MI (Epic-Mra) : Trump trails every democrats but Bloomberg does the best

[Frenchrepublican]

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/01/15/mike-bloomberg-other-democrats-lead-donald-trump-michigan-poll/4469175002/

Matchups :
Bloomberg leads 49/42
Biden leads 50/44
Sanders leads 50/45
Warren leads 48/45

Small sample but still very notable :’’Bloomberg leads Trump 51%-41% in Macomb, according to the poll, and Sanders 49%-45%. Because of the smaller sample size from one count, however, the margin of error would be far greater than 4 points, and should be taken into account.’’

[Frenchrepublican]

Also interesting to note how Biden margins are shrinking. Last April he was leading Trump by 13, in June by 11, in August by 10 and now by only 6.

[Frenchrepublican]

It is telling that Trump won Macomb County  (a suburban area to the north of Detroit) by 11%... and he is down by anywhere from 4% to Sanders to 10% to Bloomberg. Such is more than enough to swing Michigan as a whole away from Trump.

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

Indiana had the perfect storm for Defeating Republicans there in 2008. Figure that one part of Indiana, the part that depends upon the production of RV's, felt the triple-whammy of an economic meltdown, tight credit, and exorbitant gas prices. After those went away, Indiana could return to its norm of being about 12% more R than the US as a whole.

I'm not saying that Michigan will go against Trump by double digits unless he completely melts down. High single-digits for the D? Highly likely based on this poll.     

Concerning Macomb keep in mind that the subsample is very small, if Trump is really losing this county by 10 he is likely to lose MI by a much larger margin than 5 points

[Frenchrepublican]

Michigan polling sucks


I think trump loses it by 2 points or so, but it will be close

If the election was held now I could see Biden winning MI 51/47, not much more

[Frenchrepublican]

If anything Michigan probably ends up being to Trump what Indiana was to Obama.

That comparison doesn't make a lot of sense, Indiana 2008 was a clear aberration as the state leaned a lot the right before 2008 and swung back hard to the right in 2012. MI on the other hand was and is still a relatively competitive state, in 2004 Bush came very close to win it and in 2012 MI was only D+5, the idea that MI will trend a lot to the left is not backed by any solid datas.