Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Calthrina950]

Here is my take on a "Light Dem gerrymander"; basically the kind of redistricting that could happen if the Colorado commission was somehow seized by a coalition of partisan democrats and RINOs, like it has happened in other states?

Basically this is a partisan map that doesn't go too crazy and tries to keep some COIs at least; although I will admit I probably didn't put enough effort into keeping county borders, so this map, while it looks good, looks less great with county borders on.

Interestingly this does give me a chance to show off the "donut" district from another thread.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c04e1eca-ce14-441d-a9ab-304acd12b08f

Districts 1, 2 and 6 should all be safe D (though district 6, at D+4 in PVI might have been competitive in the past, but it certainly isn't now). Similarly, districts 4 and 5 should both be Safe R (though the Colorado Springs district is trending D, but should still be safe R for now)

District 7 may have been competitive in the past as well (D+2 PVI), and even in 2016 it was not a huge blowout (Clinton+7); but I imagine it must have zoomed left very fast. For the 2018 governor election it voted Polis+14 so

District 8 is basically a Lean D district that is still very much competitive. It was Clinton+1, Polis+6 and D+1 in PVI. Not sure what the trend here is, if one even exists.

Finally district 3 is a half hearted attempt at getting rid of Boebert. You can't fully get rid of her without doing a "proper" gerrymander, so this just gives her as many of the Dem rural ski counties as you can, and then fills up the population by taking the rural parts of Boulder and Larimer, instead of the more Republican southeast part of the state. It's still Likely R, but slightly better than the current district. It even voted for Polis by 200 votes (Trump+8, Polis+0, R+5)

I would imagine that Biden carried all of the districts on your map last year except for 4 and 5.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I mananged to create 6 Polis districts by cracking Grand Junction. Overall, this is obviously a very pro dem map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f52747e1-fda6-467f-bb16-814d6d7defc1

[Badger]

I mananged to create 6 Polis districts by cracking Grand Junction. Overall, this is obvously a very pro dem map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f52747e1-fda6-467f-bb16-814d6d7defc1

Nice. If This Were adopted, which district would Lauren bovert land in? Assuming she didn't move or carpet bag ( if the latter is even permitted under Colorado election law).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I mananged to create 6 Polis districts by cracking Grand Junction. Overall, this is obviously a very pro dem map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f52747e1-fda6-467f-bb16-814d6d7defc1

I raise you one better:

7 Polis districts, all of which also went to Hillary Clinton.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/27998970-024a-4d7d-9bbb-1ec4e93f78e8

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GOPmander to see how geographically feasible it was to make a map where Dems are winning less than half of the seats.
It is still quite possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/8a07deda-1e7f-4e56-a9c7-070aa9213a39

[lfromnj]

https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/155780/redistricting-chair-is-an-election-fraud-truther

The chair probably doesn't matter as much here though compared to AZ or NJ.

Iirc the indys are fairly left leaning

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/155780/redistricting-chair-is-an-election-fraud-truther

The chair probably doesn't matter as much here though compared to AZ or NJ.

Iirc the indys are fairly left leaning

The fact that they picked a conspiracy theory-peddling, right-wing nutcase as a Chair suggests that we may well see a Republican gerrymander here.  There's really no excuse for this, regardless of how much power the position does or doesn't have.  It'd be like voting to put someone who believes gravity is an atheist hoax designed to pave the way for the coming of the anti-Christ as chairman of a panel determining whether evolution should be taught in schools. 

The "2020 is rigged" conspiracy theory is so irreconcilable with objective, fact-based reality that anyone who indulges or subscribes to it has effectively forfeited the right to be taken seriously or trusted with any meaningful responsibility.  And if the majority of this panel doesn't feel that way, then that says a lot about them and none of it good.

[Former President tack50]

Per Lfromnj's posts and assuming CO will actually get an R gerry, here is my attempt at one, which ends up as a 4R-4D map, though looking around I think Tim's map is a better option



https://davesredistricting.org/join/12a5acbf-3faa-44df-a020-ab9ce8b7bcb8

CO-01: Polis+60, Clinton+75, D+26
CO-02: Polis+42, Clinton+34, D+16
CO-03: Stapleton+10, Trump+19, R+10
CO-04: Stapleton+17, Trump+20, R+10
CO-05: Stapleton+18, Trump+22, R+13
CO-06: Stapleton+12, Trump+15, R+9
CO-07: Polis+18, Clinton+10, D+3
CO-08: Polis+22, Clinton+17, D+6

I also did a version that is slightly cleaner and changes districts 3 and 7, transforming both into swing districts (Polis+7/Trump+3/R+3 and Polis+3/Trump+4/R+3 respectively); though I imagine the GOP would prefer the version with safe districts, especially given CO's hard trend left

[VAR]

Fair map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e35df00b-e53c-412a-80a1-e22a09851347

[Stuart98]

Fair map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e35df00b-e53c-412a-80a1-e22a09851347

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a combination least-change and proportional map, if DRA is anything to go by.
The new 8th is lean GOP, Trump '16+5, but clearly winnable for Dems in the right circumstances; it might even have voted for Biden.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/17d5c35b-4641-466d-b80d-10fec89b0395

[Stuart98]

https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/155780/redistricting-chair-is-an-election-fraud-truther

The chair probably doesn't matter as much here though compared to AZ or NJ.

Iirc the indys are fairly left leaning

That didn't last long.

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/04/05/danny-moore-congressional-redistricting-commission/

[patzer]

Does anyone think Denver will get a VRA majority minority district? I think it'll need to.

I made a map including such a VRA district, which seems to be 2D-1R-5 swing at first but is probably 7D-1R given the swing of Colorado lately... I can't post it here yet as I don't have enough messages for image posting, but will do later.

A Denver VRA district is something like 43% Hispanic, 38% white, 12% black.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone think Denver will get a VRA majority minority district? I think it'll need to.

I made a map including such a VRA district, which seems to be 2D-1R-5 swing at first but is probably 7D-1R given the swing of Colorado lately... I can't post it here yet as I don't have enough messages for image posting, but will do later.

A Denver VRA district is something like 43% Hispanic, 38% white, 12% black.

Welcome to the forum!
I don't think it's a given Denver gets a majority non-white district, but it's certainly likelier than not.

[lfromnj]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/12/jason-crow-moves-centennial-congressional-redistricting/

Fairly minor news although any district with Aurora will be Safe D but Centennial on the other hand could be placed with Douglas in a swing district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/12/jason-crow-moves-centennial-congressional-redistricting/

Fairly minor news although any district with Aurora will be Safe D but Centennial on the other hand could be placed with Douglas in a swing district.

A district running from Douglas to areas directing bordering Denver is likely to be a fair-fight district. Every congressional map this century in CO has had one of those.

[lfromnj]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/12/jason-crow-moves-centennial-congressional-redistricting/

Fairly minor news although any district with Aurora will be Safe D but Centennial on the other hand could be placed with Douglas in a swing district.

A district running from Douglas to areas directing bordering Denver is likely to be a fair-fight district. Every congressional map this century in CO has had one of those.

Yes and I am guessing Democrats would slightly prefer to have an incumbent already in said district. Its still a fair fight district but I would say incumbency is still worth at least half a point?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/12/jason-crow-moves-centennial-congressional-redistricting/

Fairly minor news although any district with Aurora will be Safe D but Centennial on the other hand could be placed with Douglas in a swing district.

A district running from Douglas to areas directing bordering Denver is likely to be a fair-fight district. Every congressional map this century in CO has had one of those.

Yes and I am guessing Democrats would slightly prefer to have an incumbent already in said district. Its still a fair fight district but I would say incumbency is still worth at least half a point?

Apparently the CW is that the new district will be north of Denver rather than south of it.

[Nyvin]

I'm not seeing why Crow moving "to" Centennial is an indication of anything, usually incumbents make moves to get into safer districts not more competitive ones, especially when literally no one knows what the map will actually look like.  Who knows I guess.

Also, all of Douglas and Arapahoe minus Aurora isn't quite enough for a district.

Splitting Aurora does wonders for the flexibility for the rest of the map though IMO -







https://davesredistricting.org/join/efa12a45-4030-46f4-b9b9-f10ce8a87840

2020 Pres Results (feel free to check my work on this):

CO-1   
79.91%   17.82%
   
CO-2   
55.40%   41.69%
   
CO-3   
55.15%   42.63%
   
CO-4   
36.43%     61.12%
   
CO-5   
42.99%   53.33%
   
CO-6   
59.71%   37.45%
   
CO-7   
58.14%   39.10%
   
CO-8   
56.54%   40.88%

[It’s so Joever]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/12/jason-crow-moves-centennial-congressional-redistricting/

Fairly minor news although any district with Aurora will be Safe D but Centennial on the other hand could be placed with Douglas in a swing district.

A district running from Douglas to areas directing bordering Denver is likely to be a fair-fight district. Every congressional map this century in CO has had one of those.

Depending on which parts of Arapahoe would be absorbed into this district, maybe my vote will matter next election!

[patzer]

Here's my attempt at maximizing competitive districts.
3 safe D, 1 safe R, and 4 swing that could really go either way depending on the year.

I made the new 8th district in the northern Fort Collins/Greeley area; expanded the 4th into Centennial; transferred eastern Colorado to the 6th; and northwestern Colorado to the 2nd.

This is 5R-3D by 2012-18 average (which is what's pictured in the map), but it's 6D-2R by 2018 gubernatorial (and the 4th district was just three points off flipping in the 2018 gubernatorial). Incumbents who've changed districts: Boebert is now in the 2nd, Buck is now in the 8th, Crow is now in the 4th, and I believe everyone else stays in the same place.

[CookieDamage]

Two versions of a 6-2 D to R plan.

A:



B:



I prefer the latter as it confines Colorado Springs to a safe R districts, and the Denver suburb districts are becoming more D anyways.

[lfromnj]

https://gazette.com/colorado_politics/redistricting-commissioners-clash-over-prisoner-reallocation/article_b413575a-c182-11eb-bc65-77fec0bce485.html

Is Danny Moore a dem plant?

Commissioner Moore and Democratic commissioner Lisa Wilkes said the practice of counting prisoners is in some ways reminiscent of American slavery, which commissioner Leone said was an unfair comparison.

[OBD]

Is Danny Moore a dem plant?

Hopefully!

[Stuart98]

Here's my attempt at maximizing competitive districts.
3 safe D, 1 safe R, and 4 swing that could really go either way depending on the year.

I made the new 8th district in the northern Fort Collins/Greeley area; expanded the 4th into Centennial; transferred eastern Colorado to the 6th; and northwestern Colorado to the 2nd.

This is 5R-3D by 2012-18 average (which is what's pictured in the map), but it's 6D-2R by 2018 gubernatorial (and the 4th district was just three points off flipping in the 2018 gubernatorial). Incumbents who've changed districts: Boebert is now in the 2nd, Buck is now in the 8th, Crow is now in the 4th, and I believe everyone else stays in the same place.

Map link? that smells of dummymander in 2020 president.