Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[Cassius]

It’s on.

[Cassius]

We couldn't be about to see yet another "centrist boyfriend" come to grief, shurely?

"Woke Thatcherism not electoral magic bullet" shock. News at eleven.

Why did the Fine Gael TD’s overwhelmingly back Varadkar for leader, given that he’s a right-wing Dubliner and the affluent areas of Dublin were the only place where the party didn’t get mauled in 2016? I suppose that Coveney (being a merchant prince and all that) was hardly a man of the people himself, but I feel it would have made more sense to try and pick a candidate who could rebuild support outside of the capital?

[Cassius]

Would I be right to assume that the Shinners are likely to underperform by a few points in comparison to the polls? If my memory serves me correctly that happened in the last three elections.

[Cassius]

Time for a wild shot in the dark prediction re vote shares and seat count.

FF: 45-60: 26%
SF: 25-35: 20%
FG: 25-35: 20%
Independent/Other: 10-15: 16%
Green: 5-10: 7%
Labour: 0-5: 5%
PBP et al: 0-5: 3%
Social Democrats: 0-5: 2%

[Cassius]

Richard E. Grant likely to be eliminated in Dublin Rathdown.

[Cassius]

Micheál Martin is set to be Taoiseach in a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

Although with the caveat that this deal needs to get past the memberships of the three parties (and the Greens, I believe, require a two thirds majority, so their membership could easily scupper it).

Anyway, assuming this does go through and the coalition lasts the distance, I assume whoever is UK PM in five years time will be saying hello Mary Lou when he calls to conduct socially distanced negotiations over the future of the Irish border.

[Cassius]

Having committed electoral suicide once being a junior coalition partner, the Irish Greens are happy to do it *again*? Impressive commitment to the greater good, if nothing else

I think they’ve managed to wring some pretty decent concessions from the big two (higher carbon tax, banning fracking and offshore gas exploration, more funding for public transport et al)  so I imagine that they’ll be hoping to get the credit for that whilst leaving FF and FG to be crucified by the electorate for everything else. Of course you could argue that their last stint in government stands as a rebuttal to that strategy, but arguably those were fairly unique circumstances.