Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Stuart98]

Tried making a CO map.



Denver metro inset:



No incumbents get doublestacked, though most shift around a bit. The new 3rd is an open seat. It's significantly more democratic than the old one (Clinton +2 in 2016, D+0 PVI) but good chance Scott Tipton wins it in 2022 though unlikely he keeps it for the whole decade. Likely 5-3 map, though 4-4 (or 5-3 R if some trends in Denver suburbs reverse and the 8th becomes competitive) and 6-2 are possible.

[Stuart98]

 Tried going with Forumlurker's suggestion of putting western Boulder in the same district as Grand Junction, not super happy with the result though. That by necessity puts Boulder in a different district than Fort Collins, which means the Fort Collins district has to either have a long snake jutting into the Denver metro or take parts of Weld to compensate. The latter route means the 4th has to take in Pueblo plus parts of the Western Slope, or a bunch of Denver metro. It's just really awkward.





Joe Neguse and Ken Buck get double stacked inside the 2nd, 4th and 8th are open. 2nd, 3rd, and 8th are competitive; Clinton won the 2nd 49-42 and the 3rd 49-43, while the 8th was a 47-44 Trump district in 2016. Gonna guess Biden easily won all three of them. This could be a likely 6-2 map, though the 8th is composed of counties that had some of the least pro-Democratic trends in 2020.

[Stuart98]

Fair map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e35df00b-e53c-412a-80a1-e22a09851347

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

[Stuart98]

https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/155780/redistricting-chair-is-an-election-fraud-truther

The chair probably doesn't matter as much here though compared to AZ or NJ.

Iirc the indys are fairly left leaning

That didn't last long.

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/04/05/danny-moore-congressional-redistricting-commission/

[Stuart98]

Here's my attempt at maximizing competitive districts.
3 safe D, 1 safe R, and 4 swing that could really go either way depending on the year.

I made the new 8th district in the northern Fort Collins/Greeley area; expanded the 4th into Centennial; transferred eastern Colorado to the 6th; and northwestern Colorado to the 2nd.

This is 5R-3D by 2012-18 average (which is what's pictured in the map), but it's 6D-2R by 2018 gubernatorial (and the 4th district was just three points off flipping in the 2018 gubernatorial). Incumbents who've changed districts: Boebert is now in the 2nd, Buck is now in the 8th, Crow is now in the 4th, and I believe everyone else stays in the same place.

Map link? that smells of dummymander in 2020 president.

[Stuart98]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

I think I like it better than my previous CO map from a COI standpoint. Partisanship wise, it split 4-4 in President 2020 (and in every election on DRA) but has some silly dummymander potential down the line: the 2nd (Fort Collins/Greeley) was Trump +1.7; the 4th (Douglas plus other conservative Denver suburbs and rurals) was Trump +7.1; the 3rd (Pueblo/Grand Junction) was Trump +12.8; the 5th (Colorado Springs) was Trump +10.9. They should all be safe in 2022, but all of them could conceivably fall in 2026 under a blue wave if the trend line in CO continues.

Obviously Boebert gets absolutely screwed here, unless she carpetbags one county south.

[Stuart98]

The new 7th is gross, probably going to get the most criticism. Don't think people in Pueblo are going to be happy about this map. I saw some people asking for a Weld-Adams Hispanic opportunity district so the 8th is gonna make them happy. On the other hand, people asking for Douglas to be separated from the rurals or for there not to be one district for all of east Colorado aren't gonna be happy.

It's just generally weird how ugly the lines here are.

[Stuart98]

Took another stab at Colorado:


Pretty unorthodox since it splits El Paso, but I think it makes sense?

* 3 districts that are at least 30% hispanic by total population, 2 districts that are at least 25% hispanic by CVAP.
* A majmin district by cvap in metro Denver
* 4-4 in 2020 (and probably every other election in the past decade), like my previous map, though with a bit more dummymander risk.

President 2020 numbers:

[Stuart98]

I would not say that the commission was closely following the comments they got for the record; I think the single most common comment I saw was "don't put Lakewood with Douglas"

You'll never guess what they did!

[Stuart98]

It's... not even clear that the new configuration hurts Boebert? Moving Pueblo back into the 3rd would force a bunch of drastic changes to the map that could make the map a lot worse for the GOP than it is right now. Playing with fire there.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/Stuart98_/status/1407899343898615810

[Stuart98]

Okay, here's my "the commission's map but without the weird fixation on following CO's horrible city boundaries to the expense of everything else" map:

Pres 2020 numbers:


CO06 is the Trump-Biden district here, Trump+0.9 to Biden +9.3. The R districts are roughly the same as in the commission map. CO-08 becomes majority minority (50.3%) by total population (61% white cvap) and 41.7% hispanic (31.2% cvap), and also becomes safe D. CO-01 is majmin (54.7%) by total population(57.1% white cvap). It is 28.4% hispanic by total population (18.2% CVAP) and 19.4% black (18.1% CVAP).

[Stuart98]

I don't understand why all the forum dems are upset about Boebert retaining a safe district...  You do realize that having people like Boebert, MTG, and Gaetz be the face of the Republican Party is a GOOD thing for Dems right?  They are crazy and awful but they repel voters in swing districts from the GOP.  And why does it matter if some less crazy Republican replaced her?  they'd vote the exact same way once they get into office.

Boebert is not as good for the party as a 6th D seat would be.

[Stuart98]

I created a 4-4 CO map based on the 2020 Prez results. This would most likely be one of the better maps for the GOP.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cde11d00-b9a5-4dc5-8cc6-ba895026d653

this mander is dumb

[Stuart98]

Experimental plan I came up with in response to the commission's new plan:



6th is made into a maj-min with substantial Hispanic and black populations, 4th is a Hispanic opportunity district that's majority minority by total population, 8th is one quarter hispanic and has weaker trends than most of the state.

[Stuart98]

Does she actually live in Rifle, or does she live in Silt (a town just east of Rifle)? Different Wikipedia pages disagree on this.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/EvanWyloge/status/1438277674779103238
CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

[Stuart98]

Not getting all hate Democrats are giving this map on Twitter. It's a 4D-3R-1 lean D map and that seems about right to me. As long as Denver is kept as whole as possible (as it should under a commission map IMO) the median district is going to be to the right of the state as a whole. If Democrats can't win a Biden +4.6 district in a state that is likely to keep moving left then they have big problems.

Dems are mad because without the commission we'd get a 7-1 map and even this proportionally partisan map makes a lot of weird choices that deviate from COI.

[Stuart98]

Not getting all hate Democrats are giving this map on Twitter. It's a 4D-3R-1 lean D map and that seems about right to me. As long as Denver is kept as whole as possible (as it should under a commission map IMO) the median district is going to be to the right of the state as a whole. If Democrats can't win a Biden +4.6 district in a state that is likely to keep moving left then they have big problems.

Dems are mad because without the commission we'd get a 7-1 map and even this proportionally partisan map makes a lot of weird choices that deviate from COI.

How do you not end up with at least 2 R districts - one in Colorado Springs and one in the rurals?

Colorado Rurals are empty, the R pack is mostly the R bits of Weld and El Paso.



Two majority minority districts, one of which is going to be majority hispanic by the end of the decade. The Springs/Pueblo district was Trump +3 in 2016 but it was Hick +5 in 2018, Hick +3 last year and Biden +6 while quickly trending left so it'd be reliable enough for Dem's purposes.

[Stuart98]

Round 5 Tally:

Staff Plan 3 Coleman Amendment - 4 votes

Tafoya Workshop Adjusted Amendment - 4 votes

P.008.Shepherd Macklin ("Schuster Amended") - 4 votes

This is the partisanship of P.008 (It's 5-3 DEM here but was 5-3 GOP in 2016):

wtf?

it'll be hilarious if this bizarre gerrymander is what the commission ends up passing. Who voted for it?

[Stuart98]

Round 5 Tally:

Staff Plan 3 Coleman Amendment - 4 votes

Tafoya Workshop Adjusted Amendment - 4 votes

P.008.Shepherd Macklin ("Schuster Amended") - 4 votes

This is the partisanship of P.008 (It's 5-3 DEM here but was 5-3 GOP in 2016):

...

wtf?

it'll be hilarious if this bizarre gerrymander is what the commission ends up passing. Who voted for it?

It looks like Espinoza, Leone, Shepherd Macklin, and Wilkes voted for P.008

What a bizarre coalition.

[Stuart98]

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/04/kerry-donovan-lauren-boebert-redistricting-2022-election/.

Waiting for the state supreme court.

Also:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1445124843960143891

Why are both of their maps gerrymandering southern Colorado but still not splitting Denver?

Why is literally everyone notable allergic to splitting Denver when its boundaries are weird and you can get two MajMins out of it if you do so?

[Stuart98]

Ugh, would have preferred a less weird map, w/e I guess.