MI (Epic-Mra) : Trump trails every democrats but Bloomberg does the best
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Author Topic: MI (Epic-Mra) : Trump trails every democrats but Bloomberg does the best  (Read 3102 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: January 17, 2020, 02:39:31 AM »
Quote from: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on January 15, 2020, 08:22:21 PM
Quote from: Impeachment Inquiry on January 15, 2020, 11:38:25 AM
If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

Iowa could be as well.

No, it couldn’t.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #26 on: January 17, 2020, 02:47:19 AM »


Just a great thread all around.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #27 on: January 17, 2020, 04:23:25 AM »

The thing that annoys me about the IN 2008 comparison, is that it ignores the fact that both IN and MI are states that are trending away from the Democratic party. I could see MI being a tilt D state in the 2020s, but it wouldn't make any sense for it to be a fluke. It will continue to be competitive for the same reasons that IN is no longer competitive.
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SN2903
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« Reply #28 on: January 17, 2020, 03:30:06 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2020, 03:33:27 PM by SN2903 »
Quote from: Platitudes And Senility on January 17, 2020, 04:23:25 AM

The thing that annoys me about the IN 2008 comparison, is that it ignores the fact that both IN and MI are states that are trending away from the Democratic party. I could see MI being a tilt D state in the 2020s, but it wouldn't make any sense for it to be a fluke. It will continue to be competitive for the same reasons that IN is no longer competitive.
Exactly Bush got almost 48% in Michigan in 2004 and won Macomb County by 3 points and almost won Oakland County.Rick Snyder was a 2 term governor and won easily both times. Michigan is def moving right in the last 15 years. It was lean D from 1992 to 2006 2007.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #29 on: January 17, 2020, 05:23:39 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2020, 05:30:12 PM by Impeachment Inquiry »
Quote from: Platitudes And Senility on January 17, 2020, 04:23:25 AM

The thing that annoys me about the IN 2008 comparison, is that it ignores the fact that both IN and MI are states that are trending away from the Democratic party. I could see MI being a tilt D state in the 2020s, but it wouldn't make any sense for it to be a fluke. It will continue to be competitive for the same reasons that IN is no longer competitive.

Sorry if you are annoyed, but what a lot of people do not get is that for every rural voter Republicans gain they lose one or more voters in more in urbanized areas. Kent County was a hardcore Republican county that bolstered Republican statewide margins, but in 2018 3 out of 4 statewide Democrats carried it. Democrats picked up 2 House seats. Parts of the state are trending right, but the more populated portions are trending left. But I'm not going to argue about it.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #30 on: January 17, 2020, 05:59:53 PM »
Trump is gonna lose MI, with or without McComb county because he broke the law and he wants the R Justice department to continue to shield him from prosecution and let statue of limitations run out in 2024. Voters arent gonna let that happen. Trump must be be removed from office in 2021 by the voters and go to jail
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #31 on: January 17, 2020, 10:33:05 PM »
Quote from: Platitudes And Senility on January 17, 2020, 04:23:25 AM

The thing that annoys me about the IN 2008 comparison, is that it ignores the fact that both IN and MI are states that are trending away from the Democratic party. I could see MI being a tilt D state in the 2020s, but it wouldn't make any sense for it to be a fluke. It will continue to be competitive for the same reasons that IN is no longer competitive.

Also, the idea that IA in 2020 and IN in 2012 (or even IA and MI in 2020) are in any way comparable is ridiculous. IA could certainly trend Democratic, but it’s not going to revert to being a Democratic-leaning state several points more Democratic than the nation as a whole, and it’s definitely not going to vote more than 5 points to the left of OH.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2020, 11:36:51 PM »
LOL Bloomberg winning Macomb?Huh? Who were they polling?
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #33 on: January 20, 2020, 09:41:32 AM »
It's not a "junk" poll. It's a small poll (600 voters = 4% margin of error). Have any other polls shown Bloomberg doing better against Trump than Biden or Sanders? (By the way, there's a secret formula for margin of error: for a sample of n voters, it's 1 divided by the square root of n).

Macomb going for Bloomberg by 10 is a bit surprising, though. Even with an oversample of, say, 120 Macomb voters, there's still a 9% margin of error (so the true Macomb margin could be 50-42 Trump) plus the fact that Trump polls low, especially in Macomb and other places with lots of white Catholics and Evangelicals. (The reason being such voters are aware enough to know that many interpret white support for Trump as racist, among other things, and won't tell a stranger they plan to vote for Trump).

I still predict either Biden or Sanders narrowly wins MI-- though I won't be shocked if Trump wins MI.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #34 on: January 24, 2020, 10:29:02 PM »
Biden winning 50-44 is actually pretty believable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: January 24, 2020, 11:30:36 PM »
Quote from: Wolverine22 on January 24, 2020, 10:29:02 PM
Biden winning 50-44 is actually pretty believable.

No Biden or Bernie winning 50-46 is believable
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SN2903
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« Reply #36 on: January 25, 2020, 10:33:01 AM »
Quote from: Wolverine22 on January 24, 2020, 10:29:02 PM
Biden winning 50-44 is actually pretty believable.
No it's not. MI polls are crap. Trump is at the very most maybe slightly behind Biden in MI right now, but he hasn't started campaigning yet.
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