Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion
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  Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion
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Author Topic: Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion  (Read 26294 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #350 on: September 14, 2021, 07:56:53 PM »

So State Senate is 30 Biden districts to 10 Trump districts and State House is 45 Biden districts to 20 Trump districts?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #351 on: September 14, 2021, 08:04:05 PM »

So State Senate is 30 Biden districts to 10 Trump districts and State House is 45 Biden districts to 20 Trump districts?

44-21 but yes.
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S019
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« Reply #352 on: September 15, 2021, 06:17:13 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2021, 06:28:36 PM by Clinton/Kaine/ Northam/ Biden/Warner voter for Youngkin »

Second Draft:

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Stuart98
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« Reply #353 on: September 15, 2021, 06:18:47 PM »


CO-03 is Trump +9 here.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #354 on: September 15, 2021, 06:25:32 PM »


CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #355 on: September 15, 2021, 06:41:21 PM »

The four items in the congressional map that seem to be sacrosanct are keeping Denver whole, keeping Aurora whole (for the most part), a district entirely in El Paso, and a Hispanic opportunity district in Adams and Weld counties.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #356 on: September 15, 2021, 06:45:29 PM »

So changes from previous draft map are that CO03 goes from Trump +4 to Trump +9 and loses a lot of ski counties making there still a moderate D trend but not as strong from 2016 >2020.
Co04 stays as a Safe R district.
Co08 goes from Biden +5 to Biden +7. Previous map was better for the GOP in 2022 with a relatively even chance I would say of a 4-4 result. This one I would say is a decent bit lower for 4-4 though.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #357 on: September 15, 2021, 06:49:30 PM »

Not sure what's the point of choosing Castle Rock over Highlands Ranch if you are going to cut Douglas - the later has some resemblance to communities in Jefferson.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #358 on: September 15, 2021, 07:05:40 PM »

So changes from previous draft map are that CO03 goes from Trump +4 to Trump +9 and loses a lot of ski counties making there still a moderate D trend but not as strong from 2016 >2020.
Co04 stays as a Safe R district.
Co08 goes from Biden +5 to Biden +7. Previous map was better for the GOP in 2022 with a relatively even chance I would say of a 4-4 result. This one I would say is a decent bit lower for 4-4 though.

This one is better for Dems in the short run, but it's more likely to lock in 5D/3R for the decade.  Version 2 could have easily gone 4D/4R in 2022 and then 6D/2R in 2024 or 26. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #359 on: September 15, 2021, 07:42:05 PM »

The four items in the congressional map that seem to be sacrosanct are keeping Denver whole, keeping Aurora whole (for the most part), a district entirely in El Paso, and a Hispanic opportunity district in Adams and Weld counties.

Another factor is keeping Pueblo and the San Luis Valley together despite it being slightly inconvenient in a lot of maps.
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« Reply #360 on: September 15, 2021, 07:53:44 PM »


CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?

This looks closer to a 5-3, anyone have the election data for them all?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #361 on: September 15, 2021, 07:54:47 PM »


CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?

This looks closer to a 5-3, anyone have the election data for them all?

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leecannon
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« Reply #362 on: September 15, 2021, 07:58:06 PM »


CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?

This looks closer to a 5-3, anyone have the election data for them all?



I can live with that, the CO legislature seems like they have no appetite to go any lower, unfortunately
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #363 on: September 17, 2021, 08:29:13 AM »

Boo! I want the trendymander
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #364 on: September 17, 2021, 12:08:49 PM »


CO-03 is Trump +9 here.

Who drew this one?

This looks closer to a 5-3, anyone have the election data for them all?



I can live with that, the CO legislature seems like they have no appetite to go any lower, unfortunately

6-2 was easily possible for the Colorado Democrats. The problem with Democrats is they have a trifecta in just some states, and in a lot of those states, they give it to independent commissions. I'm not saying it's a bad idea but the Democats should play harball instead of always taking the high road when the GOP does gerrymanders wherever possible. And in all honesty, even a 6-2 map wouldn't really be that much of a gerrymander. In any case they can do much better than 5-3, and I'm dissapointed they didn't go any farther. In particular, CO03 can probably be turned into a Biden district if its borders are played around with a bit. They can definitely do it if they've got a district that went to Biden by north of 60 points.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #365 on: September 17, 2021, 01:21:28 PM »

6-2 was easily possible for the Colorado Democrats. The problem with Democrats is they have a trifecta in just some states, and in a lot of those states, they give it to independent commissions. I'm not saying it's a bad idea but the Democats should play harball instead of always taking the high road when the GOP does gerrymanders wherever possible. And in all honesty, even a 6-2 map wouldn't really be that much of a gerrymander. In any case they can do much better than 5-3, and I'm dissapointed they didn't go any farther. In particular, CO03 can probably be turned into a Biden district if its borders are played around with a bit. They can definitely do it if they've got a district that went to Biden by north of 60 points.

I don't think the legislature itself would have given up control of redistricting if there weren't already group(s) collecting signatures for amendments in 2018 that looked likely to be approved/enacted. the Democratic-led legislature figured if redistricting reform was going to end up on the ballot either way, it might as well be amendments that had been crafted with their input.

The problem for Democrats is that they control more critical states for redistricting with an initiative process than there are for Republicans. And even for the Republican-leaning states that do have such a process, those states aren't particularly worthwhile for reform - at least in terms of how many US House seats Democrats could shift back towards them by eliminating gerrymandering. And all of this is also complicated by the fact that Democrats are simultaneously trying to end the practice of gerrymandering nationally while also not trying to screw themselves by just giving up seats to the GOP while Republicans eagerly gerrymander their own states to win more seats.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #366 on: September 17, 2021, 01:23:14 PM »

The LALUC are back with more not-Dem Gerrymander maps apparently.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #367 on: September 17, 2021, 01:43:31 PM »

6-2 was easily possible for the Colorado Democrats. The problem with Democrats is they have a trifecta in just some states, and in a lot of those states, they give it to independent commissions. I'm not saying it's a bad idea but the Democats should play harball instead of always taking the high road when the GOP does gerrymanders wherever possible. And in all honesty, even a 6-2 map wouldn't really be that much of a gerrymander. In any case they can do much better than 5-3, and I'm dissapointed they didn't go any farther. In particular, CO03 can probably be turned into a Biden district if its borders are played around with a bit. They can definitely do it if they've got a district that went to Biden by north of 60 points.

I don't think the legislature itself would have given up control of redistricting if there weren't already group(s) collecting signatures for amendments in 2018 that looked likely to be approved/enacted. the Democratic-led legislature figured if redistricting reform was going to end up on the ballot either way, it might as well be amendments that had been crafted with their input.

The problem for Democrats is that they control more critical states for redistricting with an initiative process than there are for Republicans. And even for the Republican-leaning states that do have such a process, those states aren't particularly worthwhile for reform - at least in terms of how many US House seats Democrats could shift back towards them by eliminating gerrymandering. And all of this is also complicated by the fact that Democrats are simultaneously trying to end the practice of gerrymandering nationally while also not trying to screw themselves by just giving up seats to the GOP while Republicans eagerly gerrymander their own states to win more seats.

Of the initiative states, doing a true commission amendment in FL would be by far the best remaining Dem opportunity (though it requires 60% to pass, the process has gotten stricter and adverse court rulings are likely, so this isn't a slam dunk).  OK, AR, and NE (especially with the state having EV-by-CD) would all be worth pursuing for Democrats.  Maybe MO, but a largely pro-Dem proposal was passed in 2018 and then repealed by another referendum in 2020 so IDK?  I don't think MS has initiatives anymore after a recent state supreme court ruling (it wasn't a strictly partisan ruling either- 6/3 with 4 conservatives and 2 liberals in the majority).

Republicans actually have more remaining opportunities for redistricting initiatives.  Illinois would obviously be the biggest one, but like with Dems in Florida, there have been adverse court rulings when trying to get it on the ballot.  Next would be Massachusetts, but the process requires the support of 25% of the legislature to go to the ballot.  MA R's don't even have 25% right now.  Oregon and Nevada would definitely be worth pursuing.  They can also repeal maps by referendum in NM and MD, though that just kicks it back to the legislature.  In the case of NM, they could plausibly flip the governorship and get a say in the new map if they did this in 2022. 

BTW the only place Dems explicitly gave up power was in VA, which required legislative approval to get it to the ballot.  Everywhere else involved initiatives.   
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Virginiá
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« Reply #368 on: September 17, 2021, 02:38:50 PM »

IIRC, there is already an initiative planned for Oregon that would essentially force map redraws in 2024 if it passes in 2022. They were trying to go for 2020, but COVID and court rulings not extending deadlines for initiatives ended that.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #369 on: September 17, 2021, 02:42:33 PM »

IIRC, there is already an initiative planned for Oregon that would essentially force map redraws in 2024 if it passes in 2022. They were trying to go for 2020, but COVID and court rulings not extending deadlines for initiatives ended that.

I recall OK and AR Dems were trying something similar at the beginning of 2020 but it failed due to COVID.  Maybe they will bring it back?

Now that I think about it, the single biggest remaining opportunity for Dems would be flipping the Texas Supreme Court over the course of the decade and doing a PA/NC there.  They run in statewide elections just like PA and NC, but they only have 6 year terms, so 3/9 seats are up every 2 years.

They could try the same thing in Georgia, but those are non-partisan judicial elections, so the incumbents basically never lose. 
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Virginiá
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« Reply #370 on: September 17, 2021, 02:56:36 PM »

I recall OK and AR Dems were trying something similar at the beginning of 2020 but it failed due to COVID.  Maybe they will bring it back?

The problem in conservative Republican-led states is that generally when anyone tries to use the initiative process to stop Republican power grabs (or pass too many policies conservatives dislike), Republicans then immediately retaliate by trying to dismantle the initiative system or at least making it so cumbersome that it's no longer a viable route for passing policy that doesn't have extremely broad support. For example, Arkansas after the redistricting initiative failed to make the ballot due to COVID:

https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/05/03/arkansas-passes-bill-with-multiple-restrictions-on-the-ballot-initiative-process/

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• ban paying signature gatherers based on the number of signatures gathered, a payment method called pay-per-signature;

• require circulators to be state residents and citizens;

• add certain offenses that disqualify a person from being a signature gatherer, including assault, battery, intimidation, threatening, sexual offenses, trespassing, vandalism, and theft (in addition to the existing list of any felony, election law violations, fraud, forgery, and identity theft);

• require initiative sponsors to certify that signature gatherers do not have any disqualifying conviction and put the burden of proof on initiative sponsors with regard to lawsuits and administrative proceedings;

• make it a felony for petition sponsors or their representatives to knowingly pay a circulator for or submit petitions for which the circulator did not personally witness all signatures; and

• make it a felony for a circulator to not report another circulator that provides a false affidavit that they personally witnessed all signatures.

Similar to Republican states that have tried to make voter registration drives a crime, they make gathering signatures on a mass scale so risky that people stop trying.

Oklahoma passed a few new restrictions but they wouldn't really hinder a redistricting measure like Arkansas would.
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patzer
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« Reply #371 on: September 18, 2021, 11:36:59 AM »

The four items in the congressional map that seem to be sacrosanct are keeping Denver whole, keeping Aurora whole (for the most part), a district entirely in El Paso, and a Hispanic opportunity district in Adams and Weld counties.

Also keeping Aurora with Centennial seems pretty sacrosanct. The most natural combination is Aurora with the eastern plains, but they seem to be doing all they can to avoid that and do less natural pairings such as putting the eastern slope with Fort Collins- presumably in an effort to keep that district safe R.
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Sol
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« Reply #372 on: September 18, 2021, 11:35:25 PM »

The four items in the congressional map that seem to be sacrosanct are keeping Denver whole, keeping Aurora whole (for the most part), a district entirely in El Paso, and a Hispanic opportunity district in Adams and Weld counties.

Also keeping Aurora with Centennial seems pretty sacrosanct. The most natural combination is Aurora with the eastern plains, but they seem to be doing all they can to avoid that and do less natural pairings such as putting the eastern slope with Fort Collins- presumably in an effort to keep that district safe R.

I mean, Aurora is clearly a city of metro Denver--it's not a good fit with rural Eastern Colorado.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #373 on: September 23, 2021, 02:35:10 PM »



Third times the charm? Eh, I doubt it.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #374 on: September 23, 2021, 03:45:49 PM »

Not getting all hate Democrats are giving this map on Twitter. It's a 4D-3R-1 lean D map and that seems about right to me. As long as Denver is kept as whole as possible (as it should under a commission map IMO) the median district is going to be to the right of the state as a whole. If Democrats can't win a Biden +4.6 district in a state that is likely to keep moving left then they have big problems.
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