Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Nyvin]

So lmao. Between CO and MI, independent commissions are doing a better job at drawing Republican gerrymanders than Republican legislators are.

Pretty much :-/

The good thing is the overall demographics for Republicans in Colorado are still horrible and the map could go 6-2 still by mid decade.

Sucks that dems have a pointless tossup race in 2022 though.

[Skill and Chance]

So lmao. Between CO and MI, independent commissions are doing a better job at drawing Republican gerrymanders than Republican legislators are.

Pretty much :-/

The good thing is the overall demographics for Republicans in Colorado are still horrible and the map could go 6-2 still by mid decade.

Sucks that dems have a pointless tossup race in 2022 though.

I would be surprised if the all-Colorado Springs CO-05 lasts the decade for R's, but where are you seeing a 6th opportunity?  The Plains CD is safe R forever, and CO-03 has basically all of the R-trending parts of the state (the plurality-Hispanic southern areas) in it.  Grand Junction is trending rapidly D, but not sure if it's big enough?  I don't think the Dem trend is that strong in CD-08 vs. statewide, so it's not like that one will become Safe Dem either. 

IMO the main takeaway so far is that R commissioners in Biden blowout states that were still close in the Obama era are going to insist on an even split by 2016 numbers. 

[Nyvin]

So lmao. Between CO and MI, independent commissions are doing a better job at drawing Republican gerrymanders than Republican legislators are.

Pretty much :-/

The good thing is the overall demographics for Republicans in Colorado are still horrible and the map could go 6-2 still by mid decade.

Sucks that dems have a pointless tossup race in 2022 though.

I would be surprised if the all-Colorado Springs CO-05 lasts the decade for R's, but where are you seeing a 6th opportunity?  The Plains CD is safe R forever, and CO-03 has basically all of the R-trending parts of the state (the plurality-Hispanic southern areas) in it.  Grand Junction is trending rapidly D, but not sure if it's big enough?  I don't think the Dem trend is that strong in CD-08 vs. statewide, so it's not like that one will become Safe Dem either. 

IMO the main takeaway so far is that R commissioners in Biden blowout states that were still close in the Obama era are going to insist on an even split by 2016 numbers. 

1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8

[Skill and Chance]

Given that the CO Supreme Court is unanimous Dem appointees, I do wonder if they will order some modifications to CO-08 and/or CO-03.  The legal justification would likely involve maximizing Hispanic opportunity districts.

[Torie]

Given that the CO Supreme Court is unanimous Dem appointees, I do wonder if they will order some modifications to CO-08 and/or CO-03.  The legal justification would likely involve maximizing Hispanic opportunity districts.

Does the court have some legal authority to do that? The idea behind courts is to apply some legal text.  The VRA does not deal with 'opportunity" districts.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made a 6 D - 2 R map that double bunks Boebart and Perlmutter and it still has a proportionally rating of 100%! 😂

This is still a better map than what the commissioners made.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4ea28c17-8dce-473e-9725-e913e8ed6246

[Minnesota Mike]

Given that the CO Supreme Court is unanimous Dem appointees, I do wonder if they will order some modifications to CO-08 and/or CO-03.  The legal justification would likely involve maximizing Hispanic opportunity districts.

Oh FFS let it go. Just because Democrats do not like the map is not a reason for the Courts to overturn the commission on very tenuous grounds. Democrats will have to work a bit harder but this is still a 5-3 map.

[S019]

So lmao. Between CO and MI, independent commissions are doing a better job at drawing Republican gerrymanders than Republican legislators are.

MI I believe has partisan proportionality requirements built into the commission, so they'll need to end at 7-6 eventually most likely.

[Skill and Chance]

Given that the CO Supreme Court is unanimous Dem appointees, I do wonder if they will order some modifications to CO-08 and/or CO-03.  The legal justification would likely involve maximizing Hispanic opportunity districts.

Oh FFS let it go. Just because Democrats do not like the map is not a reason for the Courts to overturn the commission on very tenuous grounds. Democrats will have to work a bit harder but this is still a 5-3 map.

I agree with you!  They should not second-guess the commission and it would set a terrible precedent if they did.

[Oryxslayer]

Given that the CO Supreme Court is unanimous Dem appointees, I do wonder if they will order some modifications to CO-08 and/or CO-03.  The legal justification would likely involve maximizing Hispanic opportunity districts.

Oh FFS let it go. Just because Democrats do not like the map is not a reason for the Courts to overturn the commission on very tenuous grounds. Democrats will have to work a bit harder but this is still a 5-3 map.

Of course not, the court won't tell reject the commission. They legally have three months to accept the commissions findings or find the product in places unsatisfactory and recommend changes that they would accept in accordance with the law. I think it's very likely they do this - not because of partisanship - but because it's very hard to justify a few of the COIs - which is part of the commissions legal mandate. The Hispanic seat has white parts of Weld that could be dropped to increase minority access, CD7 is a Rurban seat, and the strict language of Colorado constitutional minority opportunity could require massive changes to the Denver area if so desired.

Like I said many times, last night was not the end of things. It's legally prescribed that the court and the commission can bounce maps back if the court finds it unsatisfactory, similar to the Iowa legislature and it's commission only approaching it from a nonpartisan direction.

[lfromnj]

Seems like the best D candidate is Dave young/Mary Young. Dave is the state treasurer and Mary Young is his wife who represents his state house Biden +4 Eastern Greeley seat. She was uncontested in 2020 but Dave Young won by 16 in 2016.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s a shame they gerrymandered our state and ignored COIs so blatantly. Here is what a COI based map would look like, it ignores the artificial city lines because those really aren’t relevant imo. Are we seriously going to argue a guy in Montbello has more in common with a guy in College View than his literal neighbors just because of city/county boundaries?
This map accurately takes into account the interests of people instead of fake lines drawn by some dead people years ago.

(Ignore my dirty screen, it improves my #populist credentials)

[lfromnj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/23/redistricting-colorado-map-perlmutter-495830

Democrats complained back in June of the preliminary map which gave them a Biden +9 seat as being a 4-4 split lol. They somehow panicked and didn't realize the idiotic commission decided to display the 2018 AG numbers for all 8 districts despite the fact those were the worst performing numbers in Suburban Denver.

Overall summary and end result if it stands by CO supreme court:

The final map has a slight R leaning bias for the middle 2 districts according to median gap and the like but arguably has a Democratic leaning tilt when it comes to MCMC which shows geographical bias better. In the end partisan wise its pretty much what one should expect.

On the other hand excessive Democratic Latino lobbying completely ruined the map by making the commission do a Weld to Adams district instead of just drawing a Latino opportunity district using Aurora and Adams. After that Douglas could be with the Denver metro instead of the plains while Weld could be with the plains which is way more logical. Also Latino lobbying by Democratic reps who were sad they could no longer have the chance to raise millions against Boebert forced CO03 to take in Pueblo instead of Ski liberals. Marginal partisan difference but just frustrating to see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What an utter travesty.

[lfromnj]

Found LULAC's map by the way.

The El Paso/Pueblo district seems to be Biden +10, while the Larimer to Fort collins is Trump +1ish?

[Tintrlvr]

Found LULAC's map by the way.

The El Paso/Pueblo district seems to be Biden +10, while the Larimer to Fort collins is Trump +1ish?

The Fort Collins to Durango district should be pretty solidly Trump I would have thought, without most of the ski towns.

[Oryxslayer]

Found LULAC's map by the way.

The El Paso/Pueblo district seems to be Biden +10, while the Larimer to Fort collins is Trump +1ish?

This is what I meant when I said that they kept submitting "not-gerrymanders," which appear to have gradually turned the commission away from the group.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Found LULAC's map by the way.

The El Paso/Pueblo district seems to be Biden +10, while the Larimer to Fort collins is Trump +1ish?

This is what I meant when I said that they kept submitting "not-gerrymanders," which appear to have gradually turned the commission away from the group.

Tbf it is in the best interest of any minority group to get as many democrats in office as possible

[lfromnj]

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/04/kerry-donovan-lauren-boebert-redistricting-2022-election/.

Waiting for the state supreme court.

[Virginiá]

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/04/kerry-donovan-lauren-boebert-redistricting-2022-election/.

Waiting for the state supreme court.

Also:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1445124843960143891

[Stuart98]

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/04/kerry-donovan-lauren-boebert-redistricting-2022-election/.

Waiting for the state supreme court.

Also:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1445124843960143891

Why are both of their maps gerrymandering southern Colorado but still not splitting Denver?

Why is literally everyone notable allergic to splitting Denver when its boundaries are weird and you can get two MajMins out of it if you do so?

[patzer]

Why are both of their maps gerrymandering southern Colorado but still not splitting Denver?

Why is literally everyone notable allergic to splitting Denver when its boundaries are weird and you can get two MajMins out of it if you do so?

Exactly. It's not even hard to do so neatly- e.g. this map would have the 6th as 44% white, 33% Hispanic, and 15% black, whilst the 7th is 44% Hispanic, 42%, white, 7% black.
(And the 5th is 57% white, 31% Hispanic)




My only theory is that they think there might be more chance of a lawsuit succeeding if they don't want as major change? But that does still seem strange, as it's pretty common to split cities to make VRA districts in general.

[Sol]

It's also easy to keep Denver whole and draw a minority-influence seat by just combining Aurora and Adams--no Weld necessary.

[It’s so Joever]

SPLIT DENVER! MACA!

[Oryxslayer]

Why are both of their maps gerrymandering southern Colorado but still not splitting Denver?

Why is literally everyone notable allergic to splitting Denver when its boundaries are weird and you can get two MajMins out of it if you do so?

Exactly. It's not even hard to do so neatly- e.g. this map would have the 6th as 44% white, 33% Hispanic, and 15% black, whilst the 7th is 44% Hispanic, 42%, white, 7% black.
(And the 5th is 57% white, 31% Hispanic)


My only theory is that they think there might be more chance of a lawsuit succeeding if they don't want as major change? But that does still seem strange, as it's pretty common to split cities to make VRA districts in general.

It's likely some combination of:

- Wanting to preserve the Geographic communities of interest around Colorado's three largest cities. For example, when we starting this whole process one of the first comments frequently presented to the commission was to leave Aurora whole. When you do this, it becomes preferable to not link the city with the north suburbs across rural Adams or the airport, but with those to her south or west. The first draft plan, the one that wrenched Ft. Collins our of Larimar, was very similar to a CLLARO map, but one of the changes made was removing the Colorado Springs arm/cut.

- The commission is a multipartisan body and the views and votes of everyone must be taken into account. The commissions map also should try and reflect the partisan lean of the state, and carving up Denver usually leads to cascading issues that violate both points. At it's most simple, Taking all of Denver's minorities out - both those by the Airport and those in the SW - leaves the remaining district to be paired with Arapahoe and then Douglas, areas that gradually lose a shared identity with White urbanites. The ripple effects can leave a map that at times is gerrymandered for the Dems, so good luck getting a meaningful amount of commissioner votes for that.


If the court rejects with advice, I expect one of their recommendations being to cut Denver and actually make the 8th plurality or more Hispanic. Even in this situation the commission probably won't go for the full cut - just the northern and Airport communities. This can be done while keeping the Greeley link if you put all the white suburbs/exurbs along the county lines in 2 or 7. The full cut would be unpopular for the reasons listed above, and it would not be necessary.