Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This map seems fine.  Tbh though, I think CO-3 is much better for Boebert than it appears on paper.  The type of Democrat you’d need to beat her there even in a wave was probably drawn out or at least doomed in a Democratic primary by the Hispanic areas being drawn out (especially Pueblo County).  This map seems like a pretty fair reflection of CO atm, although I am not surprised that Republicans hoping for a 4-4 in a blue state are disappointed.

[wbrocks67]

Disappointed that Boebert gets a pass with her district not really changing much.

[It’s so Joever]

This is a clear Republican gerrymander that does not accurately take into account the communities of interest in my home state. Boulder is a mountain town and it belongs with the mountains more than SW Colorado, which is more Hispanic and should go with Pueblo.

And North and South Denver are two very different places. Sure they are technically in the same city, but that’s like saying Staten Island and the Bronx should be in the same district. They need to be separated in a fair map.

[Meatball Ron]

but I think it makes sense?

4-4 in 2020

This is an inherent contradiction. A 50/50 split in a state Biden won by 13 points by definition does not make sense.

[lfromnj]

Took another stab at Colorado:


Pretty unorthodox since it splits El Paso, but I think it makes sense?

* 3 districts that are at least 30% hispanic by total population, 2 districts that are at least 25% hispanic by CVAP.
* A majmin district by cvap in metro Denver
* 4-4 in 2020 (and probably every other election in the past decade), like my previous map, though with a bit more dummymander risk.

President 2020 numbers:

Not sure what COI's are being kept together at the expense of El Paso and the Eastern Plains. Doesn't really work well.

[Coastal Elitist]

This map is pretty fair and it's actually not that far off what I drew despite some people on here saying that Douglas and Jefferson wouldn't be drawn together. Also Boebert's district should be fine. The old version was fairly inelastic going to Romney by 6 in 2012 and Trump by 6 in 2020. I think the new version is 2020 Trump+7. I think this would lock in a 5-3 map for the decade.

[patzer]

Given the complaints about Pueblo, I thought I'd have a go at seeing how easy it would be to make the 4th more Hispanic by tweaking the proposed map.

This is what I came up with- the 4th here is 52.1% white, 42.3% Hispanic. Stats are Governor 2018.

It's hard to make it much more Hispanic than that, thanks to the relative lack of Hispanic people outside the Denver district.



Edit... Having said that, it is possible to create a VRA (majority-minority) 4th that's around 48% white, 46% Hispanic- but you would have to cut into Denver a bit. While I couldn't ordinarily imagine them deciding to actually cut into Denver, if there was enough desire for a VRA district it's worthwhile to point out that it can certainly be done while keeping Denver mostly intact. Stats are again 2018 Gubernatorial.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Can't they have the basic moral decency to chop the airport and make the map prettier? Is that really too much to ask?

[Stuart98]

Okay, here's my "the commission's map but without the weird fixation on following CO's horrible city boundaries to the expense of everything else" map:

Pres 2020 numbers:


CO06 is the Trump-Biden district here, Trump+0.9 to Biden +9.3. The R districts are roughly the same as in the commission map. CO-08 becomes majority minority (50.3%) by total population (61% white cvap) and 41.7% hispanic (31.2% cvap), and also becomes safe D. CO-01 is majmin (54.7%) by total population(57.1% white cvap). It is 28.4% hispanic by total population (18.2% CVAP) and 19.4% black (18.1% CVAP).

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1409883109240279047

Legislative out.  Looks ok, Pueblo could be a bit better but at least they were consistent with the relation between the SLV/Pueblo congressionally and legislatively. HD 41 doesn't even seem contiguous

[Oryxslayer]

Zoom ins of the cities from the preliminary state house map. Old Maps for comparison use 2020 Pres. State House:

Denver





Northern Cities





Colorado Springs

[Oryxslayer]

State Senate:

Denver





Northern Cities





Colorado Springs

[Oryxslayer]

Couple reactions:

The addition of the Canon City region to the South Colorado State Senate seat doesn't make much sense.

I'm fairly sure the outer El Paso State House seat is illegal by road connections, and will get changes to resemble it's predecessor.

I wonder why the Ken Caryl House seat gets extended way to highlands in the southwest.

No more Rural Arapahoe + Rural Adams state house seat.

I assume there was some pop reason for swapping suburbs around between the northeastern Douglas House seat and the outer 'remainder' one.

No more parallel Weld senate seats, I think this new version with Loveland and Longmont seats works better, especially in regards to Broomfield.

The Adams and Arapahoe senate seats no longer have tails out into the county rurals east.

The Outer Jefferson senate seat seems like an obvious Dem loss, but the new Highlands Ranch senate seat seems ideal for a pickup.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

No more parallel Weld senate seats, I think this new version with Loveland and Longmont seats works better, especially in regards to Broomfield.

Yeah the bacon strips were always bizarre (and the new Loveland and Longmont seats are much better), but they live on in spirit in HD 63 which appears to stretch from outer Longmont all the way up to Cheyenne.

That Western Weld (purple/fuschia) SD 2 is also one to watch.  That whole strip west of Greeley had some of the biggest shifts in the county in 2020, and a lot of the R growth in the county looks to be in the southwestern parts lumped in with the plains. It won't be competitive in 2022 but could be winnable in a good year by the end of the decade.

[It’s so Joever]

What have these monsters done to my state?

[Nyvin]

I'd like to know the numbers for SD-12 and SD-13 for 2020 (El Paso),  kinda looks like 13 is a dem seat but 12 could be competitive in the near future?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

God this map looks hideously ugly. Serious what gives ?

[Oryxslayer]

God this map looks hideously ugly. Serious what gives ?

The commission has included in their definition, the idea of preserving cities and localities. A noble and productive intention, but the side effect is a bunch of "rough" edges. This is because cities sprawl and have tended to annex whatever they want when you go west of St. Louis, leading to some peculiar lines. It also leads to a few "remainder" rural/exurban districts, like the one in El Paso, that will probably get scrapped cause of road connection or the lack of a COI at the expense of the other seats.

[Nyvin]

So do the incumbents stay in the numbered districts they're in now if they're not up for election until 2024 or do they move to the district they're geographically located in now and run in that seat?

Example being Jim Smallwood (R) being in SD-4 currently represents south east Douglas, but in the preliminary map SD-4 is moved to be the Ft Collins district which is obviously safe D.  

Another one is Pete Lee (D) has SD-11 currently in downtown Colorado Springs, but the district is moved to the western side of El Paso,  but he could challenge John Cooke (R) in SD-13 which covers more of his current district.

There's a lot of stuff like this all over the map.  An R will hold SD-25 until 2024, and that's the northeastern Denver district (same for the western Aurora district, SD-23, held by an R until 2024).

There's really not much of the same going on to advantage the D's in 2022.   It's looking like the Senate chamber is going to be competitive next year just by the numbering of the districts alone.

Edit - I guess the D's hold SD-14 (northern Colorado Springs) until 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Detailed calculations.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just realize that in the early 2010s era, this map would’ve been such an R Gerry (albiet a weak one), with districts 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 all going to Romney despite Obama’s relatively comfortable win in the state

[cvparty]

Just realize that in the early 2010s era, this map would’ve been such an R Gerry (albiet a weak one), with districts 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 all going to Romney despite Obama’s relatively comfortable win in the state

didn’t obama do better than clinton in 8 though? pretty sure it would be 4-4

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just realize that in the early 2010s era, this map would’ve been such an R Gerry (albiet a weak one), with districts 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 all going to Romney despite Obama’s relatively comfortable win in the state

didn’t obama do better than clinton in 8 though? pretty sure it would be 4-4

Actually you might be right. I got R + 0.49 for my 2012 calculations but I realized I messed up.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't understand why all the forum dems are upset about Boebert retaining a safe district...  You do realize that having people like Boebert, MTG, and Gaetz be the face of the Republican Party is a GOOD thing for Dems right?  They are crazy and awful but they repel voters in swing districts from the GOP.  And why does it matter if some less crazy Republican replaced her?  they'd vote the exact same way once they get into office.

[Stuart98]

I don't understand why all the forum dems are upset about Boebert retaining a safe district...  You do realize that having people like Boebert, MTG, and Gaetz be the face of the Republican Party is a GOOD thing for Dems right?  They are crazy and awful but they repel voters in swing districts from the GOP.  And why does it matter if some less crazy Republican replaced her?  they'd vote the exact same way once they get into office.

Boebert is not as good for the party as a 6th D seat would be.