WI-Marquette Law: Biden +4, Sanders +1, Buttigieg -2, Warren -3

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Impeachment support in WI will inevitably go down from 47% once Trump gets justifiably acquitted.

Note that Trump outperformed 2016 Wisconsin polling significantly. There's already the possibility that he'd win it against Biden if it was held today, and there's also the possibility that his numbers will also go up! I can see a Trump margin of victory of maybe around 4% or even a bit more if all goes well.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Impeachment support in WI will inevitably go down from 47% once Trump gets justifiably acquitted.

Note that Trump outperformed 2016 Wisconsin polling significantly. There's already the possibility that he'd win it against Biden if it was held today, and there's also the possibility that his numbers will also go up! I can see a Trump margin of victory of maybe around 4% or even a bit more if all goes well.

I'm getting kind of sick of this mindset.

Yes, swing state polling was off in 2016. But that does not mean swing state polling is off now. And I should note Marquette nailed the governors race in 2018.

You may end up very disappointed if Trump overperforms again.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

I could even see it going up to a little past 50%! Don't be too pessimistic SN2903.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

This is primarily due to improper weighting by the pollsters in 2016.  Do you think pollsters never learn or adjust their models?  For some pollsters this might be true, but not for the good ones (of which Marquette is certainly one).  Just because this happened in 2016 does not mean it's guaranteed to happen in 2020; you're making the same mistake that Democrats did by assuming that what was true in 2012 would also be true in 2016.

Nitpick all you want but you can't deny that things look much better for Trump in January 2020 than they did in January 2016.

And let's see how polling is by late October before we declare Wisconsin to be Lean D for Joe or Bernie, even if these Marquette numbers are accurate they will undoubtedly change over the course of the campaign. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a rerun of the 1968 disaster at Milwaukee this year!

[I Can Now Die Happy]

WI is lean R

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Why would the polls notoriously undercount his support now?  This is not 2016.

There are still many Trump supporters who are shy because of the unjustified vitriol against them, or who simply don't respond to phone polls.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Why does warren consistently underperform sanders in Ge polls even though their platform is same?

Despite being similar ideologically similar I would say Warren is perceived as being more of a elitist type candidate than Sanders is. Perceptions matter much more than actual policy unfortunately.

Welcome to Atlas! Do your best to live up to my example.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors.

I am confident that the first two factors you mentioned will be better for us, and the third factor quite possibly could still be better for us. Marquette was right on in 2018 but Trump is a much stronger candidate than Leah Vukmir and Scott Walker.