Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 06:37:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion  (Read 26904 times)
Boobs
HCP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,523
« on: January 13, 2020, 12:04:29 AM »
« edited: January 13, 2020, 12:32:54 AM by Inevitable Barbara Bollier »

I figured I might as well start this thread.

As we all know, Colorado is poised (and almost guaranteed) to gain a district in the next round of apportionment, bring it up to 8 districts. It's a Democratic trifecta that is likely to hold in 2020 (or even expand; 3 Republican senators in Clinton districts are up).

I drew this map.





Generally, I think this an elegant map in the sense that it mostly preserves the 2012-2020 districts' compositions, both in terms of voter base and partisanship.

I drew the map using the 2020 estimates in DRA and then redrew it in 2010 to get the following numbers:

CO-01 - Clinton 73.6-18.9
CO-02 - Clinton 57.8-33.4
CO-03 - Trump 51.6-40.3
CO-04 - Trump 59.8-32.2
CO-05 - Trump 56.3-33.8
CO-06 - Clinton 49.4-42.1
CO-07 - Clinton 51.4-39.4
CO-08 - Trump 46.3-44.8 (new)

Mostly, Districts 1-7 remain within 2% of their previous iteration, with CO-01 becoming about 4% more Democratic, but it's safe anyway.

The new district is southern JeffCo, most of Douglas, and the westernmost parts of Arapahoe. It was carried by Trump but I'd bet it would be won by the Democratic nominee in 2020, and is generally trending toward the Democrats, leading the map to settle towards 5-3 Dem in the long run, reflecting the likely desire of a Dem-controlled redistricting process.

Edit: Link here.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 12 queries.