Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Nyvin]

With 2018 numbers it's now possible to make a outright Hispanic majority seat.   With the actual Census numbers this only bound to become easier.

Think there's a good chance of one being drawn?   Seems kinda morally wrong not to give them a seat.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/aed9a6ec-f7b5-4175-9731-5602be5c1f09

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

You can definitely make a Hispanic opportunity seat, but with CVAP numbers, it's still going to be dominated by whites, even in the Dem primary. I considered it but I ultimately decided against it, especially considering how it splits Denver and Aurora.

[voice_of_resistance]

And CO isn't required to do so. Whites in Colorado aren't uniformly opposed to electing a Hispanic candidate, so it would just be pure packing of minorities to dilute Democratic voting strength to create a Hispanic VRA seat there.

[Nyvin]

And CO isn't required to do so. Whites in Colorado aren't uniformly opposed to electing a Hispanic candidate, so it would just be pure packing of minorities to dilute Democratic voting strength to create a Hispanic VRA seat there.

It doesnt really dilute Democratic voting strength, unless you're making tentacle districts out of Denver

[Oryxslayer]

And CO isn't required to do so. Whites in Colorado aren't uniformly opposed to electing a Hispanic candidate, so it would just be pure packing of minorities to dilute Democratic voting strength to create a Hispanic VRA seat there.

It doesnt really dilute Democratic voting strength, unless you're making tentacle districts out of Denver

If anything, Dems want the minority seat in this situation. It's being built out of an area that is already very blue, so no dems are getting cut. In exchange for slight packing, Dems get to seriously cut and spread out Denver, something that would normally only be possible under D-gerry rules.

[Idaho Conservative]

And CO isn't required to do so. Whites in Colorado aren't uniformly opposed to electing a Hispanic candidate, so it would just be pure packing of minorities to dilute Democratic voting strength to create a Hispanic VRA seat there.

It doesnt really dilute Democratic voting strength, unless you're making tentacle districts out of Denver

If anything, Dems want the minority seat in this situation. It's being built out of an area that is already very blue, so no dems are getting cut. In exchange for slight packing, Dems get to seriously cut and spread out Denver, something that would normally only be possible under D-gerry rules.

cutting Denver doesn't hurt reps, as long as it isn't paired with exurban areas

[dpmapper]

Why wouldn't you pair Jefferson with (most of the remainder of) Douglas as the leftover suburban counties? 

[Nyvin]

Why wouldn't you pair Jefferson with (most of the remainder of) Douglas as the leftover suburban counties? 

Because if you don't use Douglas, where else do you get the rest of the population for the eastern farmland district?

[dpmapper]

What's wrong with putting Pueblo and other parts of southern Colorado in there in place of Douglas?  The ski areas can go with western Colorado. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why wouldn't you pair Jefferson with (most of the remainder of) Douglas as the leftover suburban counties? 

Because if you don't use Douglas, where else do you get the rest of the population for the eastern farmland district?

Weld and Pueblo Counties.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/bfa1ccb0-dd04-4bb2-b8eb-1894a1ecbe7d

CO-01: Clinton+55, Polis+60, D+26 (54% white, 30% Hispanic, 11% black)
CO-02: Clinton+28, Polis+35, D+13
CO-03: Trump+16, Stapleton+8, R+9
CO-04: Trump+20, Stapleton+18, R+11
CO-05: Trump+22, Stapleton+18, R+13
CO-06: Clinton+13, Polis+19, D+4
CO-07: Clinton+9. Polis+16, D+3
CO-08: Trump+3, Polis+2, R+2

In terms of partisanship, the map would be 4 Safe D (technically the 6th and 7th would be like Likely D, but with trends they will be Safe D), 3 Safe R and 1 Lean R/Tossup district.

[Nyvin]

What's wrong with putting Pueblo and other parts of southern Colorado in there in place of Douglas?  The ski areas can go with western Colorado.  

I hate it, but it works.   The ski areas have way more in common with the Denver metro than they do with the western rural (let alone Pueblo).   But if the CO Dems want that big giant rural district out there they can do that.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a map with a majority-minority district.  I combined diverse areas of Denver, Adams, and Arapahoe to make a 34% white district.  Then combined the rest of Denver with the inner ring suburban areas or Arapahoe county.  This isn't the best from a COI perpective, but Dems will like Denver being cracked in 2.  Now there are 2 Titanium D seats in the Denver metro.  Next, Jefferson county is a pretty solid COI, and it is combined with a little bit of white Denver and Southern Arapahoe.   Likely D.  Then a 4th Denver metro seat forms pretty naturally out of the white areas remaining of Adams and Arapahoe+Douglas.  Likely R.  I like how I created 4 Denver and 4 non Denver seats, rather than mixing and matching.  Then a Boulder+Fort Collins district forms pretty naturally.  College town district, Safe D.  I drew a western CO resort district which is a bit more compact than the current one, Likely R.  Then a Colorado Springs district which nearly perfectly fits in El Paso County, Safe R.  Finally a rural east CO farming district, which also includes a lot of spanish southern CO, Safe R

[EastAnglianLefty]

34% white still probably isn't a performing majority-minority district. I managed to draw one that was by population 34.2% white, 49.1% Hispanic and 11.7% black. By CVAP, it's 48.7% white, 34.0% Hispanic and 12.1% black. Given Clinton got just under 70% in it, amongst Democratic voters whites probably still have a decent plurality.

Your lines are slightly different from those I picked, so the exact figures may vary somewhat, but it's probably not enough to make it perform.

[Idaho Conservative]

34% white still probably isn't a performing majority-minority district. I managed to draw one that was by population 34.2% white, 49.1% Hispanic and 11.7% black. By CVAP, it's 48.7% white, 34.0% Hispanic and 12.1% black. Given Clinton got just under 70% in it, amongst Democratic voters whites probably still have a decent plurality.

Your lines are slightly different from those I picked, so the exact figures may vary somewhat, but it's probably not enough to make it perform.

Well, that's the best than can be drawn.  I don't think it's possible to get a less white seat. Maybe a tiny bit with less clean lines, but wouldn't be too different.  This is more of a minority opportunity seat. 

[Sol]

Since everyone's posting their map, here's mine (link).



Denver Closeup


Since taking those screenshots I figured out a precinct trade which unifies Ken Caryl in the 4th district and and neatens the Denver lines a little too; it's a very minor change but you can see it in the link above.

I think this fits communities of interest pretty well--the 8th is mostly in the High Plains and only takes in Weld/Cañon City for population, the 2nd stays in the college town Front Range, the 3rd stays in the west, and 4th neatly encapsulates the hoity toity Southern suburbs of Denver. The 6th isn't as Latino as maximally possible but is still plurality Latino by total population and is probably as Hispanic as you can get without either splitting Aurora or Weld County, and thereby screwing the rest of the map up.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Using the 2018 figures, you can get away with surprisingly few county splits:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e0792b75-750e-4a72-b0bb-76c3612f0022

Aside from the isolated bits of counties inside Denver, the only ones to be split are Teller, Jefferson and Bloomfield (and in the latter, the line follows the historic Boulder County border.) As far as possible, I also tried to avoid splitting municipalities. I'm not convinced it's the best map, but it's certainly one of the cleanest.

The 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th are all safe D, Trump won the 8th by 2.5%.

[Sol]

snip

This is a very nice map!

I guess my only nitpick would be that I don't necessarily think following county lines makes a lot of sense in the Denver area--the counties are large and have a bunch of independent city carveouts and enclaves, city boundaries ignore county lines, etc. Plus Arapaho in particular is an odd hash of communities, with far flung plains communities, working class and diverse Aurora, and Denver's Southern inner suburbs, which are whiter and more affluent. Adams has its plains areas too, and northern Aurora, and even Denver's weird airport annexation area could make more sense in a district with the Northern suburbs.

I guess what I'm saying is that an approach which focuses mostly on communities of interest fits Denver better than a county-based approach.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Yeah, I tend to agree - it started out as an attempt to work out groupings based on Denver and El Paso County both being almost exactly the right size for a district, it's just that then there were so many other groupings that worked that I decided to push the idea as far as it would go.

[Nyvin]

I'm pretty confident the eastern 2/3rd's of Adams and Arapaho belong with the eastern farmlands district.   The area has pretty much nothing in common with the Denver Metro at all.   Not that it makes much difference partisan-wise, but including them just for the sake of less county splits seems to ignore the realities of the people living in those areas.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Here is my 8 CD map. I don't know much about Colorado so this may be pretty off in terms of COI etc.

DRA Analytics Score
Proportionality - 78 (99 in current)
Competitiveness - 23 (26 in current)
Minority Rights - 23 (19 in current)
Compactness - 51 (41 in current)
Splitting - 7 counties (9 in current)

Essentially, I traded some proportionality and a marginal amount of competitiveness for less county splitting, greater compactness, and greater minority rights.

Districts
CO-01: Clinton +56.4, Bennet +52.8, Polis +61.4
CO-02: Clinton +27, Bennet +25.4, Polis +34.2
CO-03: Clinton +8.1, Bennet +8.8, Polis +16.8
CO-04: Trump +28.6, Glenn +23.7, Stapleton +27
CO-05: Trump +22.4, Glenn +22.1, Stapleton +17.4
CO-06: Clinton +4.4, Bennet +3, Polis +8.4
CO-07: Clinton +13.4, Bennet +15.8, Polis +19.4
CO-08: Trump +18.9, Glenn +13, Stapleton +11.4

[DINGO Joe]

The rest of it can just fall into place, but I'd like this combo of CD 3 and 4 to occur.  Call it the Big U

[cvparty]

I think this is a pretty fair map. just saw the maps above and noticed it's pretty similar to sol's, the difference being basically whether to split denver or aurora
CO-01: Clinton +55 | Obama +50 | Obama +52
CO-02: Clinton +25 | Obama +23 | Obama +28
CO-03: Trump +12 | Romney +8 | McCain +2
CO-04: Trump +28 | Romney +16 | McCain +13
CO-05: Trump +23 | Romney +22 | McCain +19
CO-06: Clinton +21 | Obama +29 | Obama +27 (VAP minority coalition seat)
CO-07: Clinton +7 | Obama +5 | Obama +9
CO-08: Trump +4 | Romney +12 | McCain +4

The median seat shifted from Romney +2 in 2012 to Clinton +2 in 2016, so I’d imagine it tracks very closely to the statewide vote in the 2020s

[Sol]

I think this is a pretty fair map. just saw the maps above and noticed it's pretty similar to sol's, the difference being basically whether to split denver or aurora
CO-01: Clinton +55 | Obama +50 | Obama +52
CO-02: Clinton +25 | Obama +23 | Obama +28
CO-03: Trump +12 | Romney +8 | McCain +2
CO-04: Trump +28 | Romney +16 | McCain +13
CO-05: Trump +23 | Romney +22 | McCain +19
CO-06: Clinton +21 | Obama +29 | Obama +27 (VAP minority coalition seat)
CO-07: Clinton +7 | Obama +5 | Obama +9
CO-08: Trump +4 | Romney +12 | McCain +4

The median seat shifted from Romney +2 in 2012 to Clinton +2 in 2016, so I’d imagine it tracks very closely to the statewide vote in the 2020s

Haha I've definitely done that before-dank map!

IMO I like your Denver metro configuration better--the only nitpick I'd offer would be I don't love Douglas and Jefferson in the Colorado Springs district--I might play around with that a bit..

[cvparty]

Haha I've definitely done that before-dank map!

IMO I like your Denver metro configuration better--the only nitpick I'd offer would be I don't love Douglas and Jefferson in the Colorado Springs district--I might play around with that a bit..

thanks!! that one jeffco precinct is just for compactness (less than 1000 ppl) so one could easily put it back in the 7th district if preferred. the south douglas part is basically entirely rural--only 20,000 people, so barely 5% of the county, and i think it blends into the northern suburbs of colorado springs (black forest, woodmoor), they're demographically similar.

my map actually uses estimated extrapolated 2020 populations, so with the general configuration that both our maps share, the expansion of CDs 3 and 4 would either force CD5 to expand into rural south douglas, or CD2 to expand into and split broomfield. i decided the former was better, since the douglas cut cleanly ends at where the dense settlements begin (castle rock and northward)