Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Virginiá]

6-2 was easily possible for the Colorado Democrats. The problem with Democrats is they have a trifecta in just some states, and in a lot of those states, they give it to independent commissions. I'm not saying it's a bad idea but the Democats should play harball instead of always taking the high road when the GOP does gerrymanders wherever possible. And in all honesty, even a 6-2 map wouldn't really be that much of a gerrymander. In any case they can do much better than 5-3, and I'm dissapointed they didn't go any farther. In particular, CO03 can probably be turned into a Biden district if its borders are played around with a bit. They can definitely do it if they've got a district that went to Biden by north of 60 points.

I don't think the legislature itself would have given up control of redistricting if there weren't already group(s) collecting signatures for amendments in 2018 that looked likely to be approved/enacted. the Democratic-led legislature figured if redistricting reform was going to end up on the ballot either way, it might as well be amendments that had been crafted with their input.

The problem for Democrats is that they control more critical states for redistricting with an initiative process than there are for Republicans. And even for the Republican-leaning states that do have such a process, those states aren't particularly worthwhile for reform - at least in terms of how many US House seats Democrats could shift back towards them by eliminating gerrymandering. And all of this is also complicated by the fact that Democrats are simultaneously trying to end the practice of gerrymandering nationally while also not trying to screw themselves by just giving up seats to the GOP while Republicans eagerly gerrymander their own states to win more seats.

[Virginiá]

IIRC, there is already an initiative planned for Oregon that would essentially force map redraws in 2024 if it passes in 2022. They were trying to go for 2020, but COVID and court rulings not extending deadlines for initiatives ended that.

[Virginiá]

I recall OK and AR Dems were trying something similar at the beginning of 2020 but it failed due to COVID.  Maybe they will bring it back?

The problem in conservative Republican-led states is that generally when anyone tries to use the initiative process to stop Republican power grabs (or pass too many policies conservatives dislike), Republicans then immediately retaliate by trying to dismantle the initiative system or at least making it so cumbersome that it's no longer a viable route for passing policy that doesn't have extremely broad support. For example, Arkansas after the redistricting initiative failed to make the ballot due to COVID:

https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/05/03/arkansas-passes-bill-with-multiple-restrictions-on-the-ballot-initiative-process/

• ban paying signature gatherers based on the number of signatures gathered, a payment method called pay-per-signature;

• require circulators to be state residents and citizens;

• add certain offenses that disqualify a person from being a signature gatherer, including assault, battery, intimidation, threatening, sexual offenses, trespassing, vandalism, and theft (in addition to the existing list of any felony, election law violations, fraud, forgery, and identity theft);

• require initiative sponsors to certify that signature gatherers do not have any disqualifying conviction and put the burden of proof on initiative sponsors with regard to lawsuits and administrative proceedings;

• make it a felony for petition sponsors or their representatives to knowingly pay a circulator for or submit petitions for which the circulator did not personally witness all signatures; and

• make it a felony for a circulator to not report another circulator that provides a false affidavit that they personally witnessed all signatures.

Similar to Republican states that have tried to make voter registration drives a crime, they make gathering signatures on a mass scale so risky that people stop trying.

Oklahoma passed a few new restrictions but they wouldn't really hinder a redistricting measure like Arkansas would.

[Virginiá]

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/04/kerry-donovan-lauren-boebert-redistricting-2022-election/.

Waiting for the state supreme court.

Also:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1445124843960143891