Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[patzer]

Here's my attempt at maximizing competitive districts.
3 safe D, 1 safe R, and 4 swing that could really go either way depending on the year.

I made the new 8th district in the northern Fort Collins/Greeley area; expanded the 4th into Centennial; transferred eastern Colorado to the 6th; and northwestern Colorado to the 2nd.

This is 5R-3D by 2012-18 average (which is what's pictured in the map), but it's 6D-2R by 2018 gubernatorial (and the 4th district was just three points off flipping in the 2018 gubernatorial). Incumbents who've changed districts: Boebert is now in the 2nd, Buck is now in the 8th, Crow is now in the 4th, and I believe everyone else stays in the same place.

Map link? that smells of dummymander in 2020 president.

Here you go: https://davesredistricting.org/join/2c2da2a6-3c3e-4197-9fdf-6b931b60f43f

Given the trend of Douglas County it wouldn't surprise me if that map went for Biden 7-1 in 2020. n.b. I made it on 2018 population, which is why the population isn't quite equal for each district.

[Schiff for Senate]

Democrats have a trifecta in CO. Now that there is an independent redistring commission there for 2020, there will likely be a nonpartisan map, with either 4 Democratic seats, 3 Republican and 1 swing seat or 5 Democratic and 3 Republican. However, here is a gerrymandered map I worked on to give Democrats 6 seats, 1 Republican solid seat, and 1 Republican-tilt seat.
Here is the link: https://districtr.org/plan/22423
Here is the summary of the 8 districts:
1st: A rural district in Eastern and Northwestern Colorado that voted for Stapelton in the 2018 gubernatorial, 68-32% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
2nd: District in Southwest Colorado gerrymandered to give Democrats an edge. Somewhat similar to current CO-03 but more liberal. Voted for Polis, supporting him 54-46% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
3rd: An urban district that includes Pueblo and Colorado Springs. Marginally Republican-leaning, supporting Stapleton in the 2018 gubernatorial 49.38-50.62% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
4th: Northen suburbs of Denver, including Boulder. Voted for Polis in 2018, 61-39% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
5th: East of Denver, stretching from southeast Denver suburbs to Fort Collins. Voted for Polis, 55-45% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
6th: South suburbs of Denver. Voted for Polis, 53-47% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
7th: Northwest of Denver. Voted for Polis in 2018, 62-38% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).
8th: Includes the heart of Denver. Voted for Polis, 80-20% (including only a two-way vote share; excluding third-party or independent votes from calculation).

[Nyvin]

So I was reading some of the comments on the public input forum here -

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/public_comments

Seems like a lot of comments (a majority?) focus on a few issues:

1. Routt and Grand counties get mentioned a lot (especially Grand county for whatever reason), mostly that they don't want to be part of the Front Range districts.  

2. Ski Resort communities wanting to be kept together (also a lot of mentions about not being put in districts with the Front Range area, but mostly they want to be kept intact).

3. Hispanic areas in the south, including Pueblo, being kept intact to maximize hispanic influence

4. El Paso being kept intact, but also there's an active group on the board "True Southern Colorado" that wants El Paso split north/south with other counties to form two districts.

5. A few mentions of keeping the city of Aurora intact

6. Virtually nothing about Denver aside from "keep us out of that district!" lol

edit - forgot this one - 7. Lots of people from Longmont want to be in the district with Boulder and the rest of Larimer (not the eastern farmland district in other words)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's my attempt at maximizing competitive districts.
3 safe D, 1 safe R, and 4 swing that could really go either way depending on the year.

I made the new 8th district in the northern Fort Collins/Greeley area; expanded the 4th into Centennial; transferred eastern Colorado to the 6th; and northwestern Colorado to the 2nd.

This is 5R-3D by 2012-18 average (which is what's pictured in the map), but it's 6D-2R by 2018 gubernatorial (and the 4th district was just three points off flipping in the 2018 gubernatorial). Incumbents who've changed districts: Boebert is now in the 2nd, Buck is now in the 8th, Crow is now in the 4th, and I believe everyone else stays in the same place.

You did a very good job maximizing competitive districts.

[Gass3268]

Tomorrow Colorado will be come the first state to unveil their Congressional Map. It is essentially a first draft and it will probably be adjusted after it goes through a public review process and they get the final Census data.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1407340969255649288?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Beat me to it! Big question is what they do with Boebert. Unlike MTG, she could very well lose in a good year for Democrats.

[Pink Panther]

Tomorrow Colorado will be come the first state to unveil their Congressional Map. It is essentially a first draft and it will probably be adjusted after it goes through a public review process and they get the final Census data.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1407340969255649288?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1407340969255649288

[Lambsbread]

I haven't been following predictions about their lines--what's the likelihood that Boebert's district gets more friendly to Democrats?

[wbrocks67]

I haven't been following predictions about their lines--what's the likelihood that Boebert's district gets more friendly to Democrats?

It sounds like it definitely could lurch left at least a few points, or enough to be very competitive.

[Oryxslayer]

I haven't been following predictions about their lines--what's the likelihood that Boebert's district gets more friendly to Democrats?

Depends. The big question that will be unveiled tomorrow is the fate of the West Slope. All the assorted counties west or part of the Rockies are very close to 1 district, so pairing them together seems like the most natural community ever. However, this forces a Pueblo + Weld linkage via the rurals. While this makes sense geographically, it does force two disparate cities together. The alternative is keeping Pueblo in 3, which would mean another cut into the western side of the state in the north. There's inertia keeping Pueblo with the 3rd, but there was advocacy in favor of a western seat

I think Boebert would prefer things partisan-wise if Pueblo was kept in the seat. Dropping Pueblo does give her some more GOP rural turf, but it also unites all the ski towns. There are more potential D voters there than in pueblo.

[Storr]

I haven't been following predictions about their lines--what's the likelihood that Boebert's district gets more friendly to Democrats?

It sounds like it definitely could lurch left at least a few points, or enough to be very competitive.

Ideally I'd prefer a 4D-3R 1 competitive map, and Bobert's district would necessarily be the competitive one since it was the closest in 2020, going 51.6% Trump 46.1%.

Edit: I remembered Colorado is getting an 8th District. It there anywhere it's likely to be located (of course it will be somewhere in metro Denver), maybe Douglas County?
When it comes to the west of the Rockies (or not) debate, I'd prefer the 3rd be comprised of all of the counties west of the Rockies since they are a gigantic physical barrier separating those areas from the rest of the state and it makes sense for all those citizens west of that barrier to be a part of the same congressional district (this is assuming population allows this, which it will once Colorado gets its 8th district in 2022).

[Sol]

IMO Pueblo is actually a pretty good fit with the Eastern rurals of Colorado--as folks have said it's a city of the High Plains.

[Devils30]

I would not be shocked if the commission was persuaded by the fact CO is a blue state, draws a 6-2 D map. It would likely be something like CO-8 leaning heavily Dem and CO-3 being like Biden +7 in a seat a more moderate R could win but Boebert would be finished in.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would not be shocked if the commission was persuaded by the fact CO is a blue state, draws a 6-2 D map. It would likely be something like CO-8 leaning heavily Dem and CO-3 being like Biden +7 in a seat a more moderate R could win but Boebert would be finished in.

Easier said than done. No matter what you do, an enormous number of Dem votes will be packed in urban Denver and Boulder--making 6-2 close to impossible to draw.

[Roll Roons]

So how likely is it that Pueblo is still in CO-03? Feel like it's kind of awkward to keep including it there.

[dpmapper]

Jefferson is basically one district.  El Paso is basically one district.  Denver is basically one district.  Boulder + Larimer is basically one district.  Douglas + non-Aurora Arapahoe (Centennial etc.) is basicaly one district.  Why not just use these as the cores of 5 districts and let everything else play out? 

[Stuart98]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

I think I like it better than my previous CO map from a COI standpoint. Partisanship wise, it split 4-4 in President 2020 (and in every election on DRA) but has some silly dummymander potential down the line: the 2nd (Fort Collins/Greeley) was Trump +1.7; the 4th (Douglas plus other conservative Denver suburbs and rurals) was Trump +7.1; the 3rd (Pueblo/Grand Junction) was Trump +12.8; the 5th (Colorado Springs) was Trump +10.9. They should all be safe in 2022, but all of them could conceivably fall in 2026 under a blue wave if the trend line in CO continues.

Obviously Boebert gets absolutely screwed here, unless she carpetbags one county south.

[Sol]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

This map literally does what people were begging the commission not to do and puts a bunch of mountain counties in with the Front Range.

[Oryxslayer]

Preemptive reminder that the map released today, and the legislative map released in a few days, are not final. Aside from the obvious that this is drawn using the ACS data - requiring minor adjustments later - these maps are meant to simply serve as a launching point for discussion. The months between now and the census delivery date intend to be used for public forums and discussion. The commission will then take this input and final census numbers and release a final product in the fall. So, the main things to look for are not the minute cuts and pairings, but rather the overarching vision which is unlikely to change. Districts will see adjustments, but their general location, orientation, and the purpose behind pairing communities to create said constructs are unlikely to change.

[Devils30]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

I think I like it better than my previous CO map from a COI standpoint. Partisanship wise, it split 4-4 in President 2020 (and in every election on DRA) but has some silly dummymander potential down the line: the 2nd (Fort Collins/Greeley) was Trump +1.7; the 4th (Douglas plus other conservative Denver suburbs and rurals) was Trump +7.1; the 3rd (Pueblo/Grand Junction) was Trump +12.8; the 5th (Colorado Springs) was Trump +10.9. They should all be safe in 2022, but all of them could conceivably fall in 2026 under a blue wave if the trend line in CO continues.

Obviously Boebert gets absolutely screwed here, unless she carpetbags one county south.

I don't think 4-4 is that likely, CO is not a swing state anymore.

[Vosem]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

I think I like it better than my previous CO map from a COI standpoint. Partisanship wise, it split 4-4 in President 2020 (and in every election on DRA) but has some silly dummymander potential down the line: the 2nd (Fort Collins/Greeley) was Trump +1.7; the 4th (Douglas plus other conservative Denver suburbs and rurals) was Trump +7.1; the 3rd (Pueblo/Grand Junction) was Trump +12.8; the 5th (Colorado Springs) was Trump +10.9. They should all be safe in 2022, but all of them could conceivably fall in 2026 under a blue wave if the trend line in CO continues.

Obviously Boebert gets absolutely screwed here, unless she carpetbags one county south.

I don't think 4-4 is that likely, CO is not a swing state anymore.

Most of the proposals I've seen resemble dpmapper's map and are about 4D-3R-1S (where S is a suburban Biden/Gardner seat that would very likely vote R in 2022 but is quickly trending left). Colorado actually has some fairly obvious communities of interest that are about the size of a congressional district.

I think putting the ski towns in Boebert's seat makes more sense than Pueblo, but people are overestimating the population of these areas and underestimating the populations of red areas between ski towns. I've seen example maps that do this but still see Boebert's seat move slightly rightwards, and even where it moves left it isn't by much.

Ultimately Boebert's seat just isn't going to change very much in partisanship (though it might in exact boundaries) unless you nuke the map by drawing a pan-south seat (like Stuart98 does), in which case you can give her Boulder or other very left-wing parts of the Front Range.

[Nyvin]

I doubt Boebert's district really changes much partisan-wise, if at all.   The bigger question IMO is where the new CO-8 district ends up.

[Biden his time]

I made a Colorado map.

The Population Deviation is 0.03%, and it reflects 2019 ACS Data.
The map above shows results from the 2018 Colorado Gubernatorial election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Colorado: 4D to 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado: 4D to 4R

2018 Colorado Attorney General Election: 4D to 4R

2018 Colorado Gubernatorial Election: 4D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado (rough estimate): 5D or 6D to 3R or 2R

CO-4 (the pale Republican one close to Denver) probably flipped.
Maybe CO-1 (the large Western district) flipped as well but I'm not so sure.


Opinions?

[Nyvin]

I made a Colorado map.


The Population Deviation is 0.03%, and it reflects 2019 ACS Data.
The map above shows results from the 2018 Colorado Gubernatorial election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Colorado: 4D to 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado: 4D to 4R

2018 Colorado Attorney General Election: 4D to 4R

2018 Colorado Gubernatorial Election: 4D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado (rough estimate): 5D or 6D to 3R or 2R

CO-4 (the pale Republican one close to Denver) probably flipped.
Maybe CO-1 (the large Western district) flipped as well but I'm not so sure.


Opinions?

5 and 7's cuts into Jefferson seem pointless, any real reason for them both?  You can just push 8 more into Douglas and remove 5 and 7 from Jefferson entirely.