Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Sol]

Haha I've definitely done that before-dank map!

IMO I like your Denver metro configuration better--the only nitpick I'd offer would be I don't love Douglas and Jefferson in the Colorado Springs district--I might play around with that a bit..

thanks!! that one jeffco precinct is just for compactness (less than 1000 ppl) so one could easily put it back in the 7th district if preferred. the south douglas part is basically entirely rural--only 20,000 people, so barely 5% of the county, and i think it blends into the northern suburbs of colorado springs (black forest, woodmoor), they're demographically similar.

my map actually uses estimated extrapolated 2020 populations, so with the general configuration that both our maps share, the expansion of CDs 3 and 4 would either force CD5 to expand into rural south douglas, or CD2 to expand into and split broomfield. i decided the former was better, since the douglas cut cleanly ends at where the dense settlements begin (castle rock and northward)

Hmm, I see. I guess my personal preference might be a chop of Broomfield tbh, if only because it seems like Boulder is more closely tied to metro Denver than Colorado Springs.

[lfromnj]

Cooked up what I think is a decent CO map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f71e059f-65da-4c98-bad9-274d526e5ae4

Kept Denver besides a small part in the SW whole.
Aurora is also whole

4 Safe D with yellow being the closest of them and then 1 tossup which is red at Trump +3/Polis +1 so I assume Biden won it by a decent margin.
Also the city of Aurora is whole.
All outstate districts should be safe for the GOP. I can't see anyway to realistically get a swing outstate district besides putting Larimer with outstate and dumping Weld with Boulder which I really don't like.Boulder + Larimer are a pretty decent COI.

Outstate really can only be one CO springs district which will not be touched in any circumstance whatsoever and then the Eastern district has to expand to Take Pueblo either due to the loss of Douglass or Weld which removes any chance for a swing Boebert district.

[Sol]

I would maybe do some precinct trading between your 3rd/4th/7th--If you put all of Teller County in the CO Springs district and do a (relatively small and rural) cut of El Paso, it looks a bit nicer. Otherwise a pretty good map though!

[lfromnj]

Its merely a few thousand people and I estimate with 2020 pop Teller won't even be needed and I guess a precinct or 2 will be taken from El Paso.

Thanks anyway. Although I find county lines generally important to follow in most areas, I found it extremely hard and pointless to follow in the Denver metro and attempting to follow them would merely mess up other options so I just decided to do a rotation of them with 3 districts. Obviously Denver can and should easily be kept whole atleast IMO.

Also If I do a rotation between the 3 outstate districts to do what you say, I would have to split the Hispano area. Although obviously not even close to VRA/minority influence district they are a pretty reasonable COI I tried to keep together.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Obviously Denver can and should easily be kept whole at least IMO.

I actually disagree on that. The area out towards the airport really belongs in the Araphoe/Adams district in exchange for some of Aurora. It makes for a much cleaner map. I also disagree with a Douglas/Jefferson district. Jefferson+Clear Creek+Gilpin is almost a whole district (and those two counties very obviously belong with suburban Denver, not the Western Slope). I think cutting the Hispano area is okay considering the clear geographic separation between the Alamosa Valley and I-25 corridor. This is what I have:



I'm also going to draw a map with a Fort Collins-Greeley district, pairing Boulder with the Denver area instead. Arguably that better reflects urbanization patterns along the Front Range.

[lfromnj]

Obviously Denver can and should easily be kept whole at least IMO.

I actually disagree on that. The area out towards the airport really belongs in the Araphoe/Adams district in exchange for some of Aurora. It makes for a much cleaner map. I also disagree with a Douglas/Jefferson district. Jefferson+Clear Creek+Gilpin is almost a whole district (and those two counties very obviously belong with suburban Denver, not the Western Slope). I think cutting the Hispano area is okay considering the clear geographic separation between the Alamosa Valley and I-25 corridor. This is what I have:



I'm also going to draw a map with a Fort Collins-Greeley district, pairing Boulder with the Denver area instead. Arguably that better reflects urbanization patterns along the Front Range.

I thought of the Fort Collins Greeley district but  that pushes Douglass to the eastern slope when it's clearly a Denver suburb/exurb Meanwhile at least Greeley is its own area. Also arguably Boulder and Fort Collins are both college towns so I kept them together .Although generally the state can be categorized into 3 parts

El Paso/Colorado Springs. Pretty clear and the easiest district to draw with only some minor quibbles about Teller county.

The 2 outstate districts, which should be split East and West generally. And then the Greeley- Fort Collins to Douglass Corridor. The population of around 5.5 districts the main question is which of these counties should be paired with outstate
Douglass/Boulder/Larimer/Weld.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Douglas County belongs with the rurals in eastern Colorado.

[Nyvin]

Douglas County belongs with the rurals in eastern Colorado.

Not the Highlands Ranch and Stonegate/Parker areas in the north, that's literally part of Denver suburbia.

The southern 4/5th's of the county, sure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cooked up what I think is a decent CO map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f71e059f-65da-4c98-bad9-274d526e5ae4

Kept Denver besides a small part in the SW whole.
Aurora is also whole

4 Safe D with yellow being the closest of them and then 1 tossup which is red at Trump +3/Polis +1 so I assume Biden won it by a decent margin.
Also the city of Aurora is whole.
All outstate districts should be safe for the GOP. I can't see anyway to realistically get a swing outstate district besides putting Larimer with outstate and dumping Weld with Boulder which I really don't like.Boulder + Larimer are a pretty decent COI.

Outstate really can only be one CO springs district which will not be touched in any circumstance whatsoever and then the Eastern district has to expand to Take Pueblo either due to the loss of Douglass or Weld which removes any chance for a swing Boebert district.

This map is a bona fide fair map. I also like the compact shapes and the overall end result. Only real quibble for me is the shape of the El Paso County CD. The county is just right in size that it can be a CD to itself. If you want smaller deviation, then it's better taking a precinct with a less jagged shape.

[lfromnj]

Cooked up what I think is a decent CO map that is closer. I also now am more seeing the reason why El Paso should be the cut county and not Teller considering how rural Eastern El Paso county is. However I did like my current configuration.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f71e059f-65da-4c98-bad9-274d526e5ae4

Kept Denver besides a small part in the SW whole.
Aurora is also whole

4 Safe D with yellow being the closest of them and then 1 tossup which is red at Trump +3/Polis +1 so I assume Biden won it by a decent margin.
Also the city of Aurora is whole.
All outstate districts should be safe for the GOP. I can't see anyway to realistically get a swing outstate district besides putting Larimer with outstate and dumping Weld with Boulder which I really don't like.Boulder + Larimer are a pretty decent COI.

Outstate really can only be one CO springs district which will not be touched in any circumstance whatsoever and then the Eastern district has to expand to Take Pueblo either due to the loss of Douglass or Weld which removes any chance for a swing Boebert district.

This map is a bona fide fair map. I also like the compact shapes and the overall end result. Only real quibble for me is the shape of the El Paso County CD. The county is just right in size that it can be a CD to itself. If you want smaller deviation, then it's better taking a precinct with a less jagged shape.

Yes I changed up and took a smaller precinct



Although El Paso has grown slightly faster than the state as a whole so its more likely one will have to take a precinct from the county itself with 2020 pop.

[Stuart98]

Tried making a CO map.



Denver metro inset:



No incumbents get doublestacked, though most shift around a bit. The new 3rd is an open seat. It's significantly more democratic than the old one (Clinton +2 in 2016, D+0 PVI) but good chance Scott Tipton wins it in 2022 though unlikely he keeps it for the whole decade. Likely 5-3 map, though 4-4 (or 5-3 R if some trends in Denver suburbs reverse and the 8th becomes competitive) and 6-2 are possible.

[Devils30]

I feel like Boebert could fare really poorly with a commission, people will want to see her be out of Congress. A 5-3 D map seems the most likely but I would go for 6-2 if I'm the Dems. CO is a blue state and should reflect it.

[Former President tack50]

Another attempt at a fair map, with the identified COI:



CO-01 (Denver): Clinton+44, D+26
CO-02 (Boulder & Fort Collins): Clinton+25, D+11
CO-03 (Western Colorado): Trump+15, R+9
CO-04 (Eastern Colorado): Trump+24, R+11
CO-05 (Colorado Springs): Trump+22, R+13
CO-06 (Arapahoe / Southern Denver Suburbs): Clinton+14, D+5
CO-07 (Jefferson & Douglas / Southwest Denver suburbs): Trump+4, R+5
CO-08 (Broomfield & Adams / Northern Denver suburbs): Clinton+10, D+5

With the 2016 districts this would have been a 4D-3R-1S map; though given trends I imagine the 7th district must be at least Lean D by now

[Sol]

Is CO getting a commission next year? Sorry, haven't been following political developments there closely.

[Calthrina950]

Is CO getting a commission next year? Sorry, haven't been following political developments there closely.

Yes. Amendments Y and Z, passed by Colorado voters in 2018, created redistricting commissions that will be responsible for drawing the state's congressional and state legislative districts next year.

[It’s so Joever]

Boulder county should be split into two.
The Western part of Boulder is more like mountain area and definitely is more culturally in sync with the Western slopes than Longmont and Lafayette.
Any fair map of Colorado splits Boulder and puts some of it into CO-3 (or the equivalent)

Source: Unbiased Coloradan who wants to see the West Boulder-Grand Junction and Longmont/Greeley COIs kept whole.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Boulder county should be split into two.
The Western part of Boulder is more like mountain area and definitely is more culturally in sync with the Western slopes than Longmont and Lafayette.
Any fair map of Colorado splits Boulder and puts some of it into CO-3 (or the equivalent)

Source: Unbiased Coloradan who wants to see the West Boulder-Grand Junction and Longmont/Greeley COIs kept whole.

You want to cross the Front Range like that and force SW Colorado in with the plains? No way!

Drawing the split like this is just way too obvious of a choice:

[It’s so Joever]

Boulder county should be split into two.
The Western part of Boulder is more like mountain area and definitely is more culturally in sync with the Western slopes than Longmont and Lafayette.
Any fair map of Colorado splits Boulder and puts some of it into CO-3 (or the equivalent)

Source: Unbiased Coloradan who wants to see the West Boulder-Grand Junction and Longmont/Greeley COIs kept whole.

You want to cross the Front Range like that and force SW Colorado in with the plains? No way!

Drawing the split like this is just way too obvious of a choice:

Yes but we can’t keep Boulder together anymore.
Going from the east end of even the city of Boulder to the west end is a shocking experience. They clearly do not belong in the same district and it is imperative we best represent the people. For in go in SW Colorado with the plains is not ideal, but we could also give East El Paso county to the plains as well to reduce it a bit.

I am only saying this in the interest of all Coloradans.

[Torie]

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/919a20c5-5709-4867-96a8-213af64c844d


This is my attempt to Gerrymander Colorado 6-2 for the dems, and I think I did fairy well. The Western district is a D+3, and so is the Jefferson County one so it could work out to possibly be a dummymander, but I think trends could basically make it safe. Same goes for the D+5 Pueblo and Boulder.

[Nyvin]

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

When has any one let a little thing like communities of interest and geography get in the way of gerrymandering?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

When has any one let a little thing like communities of interest and geography get in the way of gerrymandering?

Yeah but some people are connecting Douglas and Jefferson in fair maps. Three things need to happen in any fair Denver configuration.

1. Douglas and Jefferson should never, ever be connected.

2. Gilpin and Clear Creek go with Jefferson--not the Western Slope.

3. DIA gets put in with Adams and Arapahoe, not the rest of Denver.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is a reworked version of the map I drew earlier, this time taking into account the things Blairite said. You can argue the map this time reflects COIs better, though it does split more counties this time.

Requirement 2 in particular is quite bad, as it forced me into a split of tiny Broomfield county (district 2 was otherwise constructed with full counties). The other 2 requirements I can see where he is coming from though.

Interestingly in terms of partisanship this would be worse for Dems but of course partisanship should not matter in a fair map



CO-01 (Denver): Clinton+51, D+24
CO-02 (Boulder & Fort Collins): Clinton+25, D+11
CO-03 (West Colorado): Trump+14, R+8
CO-04 (East Colorado): Trump+20, R+9
CO-05 (Colorado Springs): Trump+22, R+13
CO-06 (South Denver Suburbs): Trump+11, R+9
CO-07 (West Denver Suburbs): Clinton+8, D+2
CO-08 (East Denver Suburbs & Aurora): Clinton+23, D+12

[Torie]

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

When has any one let a little thing like communities of interest and geography get in the way of gerrymandering?

Yeah but some people are connecting Douglas and Jefferson in fair maps. Three things need to happen in any fair Denver configuration.

1. Douglas and Jefferson should never, ever be connected.

2. Gilpin and Clear Creek go with Jefferson--not the Western Slope.

3. DIA gets put in with Adams and Arapahoe, not the rest of Denver.

Life is a series of choices, and what seems a sine qua non to one, is not to another. It is not as if these suburbs are all that dissimilar, although admittedly all things being equal connecting Douglas to the suburbs directly north would be the most desirable. But these matters when disagreement occurs are rarely equal. In this case many would want to balance that consideration against the number and severity of county and municipal chops, compactness, nesting CD's in metro areas, number of competitive seats, and proportionality, rather than view the micro-geography as you described it, as a deal killer.

Perhaps you might want to quote my post above with my map on it, and then put up yours for comparison. By the way, one thing that puzzles me, is why some of you post maps that fail to show the county lines, and when it is an issue with municipal chops of some importance, the city lines as well.  Many of these maps lacking such lines I really cannot adequately assess. The DRA affords showing such lines of course, so I hope it becomes a more popular display option.

In any event, below is a map that clearly shows the roads and county and city lines of the area. As you no doubt know, there is a big beautiful state highway (121) connecting Douglas to Jefferson, and a second (470) that just misses by about a 100 feet or something. Life is beautiful.

Enjoy your day, and thank you for your comments. If I see a map that I think is superior that someone posts (like Mr. Turner did for Michigan), my hat will be off to them. Hey, perhaps it will be yours!