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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  WV-Club for Growth poll: Trump almost at 70% vs. Biden/Sanders
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Author Topic: WV-Club for Growth poll: Trump almost at 70% vs. Biden/Sanders  (Read 3080 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 15, 2020, 01:47:34 pm »

66% Trump
31% Biden
 
66% Trump
29% Sanders

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/478408-poll-west-virginia-voters-would-view-manchin-negatively-if-he-votes-to
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Cinemark
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2020, 02:14:00 pm »

Even then, both are doing better than Hillary.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2020, 02:49:02 pm »

R internal trying to push Manchin to vote to acquit Trump, but obviously WV will be a Trumpslide, and he could crack 70%.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2020, 03:15:03 pm »

Even then, both are doing better than Hillary.

Yes, this is quite a good poll for Dems. If it is accurate, it suggests that Dems (both Biden and Bernie) should pretty easily win MI and PA.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2020, 03:27:03 pm »

Manchin is a really, really lucky politician. Itís downright pathetic that Republicans werenít even competent enough to flip a Democratic Senate seat in a Trump +42 state.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2020, 05:04:25 pm »

Manchin is a really, really lucky politician. Itís downright pathetic that Republicans werenít even competent enough to flip a Democratic Senate seat in a Trump +42 state.

On this we can agree, republican operatives are some of the most biggest fu**cking morons in the country
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Canis
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2020, 05:04:41 pm »

lean d if sanders is the nominee
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2020, 05:06:17 pm »

This poll is not that great for Trump, if he is doing worse in WV than in 2016 it's hard to see how he can win PA again.
Now, it's a pretty well known fact that polls tend to underestimate republicans in West Virginia, Trump could probably cross the 70% symbolic line
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2020, 05:11:53 pm »

This poll is not that great for Trump, if he is doing worse in WV than in 2016 it's hard to see how he can win PA again.
Now, it's a pretty well known fact that polls tend to underestimate republicans in West Virginia, Trump could probably cross the 70% symbolic line

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#West_Virginia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#West_Virginia

Yeah, based on these previous polling numbers I'm pretty sure they're underestimating Trump and that Atlas is getting overly excited about them somehow being good news.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2020, 05:30:57 pm »


Anyone who disagrees with that is obviously a fascist.





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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2020, 07:13:38 pm »

But rose twitter told me that Bernie would be able to flip back West Virginia because of muh revolution!
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Ridin' with Biden
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2020, 08:20:35 pm »

This would be Safe D with Big Don Blankenship/Richard Ojeda. It would also have mega coattails which would flip KY/The Virginia coal fields and OH as well.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2020, 06:28:28 am »


HE. WON. EVERY. COUNTY. IN. 2016.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2020, 06:29:30 am »

But rose twitter told me that Bernie would be able to flip back West Virginia because of muh revolution!

Wait until Bernie does a rally in Wheeling. All those Republican leaders will be eating out of his hands!

Did you hear that he won every county in West Virginia in 2016?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2020, 08:52:30 am »
« Edited: January 16, 2020, 08:56:16 am by Cory Booker »

Dems arent looking at Prez numbers, but downballot races like Gov and Senator are gonna get competetive and Congress
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2020, 01:43:32 pm »

If Trump is only winning WV 66-31, he is probably losing the EC. I would take this result in a heartbeat.
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TML
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« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2020, 05:22:20 pm »

Even though Sanders swept WV in the 2016 primary, exit polls from back then indicated that among Democratic primary voters, 33% of them planned to vote for Trump against Sanders in the GE (36% of them for Trump against Clinton), which is a clear indication that Sanders wouldn't have been favored against Trump in the GE (remember that Bush & McCain each won 30% of Democrats in WV in 2004 & 2008, respectively).
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2020, 07:23:39 pm »

If Trump is only winning WV 66-31, he is probably losing the EC. I would take this result in a heartbeat.

If he wins WV by 35 points, compared to the 41 points he won it by in 2016, it almost certainly means he's losing PA because he's not getting the margins he needs in the T, and quite possibly NC and GA as well.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2020, 09:34:52 pm »

Even though Sanders swept WV in the 2016 primary, exit polls from back then indicated that among Democratic primary voters, 33% of them planned to vote for Trump against Sanders in the GE (36% of them for Trump against Clinton), which is a clear indication that Sanders wouldn't have been favored against Trump in the GE (remember that Bush & McCain each won 30% of Democrats in WV in 2004 & 2008, respectively).

I know, you know, we all know, but red rose Twitter will just keep posting "HE WON EVERY COUNTY" and will put clap emojis between the words if we still disagree.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2020, 12:55:34 am »

If Trump is only winning WV 66-31, he is probably losing the EC. I would take this result in a heartbeat.

If he wins WV by 35 points, compared to the 41 points he won it by in 2016, it almost certainly means he's losing PA because he's not getting the margins he needs in the T, and quite possibly NC and GA as well.

Ohio would be in heavy contention in such a hypothetical too.
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
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« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2020, 02:28:26 am »

I would suggest not to take the result of WV too literally. The state dramatically voted for Trump in 2016 and is likely to see to reverse a bit of that trend back. I also expected Biden and Sanders to do even better than this. The state isn't competitive. And I wouldn't draw conclusions based on this poll to extrapolate to other states. This is still a good poll for Trump. This is nowhere near a 2008 and 2012 result and such polls tend to underestimate Republicans.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2020, 04:25:48 am »

Even though Sanders swept WV in the 2016 primary, exit polls from back then indicated that among Democratic primary voters, 33% of them planned to vote for Trump against Sanders in the GE (36% of them for Trump against Clinton), which is a clear indication that Sanders wouldn't have been favored against Trump in the GE (remember that Bush & McCain each won 30% of Democrats in WV in 2004 & 2008, respectively).

Sandernists aren't exactly the most rational persons on this earth, you know
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2020, 05:28:11 am »

I would suggest not to take the result of WV too literally.

But should we take it seriously?
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President Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2020, 05:58:27 am »

R internal trying to push Manchin to vote to acquit Trump, but obviously WV will be a Trumpslide, and he could crack 70%.

I doubt Manchin runs again in 2024 (and if he does he probably loses), so it seems to me there isnít a big political incentive to acquit.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #24 on: January 17, 2020, 12:43:21 pm »

Trump will surpass 70% in West Virginia, regardless of whether or not heís re-elected.  I said the same thing some time ago.
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