Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Tintrlvr]

Can you provide a color key for your results? I wish I had the DRA color order memorized, but I don’t.

This is a very minor point, but Routt County (Steamboat Springs) is more Democratic than nearby counties and would pair well with the Boulder district rather than the primarily agricultural counties to its west. Rabbit Ears Pass connects it with the Front Range is warm weather.

I think Steamboat Springs is more naturally kept in the district that includes all of the other ski towns as well (which is potentially winnable for the Democrats as I think the strong Hispano numbers for Trump understate Democrats' strength in the area).

This map is pretty reasonable overall. I've had some fun drawing gerrymanders of Colorado, but obviously one isn't going to happen. The only question is whether with 8 districts it might be possible to create a Latino district in the Denver area, which a commission might consider.

[Tintrlvr]

It's essentially impossible to create a proper minority-influence district outside of metro Denver, which makes me wonder if there are ulterior partisan motives at play here. Either it would be a safe R district where all the Democrats are Hispanics but their candidates can't win, or it would be a swing district with a much smaller Hispanic minority where the Democratic primaries are controlled by ski country McGovernites. It makes much more sense to draw a Hispanic district in Denver and Adams County than to try this proposal.

It's possible to make a southern Hispanic-opportunity Dem-leaning district that's over 30% Hispanic. Here's my map of that; in this case, Hispanic voters would likely dominate the Dem primaries, there aren't as many ski towns. (My map also has a 40% Hispanic district north of Denver; it's very much possible to have both)



Data is 2020 presidential

The only issue with this is that's an obvious Dem gerrymander that the Republicans on the commission would never let through. Even a legislative map probably wouldn't go for 7-1. I mean I'd be happy if the commission passed this, but I wouldn't expect it to happen, I'm even mildly surprised that they're trying to (probably) give Dems a Southern-based seat.

Not sure this is really a Democratic gerrymander, or at least really an effective one; the Republicans could easily win 4/8 of the seats, even if 7/8 voted for Biden. At the least, it would be a very risky move for the Democrats (and that district 5 isn't a very efficient pack, either).

[Tintrlvr]

Now, here's a Democratic gerrymander. 7-1, all of the Democratic districts except the Hispano one in the south are more than Biden+10. The southern seat is Biden+4 but also does have Democratic history in some areas (though also some new areas for the Democrats, like a lot of the Colorado Springs parts of the district). I think this is quite clean for such an aggressive gerrymander, too, and doesn't even crack Denver.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffaf6af8-a955-4b01-867a-7c5e0c5388ca

[Tintrlvr]

Now, here's a Democratic gerrymander. 7-1, all of the Democratic districts except the Hispano one in the south are more than Biden+10. The southern seat is Biden+4 but also does have Democratic history in some areas (though also some new areas for the Democrats, like a lot of the Colorado Springs parts of the district). I think this is quite clean for such an aggressive gerrymander, too, and doesn't even crack Denver.

Yeah, Biden winning in 2020 for sure isn't a sign of a safe district. For instance, it's possible to modify my last map a bit to make all eight districts Biden 2020 ones (and incidentally increasing the 8th to 43% Hispanic too)- however, four of the eight voted Trump in 2016, and three of the others were all won by Clinton by less than 9 points...

So, this map looks a gerrymander- and would be if Dem success in CO keeps improving- but on the other hand could easily function as a "maximum competitive districts" map.

Right, that's why I targeted Biden+10 as the goal (and actually only the Fort Collins district is Biden+10; the other Likely D seats are higher at Biden+17 (Adams), Biden+16 (Jefferson) and Biden+12 (Boulder)). Other than the southern Colorado district, all of the Democratic districts on my map also voted for Clinton in 2016 and voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016 (and actually the southern Colorado district has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016 other than President 2016) so should all be pretty safe. The competitive district in southern Colorado just is what it is - best you can do without something really aggressive.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/EvanWyloge/status/1438277674779103238
CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?

[Tintrlvr]

Found LULAC's map by the way.

The El Paso/Pueblo district seems to be Biden +10, while the Larimer to Fort collins is Trump +1ish?

The Fort Collins to Durango district should be pretty solidly Trump I would have thought, without most of the ski towns.