2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania (user search)
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  2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania  (Read 41586 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: January 11, 2020, 03:19:57 PM »

Related question: How exactly does legislative redistricting work in PA?  I believe there is a commission formed with an equal number of members from both parties that historically always deadlocks and then the PA Supreme Court appoints a tiebreaker?  Historically, the process has resulted in de facto Republican control within certain limitations for at least the last 2 cycles.

The PA Supreme Court is currently 5D/2R and historically quite partisan.  4 of the 5 Dems are not up for retention election until at least 2025, so a Dem majority seems assured for the next redistricting cycle.  Does this mean to expect soft Dem control of the state legislative process after the 2020 census (again, within some significant constitutional limitations, similar to GOP control in FL or NC)?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2020, 12:45:03 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8ce72869-bc09-42d3-bfaf-79098e8d69b4
This is a compromise map.  Each side makes a concession.  The congressional district lost is a Republican one.  In exchange, Lamb's district gets more Republican, still less conservative than the one he originally won in the special election tho.  This map also shores up Perry, Kelly, Wild, and Cartwright.  2 vulnerable incumbents in each party.

It's pretty likely either Cartwright or Perry or even both won't be in Congress in 2021.   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2020, 04:59:54 PM »

well if RBG/Breyer are gone and replaced with Amy Coney Barrett and Roy Moore types, we may see the VRA and Reynolds v Sims/Wesberry v Sanders/Baker v Carr gone entirely. In that cases, welcome to Philadelphia County having one district entirely.

Not possible in PA.  Even if SCOTUS ruled the states can do whatever they want with CDs, Governor Wolf would veto it.  Dems also have de facto control of the 2020's state legislative maps through their control of the State Supreme Court (which is currently 5D/2R and 4 of the Dem seats are locked in through 2025).  If anything, the more likely outcome if equal population is no longer enforced would be Dems forcing through a map that massively overrepresents Philadelphia and Pittsburgh vs. the rest of the state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2020, 03:26:43 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2020, 03:58:15 PM by muon2 »

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

What are you talking about?

Dude every single one of your fair maps are D gerrymanders, stop trying to deny it.

This particular court is overwhelmingly likely to draw a soft D gerrymander (in fact they already did for 2018-20), so it's appropriate for PA specifically.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2020, 03:32:40 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2020, 03:57:13 PM by muon2 »

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

What are you talking about?

Dude every single one of your fair maps are D gerrymanders, stop trying to deny it.

This particular court is overwhelmingly likely to draw a soft D gerrymander (in fact they already did for 2018-20), so it's appropriate for PA specifically.

This is true, to me the biggest question is what they do with PA-01, because you can make it much more D by pairing it with lower Montgomery, but that might be too blatant of a gerrymander.

I'm wondering more about the non-Philly CDs.  It's clear there's enough room in Allegheny to keep Lamb reasonably safe.  Will the Harrisburg seat get more Dem or more GOP?  Is one of Cartwright or Wild stuck with an impossible district no matter what?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2021, 10:28:22 AM »

Former University of Pittsburgh chancellor named the tiebreaker vote for the PA state legislative maps.


So does this mean we get a map in the same spirit as the previous one?

This process only applies for creating the state legislature maps.

And historically, it's always an AZ 2011 situation where the tiebreaker is a de facto partisan and just votes for whatever maps the party with a state supreme court majority at the time proposes.  I would expect just about the most Dem maps possible within the rules the state sets for legislative districts.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2021, 10:16:14 AM »



This panel is effectively 3D/2R because the State Supreme Court (partisan elections, 5D/2R) appoints the tiebreaker, right?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2021, 09:47:29 AM »


I’m not sure cracking Pittsburgh is a good idea. Those districts are like Biden+11 and Biden+14 and may fall in a wave. Better to have a safe seat and a swing or even R-leaning seat.

That doesn't follow what we've seen in states like Nevada or Oregon.   Democrats seem more interested in maxing their ceiling than their floor.

There's absolutely no prospect of Dems holding the House while losing the PV with their current coalition, so they might as well swing for the fences every time. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2022, 02:43:52 PM »

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2022, 08:15:22 PM »

Summer Lee drawn out of PA17:



Remember that Conor Lamb didn't reside within PA-18 as it existed back when he first ran for that seat in early 2018, so this isn't anything unprecedented.

Yeah, this isn't a huge deal.  It becomes more of an issue if they're moving to an entirely different metro area to run in a seat that leans toward their party.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2022, 09:52:02 PM »

Link to the order. No noted dissents. It seems to mostly be a technical reason since it's currently being heard by a three-judge panel. The Court left open the option to appeal any ruling.
Any real chance the map is overturned?

Take a look at the dissent from the NC case. The NC case seemed far more ripe for the taking and the Court turned them down. In that case, there may be at least four votes to hear a case on the merits down the road. It looks like Barrett would likely be the swing vote if such a case were to be heard (as it appears that both she and Roberts joined the three liberals to deny the stay). Roberts likely holds that position because he seems to generally be holding a serious line on stare decisis grounds.

It looks like a virtual certainty that both maps will be used for 2022.

I don't think it's a sure thing Kavanaugh votes for the legislature.  He seems genuinely conflicted and wants to settle the issue.  Barrett is a pleasant surprise for those supporting the state court's authority to intervene. 

Also, note that the main dissent (Gorsuch/Alito/Thomas) focused on how the language in the state constitution cited in the ruling was generic and did not explicitly mention gerrymandering and how the only election-related passage was "All elections shall be free."  That could save redistricting commissions that were explicit state constitutional amendments even in a worst case scenario.

The PA case is much more of a stretch for the legislature and involves a different precedent on veto power. 
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