Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[BoiseBoy]

Some more proposals from LULAC and Colrado Common Cause:

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/premium/colorado-congressional-redistricting-commission-recommends-southern-district-concept-to-help-hispanic-minority-vra-compiance/article_947a5186-0c10-11ec-852c-9bf31ff0dd88.html

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You can read the article if your adblocker is disabled. Regardless, here are the maps the article shows:

June Prelim Map


LULAC Map


CLLARO Map


Colorado Common Cause Map

[If my soul was made of stone]

It's essentially impossible to create a proper minority-influence district outside of metro Denver, which makes me wonder if there are ulterior partisan motives at play here. Either it would be a safe R district where all the Democrats are Hispanics but their candidates can't win, or it would be a swing district with a much smaller Hispanic minority where the Democratic primaries are controlled by ski country McGovernites. It makes much more sense to draw a Hispanic district in Denver and Adams County than to try this proposal.

[UncleSam]

Tbh all these maps look disgusting. I guess the shape of Denver is partially to blame but still...

[It’s so Joever]

Even in a true fair map (Not a Forumlurker fair map) North and South Denver would be split with the North being combined with Adams for a Hispanic district and the South being placed with Arapahoe county suburbs.

[patzer]

It's essentially impossible to create a proper minority-influence district outside of metro Denver, which makes me wonder if there are ulterior partisan motives at play here. Either it would be a safe R district where all the Democrats are Hispanics but their candidates can't win, or it would be a swing district with a much smaller Hispanic minority where the Democratic primaries are controlled by ski country McGovernites. It makes much more sense to draw a Hispanic district in Denver and Adams County than to try this proposal.

It's possible to make a southern Hispanic-opportunity Dem-leaning district that's over 30% Hispanic. Here's my map of that; in this case, Hispanic voters would likely dominate the Dem primaries, there aren't as many ski towns. (My map also has a 40% Hispanic district north of Denver; it's very much possible to have both)



Data is 2020 presidential

[S019]

It's essentially impossible to create a proper minority-influence district outside of metro Denver, which makes me wonder if there are ulterior partisan motives at play here. Either it would be a safe R district where all the Democrats are Hispanics but their candidates can't win, or it would be a swing district with a much smaller Hispanic minority where the Democratic primaries are controlled by ski country McGovernites. It makes much more sense to draw a Hispanic district in Denver and Adams County than to try this proposal.

It's possible to make a southern Hispanic-opportunity Dem-leaning district that's over 30% Hispanic. Here's my map of that; in this case, Hispanic voters would likely dominate the Dem primaries, there aren't as many ski towns. (My map also has a 40% Hispanic district north of Denver; it's very much possible to have both)



Data is 2020 presidential

The only issue with this is that's an obvious Dem gerrymander that the Republicans on the commission would never let through. Even a legislative map probably wouldn't go for 7-1. I mean I'd be happy if the commission passed this, but I wouldn't expect it to happen, I'm even mildly surprised that they're trying to (probably) give Dems a Southern-based seat.

[Tintrlvr]

It's essentially impossible to create a proper minority-influence district outside of metro Denver, which makes me wonder if there are ulterior partisan motives at play here. Either it would be a safe R district where all the Democrats are Hispanics but their candidates can't win, or it would be a swing district with a much smaller Hispanic minority where the Democratic primaries are controlled by ski country McGovernites. It makes much more sense to draw a Hispanic district in Denver and Adams County than to try this proposal.

It's possible to make a southern Hispanic-opportunity Dem-leaning district that's over 30% Hispanic. Here's my map of that; in this case, Hispanic voters would likely dominate the Dem primaries, there aren't as many ski towns. (My map also has a 40% Hispanic district north of Denver; it's very much possible to have both)



Data is 2020 presidential

The only issue with this is that's an obvious Dem gerrymander that the Republicans on the commission would never let through. Even a legislative map probably wouldn't go for 7-1. I mean I'd be happy if the commission passed this, but I wouldn't expect it to happen, I'm even mildly surprised that they're trying to (probably) give Dems a Southern-based seat.

Not sure this is really a Democratic gerrymander, or at least really an effective one; the Republicans could easily win 4/8 of the seats, even if 7/8 voted for Biden. At the least, it would be a very risky move for the Democrats (and that district 5 isn't a very efficient pack, either).

[Tintrlvr]

Now, here's a Democratic gerrymander. 7-1, all of the Democratic districts except the Hispano one in the south are more than Biden+10. The southern seat is Biden+4 but also does have Democratic history in some areas (though also some new areas for the Democrats, like a lot of the Colorado Springs parts of the district). I think this is quite clean for such an aggressive gerrymander, too, and doesn't even crack Denver.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffaf6af8-a955-4b01-867a-7c5e0c5388ca

[patzer]

Now, here's a Democratic gerrymander. 7-1, all of the Democratic districts except the Hispano one in the south are more than Biden+10. The southern seat is Biden+4 but also does have Democratic history in some areas (though also some new areas for the Democrats, like a lot of the Colorado Springs parts of the district). I think this is quite clean for such an aggressive gerrymander, too, and doesn't even crack Denver.

Yeah, Biden winning in 2020 for sure isn't a sign of a safe district. For instance, it's possible to modify my last map a bit to make all eight districts Biden 2020 ones (and incidentally increasing the 8th to 43% Hispanic too)- however, four of the eight voted Trump in 2016, and three of the others were all won by Clinton by less than 9 points...

So, this map looks a gerrymander- and would be if Dem success in CO keeps improving- but on the other hand could easily function as a "maximum competitive districts" map.

[Tintrlvr]

Now, here's a Democratic gerrymander. 7-1, all of the Democratic districts except the Hispano one in the south are more than Biden+10. The southern seat is Biden+4 but also does have Democratic history in some areas (though also some new areas for the Democrats, like a lot of the Colorado Springs parts of the district). I think this is quite clean for such an aggressive gerrymander, too, and doesn't even crack Denver.

Yeah, Biden winning in 2020 for sure isn't a sign of a safe district. For instance, it's possible to modify my last map a bit to make all eight districts Biden 2020 ones (and incidentally increasing the 8th to 43% Hispanic too)- however, four of the eight voted Trump in 2016, and three of the others were all won by Clinton by less than 9 points...

So, this map looks a gerrymander- and would be if Dem success in CO keeps improving- but on the other hand could easily function as a "maximum competitive districts" map.

Right, that's why I targeted Biden+10 as the goal (and actually only the Fort Collins district is Biden+10; the other Likely D seats are higher at Biden+17 (Adams), Biden+16 (Jefferson) and Biden+12 (Boulder)). Other than the southern Colorado district, all of the Democratic districts on my map also voted for Clinton in 2016 and voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016 (and actually the southern Colorado district has voted Democratic in every statewide election since 2016 other than President 2016) so should all be pretty safe. The competitive district in southern Colorado just is what it is - best you can do without something really aggressive.

[patzer]

It does feel clear though that if Colorado’s trends continue, it’s a state that’s very easy to gerrymander thanks to the central nature of the cities in the states as well as the Dem counties dotted around the state.

This time, the Commission will likely make a 5-3 map whether or not it includes a southern district, but I bet if gerrymandering is still happening nationwide by 2030, they’ll not bother with a commission and just do a 8-0.

[Minnesota Mike]

New Preliminary maps have been dropped.

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/staff-congressional-1

Bad news for Lauren Boebert as she has been drawn into a very heavily Democratic district. She will need to pack up the moving van if she wants to remain in Congress.

[Nyvin]

New Preliminary maps have been dropped.

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/staff-congressional-1

Bad news for Lauren Boebert as she has been drawn into a very heavily Democratic district. She will need to pack up the moving van if she wants to remain in Congress.

Wow, that's a total departure from what they had previously, aside from El Paso and Denver.

Boebert can still win in that southern district though.  Isn't she from Mesa County?

Edit - Oh, guess she lives in Garfield.

[Roll Roons]

New Preliminary maps have been dropped.

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/staff-congressional-1

Bad news for Lauren Boebert as she has been drawn into a very heavily Democratic district. She will need to pack up the moving van if she wants to remain in Congress.

Wow, that's a total departure from what they had previously, aside from El Paso and Denver.

Boebert can still win in that southern district though.  Isn't she from Mesa County?

Garfield, though maybe she could carpetbag? Though apparently even CO-03 only voted for Trump by less than 5.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looks like 3 Safe D districts, 1 likely D district, 2 safe R districts, 1 likely R district, and 1 tossup (maybe tilt D).

[Nyvin]

Why in the world would they put Fort Collins in the eastern district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 3rd still leans GOP - right?

[Devils30]

It looks like a 5-3 map with all 5 Dems Biden +10 or better.

[Roll Roons]

That 3rd still leans GOP - right?

Only narrowly. It could happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why in the world would they put Fort Collins in the eastern district?

The 8th dislocates the 4th and the 4th is compensated with part of the 2nd, with the 2nd eating into the 3rd.

[Nyvin]

Looks like 3 Safe D districts, 1 likely D district, 2 safe R districts, 1 likely R district, and 1 tossup (maybe tilt D).

The 8th (western Adams/Weld) and third (South) both kinda look like tossups.   I guess 8th could be called tilt D and 3rd tilt R.

4-2-2 map IMO.

[lfromnj]

Very similar to the previous round in what occured. A lot of feedback etc but in the end some Democratic group masquerading as a Latino interest group just proposed a gerrymander.  . Then the commission took the base of that gerrymander which is overall not very good on COI's but made it stop being an extreme gerrymander.



Notice the similarities.
Changes were giving CO03 4 points of R and evening out CO04 and CO8.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like 3 Safe D districts, 1 likely D district, 2 safe R districts, 1 likely R district, and 1 tossup (maybe tilt D).

The 8th (western Adams/Weld) and third (South) both kinda look like tossups.   I guess 8th could be called tilt D and 3rd tilt R.

4-2-2 map IMO.

Third consecutive time a new CD winnable for both parties is drawn, bordering Denver. It happened in 2002 and in 2012 as well.

[lfromnj]

One thing to note about CO08 is that it may have had a moderate D trend in 2020 from Trump +2.3 to Biden +4.9 it was actually Obama +7.7 in 2012. Unlike a Douglas + Arapahoe + South Jefferson rich district it did vote for Hickenlooper by 1.5 though.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think Ken Buck actually lives in the new 8th but I would guess he runs in the 4th.