saw himself "vindicated" and "cleared" by the U.S. Senate of the Impeachment charges brought by the House. In terms of domestic policy, he focused on immigration in particular and the economy. In the field of foreign policy, Trump pledged to crack down on corruption in Ukraine, get European allies to foot the bill for NATO, and to ensure that Iran would not get a nuclear weapon. Afterwards, Democrats widely condemned his policy proposals on immigration, in particular an announcement that his administration was working on a "strengthened" travel ban for Muslims, and also a call for reduced legal immigration.

Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race the day after her disappointing showing in the Iowa caucuses. However, she held off on making any immediate endorsement. In the week after the caucuses, New Hampshire polls generally seemed to show a collapse in Warren's numbers, following her fourth place finish in Iowa. This had the effect of pushing Sanders into the lead in most polls.

University of New Hampshire "Granite State Poll":

Trump Approval Rating: 32% approve, 44% disapprove

NH Democratic Primary Vote:

Sanders 36
Buttigieg 20
Biden 18
Warren 8
Bloomberg 2
Steyer 1
Bennet 1

On February 7, a debate was held in New Hampshire in which Buttigieg and Sanders were the center of attention following their close Iowa finish. A series of questions regarding the process in Iowa and the reaction in social media started off the debate. The first question went to Buttigieg, who uncharacteristically slipped. He argued that he had won the caucuses and attacking Bernie Sanders supporters and emphasizing possible foreign involvement in amplifying their complaints, while appearing to be too dismissive of possible foreign involvement in amplifying criticisms by his own supporters of Bernie Sanders supporters. After Buttigieg answered, all the other candidates formed a united front and roundly condemned reports of possible foreign interference on social media, with Bernie, Biden, and Warren all singling out Russia as a likely culprit which "must be investigated."

Sanders said:

"We must protect our elections, our democratic primary, from foreign interference. But you know what, here is how we do that. None of us (except I guess maybe Pete) is happy about the way things played out with the process in Iowa. Yes, we do need to make sure exit polls and the results are not released while people are still voting. But the way we defeat Vladimir Putin, if he is the one behind this, and the way we defeat Donald Trump in November, is to focus on the issues. We have a country where millions of people still lack adequate health care, where income inequality has been increasing for decades, and the future of our planet is threatened by climate change. Vladimir Putin, and also frankly the news media, by giving so much coverage to this rather than to those real issues, wants us to forget about the real issues and fight each other. I won't do it, and the best way you can fight this is to decide yourself on the issues. Tell CNN to run some news stories about why Billionaires like our friend Mike Bloomberg over there are paying a lower tax rate than working people, rather than another news story about the Iowa caucus process trying to divide us against ourselves. How about that, Anderson, maybe you can do a story about that some time, instead of another story fomenting division and playing into Vladimir Putin's hand?"

This answer brought the audience to its feet. After this, the rest of the candidates followed Sanders in a similar way (though without criticizing the debate moderators), but the moment, the sound bites, and the contrast to Buttigieg seemed to have gone in Sanders' favor.

When the results came in, they showed Bernie Sanders with a solid lead with 42% of the vote, Biden coming in second at 26%, and Buttigieg 3rd with 24%.

Final New Hampshire Primary Results:

Sanders 42
Biden 26
Buttigieg 24
Warren 4
Bloomberg 3
Steyer 1
Bennet 1

Over the next few days, Warren and Buttigieg both dropped out of the race, with Buttigieg endorsing Biden and Warren endorsing Sanders, setting up a showdown between Biden and Sanders in Nevada, South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday. In Buttigieg's case, while he could have continued, he calculated that he no longer had a chance to win the nomination, and wanted to preserve credibility to run in the future, without what looked like upcoming losses in Nevada, South Carolina, and many other states being added to his record. Behind the scenes, Biden also pledged that if he won, he would give Buttigieg an important cabinet position to help him keep a high national profile and help him build experience and his resume for a future run for the Presidency.


CNN National Poll:

Trump Approval Rating: 42% approve, 50% disapprove

Was Trump Guilty?: 45% guilty, 43% not guilty

National Democratic Primary Vote:

Biden 31
Sanders 26
Warren 8
Buttigieg 14
Bloomberg 9
Steyer 5

[Banana Republican]

Part 5: Lead up to Nevada and South Carolina

Mid February, 2020

Following New Hampshire, and with Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren dropping out, the race narrowed into a Bernie vs Biden contest. This was frequently compared to the race in 2016, with Bernie again representing the outsider, this time challenging the establishmentarian Biden instead of Hillary Clinton. However, Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer remained in the race, potentially complicating things.

At a debate in Las Vegas on February 19, there were four candidates present: Biden, Bernie, Steyer, and Bloomberg. The debate turned out to be surprisingly uneventful between Biden and Bernie. Instead, the biggest moments and the biggest contrasts seemed to be between Biden and Bernie as contrasted to Bloomberg and Steyer. At one point early in the debate, Sanders said "You know, there are 4 candidates up here on this stage. Half are billionaires. There is something wrong here." Biden agreed, saying "There is something wrong with our process, this is the Democratic party. As much as I respect Tom and Mike for all the good work they have done, our nomination is not for sale to the highest biddder."

The big question is what impact would the billionaires have on the outcome in Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond - and when, if ever, would they drop out. Would they have an effect of hurting Biden, or of hurting Sanders?


CBS/Yougov Nevada Caucus Poll:

Sanders 38
Biden 33
Steyer 11
Bloomberg 8
Yang 6

CBS/Yougov South Carolina Primary Poll:

Biden 54
Sanders 27
Bloomberg 7
Steyer 5
Yang 1

ABC/WaPo National Poll:

Trump Approval Rating: 37% approve, 55% disapprove

National Democratic Primary Vote:

Sanders 38
Biden 37
Bloomberg 11
Steyer 5
Yang 3
Gabbard 1

Question to any interested readers - what do you think Bloomberg/Steyer would realistically do in this situation (I am not sure exactly what I will have them do in the timeline yet).