Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Sol]

Since everyone's posting their map, here's mine (link).



Denver Closeup


Since taking those screenshots I figured out a precinct trade which unifies Ken Caryl in the 4th district and and neatens the Denver lines a little too; it's a very minor change but you can see it in the link above.

I think this fits communities of interest pretty well--the 8th is mostly in the High Plains and only takes in Weld/Cañon City for population, the 2nd stays in the college town Front Range, the 3rd stays in the west, and 4th neatly encapsulates the hoity toity Southern suburbs of Denver. The 6th isn't as Latino as maximally possible but is still plurality Latino by total population and is probably as Hispanic as you can get without either splitting Aurora or Weld County, and thereby screwing the rest of the map up.

[Sol]

snip

This is a very nice map!

I guess my only nitpick would be that I don't necessarily think following county lines makes a lot of sense in the Denver area--the counties are large and have a bunch of independent city carveouts and enclaves, city boundaries ignore county lines, etc. Plus Arapaho in particular is an odd hash of communities, with far flung plains communities, working class and diverse Aurora, and Denver's Southern inner suburbs, which are whiter and more affluent. Adams has its plains areas too, and northern Aurora, and even Denver's weird airport annexation area could make more sense in a district with the Northern suburbs.

I guess what I'm saying is that an approach which focuses mostly on communities of interest fits Denver better than a county-based approach.

[Sol]

I think this is a pretty fair map. just saw the maps above and noticed it's pretty similar to sol's, the difference being basically whether to split denver or aurora
CO-01: Clinton +55 | Obama +50 | Obama +52
CO-02: Clinton +25 | Obama +23 | Obama +28
CO-03: Trump +12 | Romney +8 | McCain +2
CO-04: Trump +28 | Romney +16 | McCain +13
CO-05: Trump +23 | Romney +22 | McCain +19
CO-06: Clinton +21 | Obama +29 | Obama +27 (VAP minority coalition seat)
CO-07: Clinton +7 | Obama +5 | Obama +9
CO-08: Trump +4 | Romney +12 | McCain +4

The median seat shifted from Romney +2 in 2012 to Clinton +2 in 2016, so I’d imagine it tracks very closely to the statewide vote in the 2020s

Haha I've definitely done that before-dank map!

IMO I like your Denver metro configuration better--the only nitpick I'd offer would be I don't love Douglas and Jefferson in the Colorado Springs district--I might play around with that a bit..

[Sol]

Haha I've definitely done that before-dank map!

IMO I like your Denver metro configuration better--the only nitpick I'd offer would be I don't love Douglas and Jefferson in the Colorado Springs district--I might play around with that a bit..

thanks!! that one jeffco precinct is just for compactness (less than 1000 ppl) so one could easily put it back in the 7th district if preferred. the south douglas part is basically entirely rural--only 20,000 people, so barely 5% of the county, and i think it blends into the northern suburbs of colorado springs (black forest, woodmoor), they're demographically similar.

my map actually uses estimated extrapolated 2020 populations, so with the general configuration that both our maps share, the expansion of CDs 3 and 4 would either force CD5 to expand into rural south douglas, or CD2 to expand into and split broomfield. i decided the former was better, since the douglas cut cleanly ends at where the dense settlements begin (castle rock and northward)

Hmm, I see. I guess my personal preference might be a chop of Broomfield tbh, if only because it seems like Boulder is more closely tied to metro Denver than Colorado Springs.

[Sol]

I would maybe do some precinct trading between your 3rd/4th/7th--If you put all of Teller County in the CO Springs district and do a (relatively small and rural) cut of El Paso, it looks a bit nicer. Otherwise a pretty good map though!

[Sol]

Is CO getting a commission next year? Sorry, haven't been following political developments there closely.

[Sol]

Plus it seems like Columbine and Ken Caryl are much like Douglas county--sections of the southern favored quarter of Denver along with SW Arapahoe County.

I also want to second Torie--it's very helpful if the information on county and city is accessible, whether on the image you post or a linked DRA file.

[Sol]

2. Gilpin and Clear Creek go with Jefferson--not the Western Slope.

Curious why you argue for this.

[Sol]

Seems to have a lot of unnecessary splits--how about something like this?

[Sol]

Idk, I think that map addresses your criticism? The 6th district links Jefferson and Douglas with a sensible slice of southern Arapahoe.

Doing otherwise forces a split of Aurora, as seen on your map.

[Sol]

Seems to have a lot of unnecessary splits--how about something like this?

Does not your map entail multiple additional county chops? But I understand your metrics. It's tough however to slice and dice Denver, for more abstract countervailing considerations, that I don't find that compelling, when in the final census numbers it will probably be almost precisely one CD. Ditto El Paso.

I was thinking municipal splits, as much as is possible with city boundaries, etc.

[Sol]

Idk, I think that map addresses your criticism? The 6th district links Jefferson and Douglas with a sensible slice of southern Arapahoe.

Doing otherwise forces a split of Aurora, as seen on your map.

I know. I just think splitting Aurora is better than splitting Jefferson.

Why?

[Sol]

Yeah I think putting Boulder with points to the west doesn't make much sense.

[Sol]

Out of curiosity, where do you cut Denver?

A very nice map! Though IMO the obvious place for the Plains CD to nip into the Denver area is in Eastern Adams and Arapahoe.

[Sol]

Unless I am lacking adequate perspicacity and imagination, your idea of losing Weld to round out the population of the plains CD will cause a nasty chop into the close in Denver suburbs, and then force one of those CD's to snake into Greeley, but again good luck in fulfilling your aspirations somehow. I suppose another idea is to put Ft. Collins with the west Colorado CD and see how that looks, but I am not very fond of that idea, when crossing the divide in such a major way is not otherwise necessary. Greeley is the major best facsimile of a "cow town" in the state, and the most divorced from the Denver metro area it seems to me.

Oh this is my bad--I was a little overly vague. I saw you chopped Broomfield and suggested chopping Arapahoe or Adams instead.

[Sol]

IMO Pueblo is actually a pretty good fit with the Eastern rurals of Colorado--as folks have said it's a city of the High Plains.

[Sol]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

This map literally does what people were begging the commission not to do and puts a bunch of mountain counties in with the Front Range.

[Sol]

The four items in the congressional map that seem to be sacrosanct are keeping Denver whole, keeping Aurora whole (for the most part), a district entirely in El Paso, and a Hispanic opportunity district in Adams and Weld counties.

Also keeping Aurora with Centennial seems pretty sacrosanct. The most natural combination is Aurora with the eastern plains, but they seem to be doing all they can to avoid that and do less natural pairings such as putting the eastern slope with Fort Collins- presumably in an effort to keep that district safe R.

I mean, Aurora is clearly a city of metro Denver--it's not a good fit with rural Eastern Colorado.

[Sol]

Splitting El Paso from the west rather than the east looks ugly af but tbh I kind of get it--Manitou Springs is a ski and tourist town like a lot of CO-03. Still not sure if that's better than an eastern split btu I see the rationale.

I'm still kind of sympathetic to a Teller+El Paso district with a slightly deeper cut of El Paso.

[Sol]

It's pretty bizarre that the commission seems to be carefully ignoring the massive amount of public comment discouraging a link of eastern CO with the Front Range in this quixotic quest to put Hispano areas of South Colorado in with Grand Junction. Literally why is this worth destroying the map over when you could just put all of these areas in the 4th?

[Sol]

It's also easy to keep Denver whole and draw a minority-influence seat by just combining Aurora and Adams--no Weld necessary.