Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[S019]

It's essentially impossible to create a proper minority-influence district outside of metro Denver, which makes me wonder if there are ulterior partisan motives at play here. Either it would be a safe R district where all the Democrats are Hispanics but their candidates can't win, or it would be a swing district with a much smaller Hispanic minority where the Democratic primaries are controlled by ski country McGovernites. It makes much more sense to draw a Hispanic district in Denver and Adams County than to try this proposal.

It's possible to make a southern Hispanic-opportunity Dem-leaning district that's over 30% Hispanic. Here's my map of that; in this case, Hispanic voters would likely dominate the Dem primaries, there aren't as many ski towns. (My map also has a 40% Hispanic district north of Denver; it's very much possible to have both)



Data is 2020 presidential

The only issue with this is that's an obvious Dem gerrymander that the Republicans on the commission would never let through. Even a legislative map probably wouldn't go for 7-1. I mean I'd be happy if the commission passed this, but I wouldn't expect it to happen, I'm even mildly surprised that they're trying to (probably) give Dems a Southern-based seat.

[S019]

I'm reading this is actually a staff map that was presented to the commission, not a commission drawn map.

Yeah that's what happened last time. Still interesting to note in how it was heavily influenced by an obvious Democratic gerrymander proposal yet somehow managed to be not a major Democratic gerrymander. Its quite weird what the staff is doing.

This map is probably better for Republicans in the short run though, the median seat is now Biden+5 rather than Biden+9, there is potential long term benefit from the Democrats, but other than the Col. Springs seat, idk if any of the other GOP seats (i.e. the two slope ones) will trend D long term in a significant way.

[S019]

Second Draft:

[S019]

Round 5 Tally:

Staff Plan 3 Coleman Amendment - 4 votes

Tafoya Workshop Adjusted Amendment - 4 votes

P.008.Shepherd Macklin ("Schuster Amended") - 4 votes

This is the partisanship of P.008 (It's 5-3 DEM here but was 5-3 GOP in 2016):

wtf?

it'll be hilarious if this bizarre gerrymander is what the commission ends up passing. Who voted for it?

it's hilarious also that this is a Republican proposed map, while all of the Republicans on the commission have been trying to push through a plan made by a Democratic commissioner.

[S019]

Round 6 Underway

[S019]

Looking further into it, one Democrat (Coleman) and one left leaning indy (Brawner) supported advancing the Coleman plan over Schuster, interestingly Coleman was one of the D commissioners recommended by Democratic legislative leadership.

[S019]

So lmao. Between CO and MI, independent commissions are doing a better job at drawing Republican gerrymanders than Republican legislators are.

MI I believe has partisan proportionality requirements built into the commission, so they'll need to end at 7-6 eventually most likely.