Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 04:48:05 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion  (Read 26887 times)
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,476
United States


« on: January 13, 2020, 08:12:52 PM »

Can you provide a color key for your results? I wish I had the DRA color order memorized, but I don’t.

This is a very minor point, but Routt County (Steamboat Springs) is more Democratic than nearby counties and would pair well with the Boulder district rather than the primarily agricultural counties to its west. Rabbit Ears Pass connects it with the Front Range is warm weather.

I think Steamboat Springs is more naturally kept in the district that includes all of the other ski towns as well (which is potentially winnable for the Democrats as I think the strong Hispano numbers for Trump understate Democrats' strength in the area).

This map is pretty reasonable overall. I've had some fun drawing gerrymanders of Colorado, but obviously one isn't going to happen. The only question is whether with 8 districts it might be possible to create a Latino district in the Denver area, which a commission might consider.

Steamboat is in CO-03 - the town is located to the west of the name on that map, in Routt County (the one shaped like Mississippi).

IDK about the size but you could make a horseshoe-shaped district with the southeast leg West of the Platte and into Jefferson County, snaking up and around downtown and coming down to Aurora which would pack a lot of Latinos in. The question is what to do with the rest of Denver - very white and urbane (mostly wealthy too) but lumping it in with southern suburbs puts them in conflict with the most conservative voters in the area.

Is the new CO-08 predominantly Anglo white? If so, then I would guess that since it voted for Trump, and is an area of new and rapidly growing population, that it would more likely elect a Republican in the coming decade, resulting in a delegation that is evenly split. It has been my experience that an area made up of new suburbs, rapidly growing, tends to be more Republican, unless the area is dominated by minorities.

Yes - Douglas county is the most conservative of the Denver suburbs, and it's 97% white in the 2010 census. Worth noting that the southern half of Jefferson (included in the 8th in this map) is rural and also reliably Republican.

There's a crazy amount of growth there though as people get priced out of downtown or inner suburbs - you can find people living as far south as Colorado Springs and commuting into the Denver (!). I think Castle Rock could easily turn into a Denver bedroom suburb but right now the area is pretty R-friendly.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,476
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2021, 11:35:26 PM »


No more parallel Weld senate seats, I think this new version with Loveland and Longmont seats works better, especially in regards to Broomfield.


Yeah the bacon strips were always bizarre (and the new Loveland and Longmont seats are much better), but they live on in spirit in HD 63 which appears to stretch from outer Longmont all the way up to Cheyenne.

That Western Weld (purple/fuschia) SD 2 is also one to watch.  That whole strip west of Greeley had some of the biggest shifts in the county in 2020, and a lot of the R growth in the county looks to be in the southwestern parts lumped in with the plains. It won't be competitive in 2022 but could be winnable in a good year by the end of the decade.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,476
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2021, 10:59:41 PM »

I think Ken Buck actually lives in the new 8th but I would guess he runs in the 4th.

Either way from a non-partisan perspective it's absolutely abominable that Greeley ends up somehow in a Denver metro district while Fort Collins gets lumped in to a district with the plains. For that matter lumping in Loveland with Boulder and the NW quarter of the state is also pretty bad.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,476
United States


« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2021, 07:58:50 PM »

I think Ken Buck actually lives in the new 8th but I would guess he runs in the 4th.

Either way from a non-partisan perspective it's absolutely abominable that Greeley ends up somehow in a Denver metro district while Fort Collins gets lumped in to a district with the plains. For that matter lumping in Loveland with Boulder and the NW quarter of the state is also pretty bad.

What's wrong with Loveland and Boulder? Most normal maps have a Larimer +Boulder district which would include Loveland?

The more offensive part is splitting Fort Collins and Loveland. Loveland is basically a less wealthy sister city to the neighboring destination/college town (think: Springfield Oregon). I get that there's a continuity issue that means that if you split Loveland and FoCo, Loveland has to go in with Boulder (although given that we've seen maps that give portions of western Boulder County to the third apparently this isn't a major priority) but culturally it's an awful fit, just as Fort Collins is for a district that includes the Northeast corner of the state (and Douglas County, somehow).

Oh well, I don't particularly care because this won't be the final map and if it was it would benefit my party. But it's pretty blatant to anyone who knows the Northern Front Range.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.032 seconds with 13 queries.