Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Sol]

Plus it seems like Columbine and Ken Caryl are much like Douglas county--sections of the southern favored quarter of Denver along with SW Arapahoe County.

I also want to second Torie--it's very helpful if the information on county and city is accessible, whether on the image you post or a linked DRA file.

[Sol]

2. Gilpin and Clear Creek go with Jefferson--not the Western Slope.

Curious why you argue for this.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

2. Gilpin and Clear Creek go with Jefferson--not the Western Slope.

Curious why you argue for this.

Parts of them are exurban Denver/Boulder and they're east of the Continental Divide--which is such a natural boundary.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

[snip]

[Sol]

Seems to have a lot of unnecessary splits--how about something like this?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems to have a lot of unnecessary splits--how about something like this?

That's a reasonable alternative but I'm always going to prioritize compactness, clean lines, COIs, and actual physical geography over generally arbitrary county lines. And the single most obvious physical divide in Demver suburbia is the Douglas/Jefferson line radiating out from Southwest Denver. Plus I think it's hard to argue that some of Denver's weirder protrusions actually have any real significance.

[Sol]

Idk, I think that map addresses your criticism? The 6th district links Jefferson and Douglas with a sensible slice of southern Arapahoe.

Doing otherwise forces a split of Aurora, as seen on your map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Idk, I think that map addresses your criticism? The 6th district links Jefferson and Douglas with a sensible slice of southern Arapahoe.

Doing otherwise forces a split of Aurora, as seen on your map.

I know. I just think splitting Aurora is better than splitting Jefferson.

[Nyvin]

Best way to handle Denver metro IMO is making the hispanic opportunity seat, pairing the rest of Denver with western Arapahoe, and Aurora with Douglas.   



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d714a51f-5edf-441b-8c54-a4ae62a87bee

[It’s so Joever]

Best way to handle Denver metro IMO is making the hispanic opportunity seat, pairing the rest of Denver with western Arapahoe, and Aurora with Douglas.   



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d714a51f-5edf-441b-8c54-a4ae62a87bee

Yes but put Gilpin and Clear Creek with JeffCo.

[Torie]

Seems to have a lot of unnecessary splits--how about something like this?

Does not your map entail multiple additional county chops? But I understand your metrics. It's tough however to slice and dice Denver, for more abstract countervailing considerations, that I don't find that compelling, when in the final census numbers it will probably be almost precisely one CD. Ditto El Paso.

[Stuart98]

 Tried going with Forumlurker's suggestion of putting western Boulder in the same district as Grand Junction, not super happy with the result though. That by necessity puts Boulder in a different district than Fort Collins, which means the Fort Collins district has to either have a long snake jutting into the Denver metro or take parts of Weld to compensate. The latter route means the 4th has to take in Pueblo plus parts of the Western Slope, or a bunch of Denver metro. It's just really awkward.





Joe Neguse and Ken Buck get double stacked inside the 2nd, 4th and 8th are open. 2nd, 3rd, and 8th are competitive; Clinton won the 2nd 49-42 and the 3rd 49-43, while the 8th was a 47-44 Trump district in 2016. Gonna guess Biden easily won all three of them. This could be a likely 6-2 map, though the 8th is composed of counties that had some of the least pro-Democratic trends in 2020.

[Sol]

Seems to have a lot of unnecessary splits--how about something like this?

Does not your map entail multiple additional county chops? But I understand your metrics. It's tough however to slice and dice Denver, for more abstract countervailing considerations, that I don't find that compelling, when in the final census numbers it will probably be almost precisely one CD. Ditto El Paso.

I was thinking municipal splits, as much as is possible with city boundaries, etc.

[Sol]

Idk, I think that map addresses your criticism? The 6th district links Jefferson and Douglas with a sensible slice of southern Arapahoe.

Doing otherwise forces a split of Aurora, as seen on your map.

I know. I just think splitting Aurora is better than splitting Jefferson.

Why?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tried going with Forumlurker's suggestion of putting western Boulder in the same district as Grand Junction, not super happy with the result though. That by necessity puts Boulder in a different district than Fort Collins, which means the Fort Collins district has to either have a long snake jutting into the Denver metro or take parts of Weld to compensate. The latter route means the 4th has to take in Pueblo plus parts of the Western Slope, or a bunch of Denver metro. It's just really awkward.





Joe Neguse and Ken Buck get double stacked inside the 2nd, 4th and 8th are open. 2nd, 3rd, and 8th are competitive; Clinton won the 2nd 49-42 and the 3rd 49-43, while the 8th was a 47-44 Trump district in 2016. Gonna guess Biden easily won all three of them. This could be a likely 6-2 map, though the 8th is composed of counties that had some of the least pro-Democratic trends in 2020.

Looks good to me

[Sol]

Yeah I think putting Boulder with points to the west doesn't make much sense.

[It’s so Joever]

Tried going with Forumlurker's suggestion of putting western Boulder in the same district as Grand Junction, not super happy with the result though. That by necessity puts Boulder in a different district than Fort Collins, which means the Fort Collins district has to either have a long snake jutting into the Denver metro or take parts of Weld to compensate. The latter route means the 4th has to take in Pueblo plus parts of the Western Slope, or a bunch of Denver metro. It's just really awkward.





Joe Neguse and Ken Buck get double stacked inside the 2nd, 4th and 8th are open. 2nd, 3rd, and 8th are competitive; Clinton won the 2nd 49-42 and the 3rd 49-43, while the 8th was a 47-44 Trump district in 2016. Gonna guess Biden easily won all three of them. This could be a likely 6-2 map, though the 8th is composed of counties that had some of the least pro-Democratic trends in 2020.

This is great! It represents the interests of all Coloradans!

-Not a partisan hack

[Torie]

Below is another version that twists the CD’s counterclockwise by having the plains CD rather than the Boulder-Ft. Collins CD participate in the chop of Broomfield. It entails an extra county chop by the Douglas-southern Jefferson CD chop into Arapahoe to take in Littleton, but some might like it because it improves the connectivity of the latter CD, and improves perhaps the natural geographic and COI divisions of the Denver suburbs.

OK, I think I have beaten my Colorado drum to the point that it has no sound. Carry on, and good luck.

[Sol]

Out of curiosity, where do you cut Denver?

A very nice map! Though IMO the obvious place for the Plains CD to nip into the Denver area is in Eastern Adams and Arapahoe.

[Torie]

The CD I numbered 8 did the chop, to turn the clock clockwise, to cause as much of the suburbs north of the Denver CD to be in CD number 7 as possible, rather than in CD 8. Mega chops of Aurora is a deal killer for me btw. Those maps get an F in my opinion. A nasty chop of Lakewood is a C- to D map.

Unless I am lacking adequate perspicacity and imagination, your idea of losing Weld to round out the population of the plains CD will cause a nasty chop into the close in Denver suburbs, and then force one of those CD's to snake into Greeley, but again good luck in fulfilling your aspirations somehow. I suppose another idea is to put Ft. Collins with the west Colorado CD and see how that looks, but I am not very fond of that idea, when crossing the Continental Divide in such a major way is not otherwise necessary. Other than Pueblo which is aleady in the plains CD, Greeley is the  best facsimile of a major "cow town" in the state, and the most divorced from the Denver metro area it seems to me.

Oh, and thank you for your kind words.

[Sol]

Unless I am lacking adequate perspicacity and imagination, your idea of losing Weld to round out the population of the plains CD will cause a nasty chop into the close in Denver suburbs, and then force one of those CD's to snake into Greeley, but again good luck in fulfilling your aspirations somehow. I suppose another idea is to put Ft. Collins with the west Colorado CD and see how that looks, but I am not very fond of that idea, when crossing the divide in such a major way is not otherwise necessary. Greeley is the major best facsimile of a "cow town" in the state, and the most divorced from the Denver metro area it seems to me.

Oh this is my bad--I was a little overly vague. I saw you chopped Broomfield and suggested chopping Arapahoe or Adams instead.

[Torie]

Unless I am lacking adequate perspicacity and imagination, your idea of losing Weld to round out the population of the plains CD will cause a nasty chop into the close in Denver suburbs, and then force one of those CD's to snake into Greeley, but again good luck in fulfilling your aspirations somehow. I suppose another idea is to put Ft. Collins with the west Colorado CD and see how that looks, but I am not very fond of that idea, when crossing the divide in such a major way is not otherwise necessary. Greeley is the major best facsimile of a "cow town" in the state, and the most divorced from the Denver metro area it seems to me.

Oh this is my bad--I was a little overly vague. I saw you chopped Broomfield and suggested chopping Arapahoe or Adams instead.

If you do that, again you force more of the suburbs north of the Denver CD to be in CD 8 rather than 7, and my prime objective was to minimize that, after avoiding major chops of municipalities. This approach also caused the chop location of Jefferson to be in the most natural and clean spot. So that was my thinking.

Twisting the whole clock around Denver so that CD 7 takes in all of Broomfield causes a nasty chop of Littleton. Otherwise, I would have done what you suggest I think. The plains CD loses 27K in Broomfield, takes in 27K in one of the A counties, CD 8 moves into something that is not there (other than chopping Littleton), and CD 2 moves more north in Jefferson by 27K people (the move north in Jefferson can be done without material negative consequences, unlike the chop of Littleton as CD 8 moves west to replace the 27K that it loses from the plains CD chop into it).

[Torie]

If you lose the Littleton play entirely (that was done to improve connectivity and make Blairite happier), back you go to the map that would seem to have the most merit, taking into account your fine suggestion of where the plains CD should do its chop.

[Roll Roons]

Tried my hand at getting rid of Boebert:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/8f45f1f5-6d41-413c-b637-c70e6c24fb48

CO-01: Urban Denver district. Very safe D, as expected.
CO-02: Now takes in all of Larimer County and a bit of Weld, but still includes most of Boulder. Marginally less Democratic than the current version, but was still Hillary +19.
CO-03: Boebert is a lunatic who needs to be purged, so this district becomes significantly bluer. Takes in most of the major ski resorts (Aspen, Vail, Steamboat Springs), as well as a good chunk of Boulder, including CU's campus. This district went to Trump by about 3 points in 2016, but probably flipped to Biden.
CO-04: Solidly Republican seat that takes in the eastern part of the state
CO-05: Still centered on Colorado Springs. Doesn't change that much, and is still clearly Republican.
CO-06: Basically coextensive with Arapahoe County. Was a swing district pre-Trump, but is now safely Democratic.
CO-07: Pure tossup district. Has all of blue-leaning Adams County, but also a lot of solidly red Weld, including Greeley.
CO-08: Another tossup district that includes all of Jefferson and the majority of traditionally Republican Douglas. Both CO-07 and CO-08 narrowly went for Hillary and likely went to Biden by bigger margins, but could be plausible targets in 2022.

[Former President tack50]

Here is my take on a "Light Dem gerrymander"; basically the kind of redistricting that could happen if the Colorado commission was somehow seized by a coalition of partisan democrats and RINOs, like it has happened in other states?

Basically this is a partisan map that doesn't go too crazy and tries to keep some COIs at least; although I will admit I probably didn't put enough effort into keeping county borders, so this map, while it looks good, looks less great with county borders on.

Interestingly this does give me a chance to show off the "donut" district from another thread.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c04e1eca-ce14-441d-a9ab-304acd12b08f

Districts 1, 2 and 6 should all be safe D (though district 6, at D+4 in PVI might have been competitive in the past, but it certainly isn't now). Similarly, districts 4 and 5 should both be Safe R (though the Colorado Springs district is trending D, but should still be safe R for now)

District 7 may have been competitive in the past as well (D+2 PVI), and even in 2016 it was not a huge blowout (Clinton+7); but I imagine it must have zoomed left very fast. For the 2018 governor election it voted Polis+14 so

District 8 is basically a Lean D district that is still very much competitive. It was Clinton+1, Polis+6 and D+1 in PVI. Not sure what the trend here is, if one even exists.

Finally district 3 is a half hearted attempt at getting rid of Boebert. You can't fully get rid of her without doing a "proper" gerrymander, so this just gives her as many of the Dem rural ski counties as you can, and then fills up the population by taking the rural parts of Boulder and Larimer, instead of the more Republican southeast part of the state. It's still Likely R, but slightly better than the current district. It even voted for Polis by 200 votes (Trump+8, Polis+0, R+5)