2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[S019]

Honestly find a way to Chop Cartwright and give the best parts of Lackawanna to Wild while Fitzpatrick takes  the redder parts of the Lehigh Valley so Houlahan can keep more of Chester.  Everyone besides Cartwright should be pretty happy.



Here we go, Cartwright is effectively chopped as Mueser/Wild eat up his district.

Houlahan manages to keep a +5 D composite district while Fitzpatrick's district moves moderately to the right. Wild gets a pretty Safe district at +15 composit although probably only +8 Clinton although double digit Biden.

Dean takes a light hit but its still clearly Safe D even without Lower Merion.

This is a hideous map, as are several of the maps being posted in this thread

[S019]

Here is my 10 R - 7 D map based on the 2012-2016 pres results. I really hope DRA adds the 2016 and 2018 elections on there and soon the 2020 election results for PA.

Districtr has 2016 results, so if you want 2016 results for your map, just redraw it there, it is a pain, but it works

[S019]

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

What are you talking about?

Dude every single one of your fair maps are D gerrymanders, stop trying to deny it.

A gerrymander would actually unpack the Philadelphia suburbs, and also, if you want a D gerrymander, Beaver+Pittsburgh, works far better than SWPA+Pittsburgh, and also if it is allowed (probably is), the majority minority seat in North Philadelphia would be eliminated, freeing up lots of blue precincts. Also IdahoConservative posts Republican gerrymanders and calls them fair maps in threads, but no one complains there. Anyways, splitting Berks is needed, because of the way SEPA works out, but I like Sev's second map far more. One last thing, a D gerrymander would pair Abington and the surrounding areas with Bucks as that gets the seat to around Clinton+7 without ugly lines.

[S019]

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

What are you talking about?

Dude every single one of your fair maps are D gerrymanders, stop trying to deny it.

This particular court is overwhelmingly likely to draw a soft D gerrymander (in fact they already did for 2018-20), so it's appropriate for PA specifically.

This is true, to me the biggest question is what they do with PA-01, because you can make it much more D by pairing it with lower Montgomery, but that might be too blatant of a gerrymander.

[S019]

Have you ever actually made a fair map in good faith?

What are you talking about?

Dude every single one of your fair maps are D gerrymanders, stop trying to deny it.

This particular court is overwhelmingly likely to draw a soft D gerrymander (in fact they already did for 2018-20), so it's appropriate for PA specifically.

This is true, to me the biggest question is what they do with PA-01, because you can make it much more D by pairing it with lower Montgomery, but that might be too blatant of a gerrymander.

One incumbent protection option is to make PA-01 redder by giving PA-07 a tendril into the most Dem areas of Bucks county while giving PA-01 Republican areas of PA-07.  Its ugly, but it would protect both incumbents.

Splitting Bucks is a no, Bucks has stayed whole since like the 1950's, if not earlier, iirc

[S019]

Made some modest changes to 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17.

Other than the tri cut of Berks, I actually really like this map, I might also consider having 14 drop that little bit of Allegheny, so it is only split twice, as for SEPA, even the D court will probably extend the 4th into Chester, which will leave Houlahan with a tough seat (by forcing her to take almost all of Bucks), but given Chester's trend, it should be one that Democrats get back before 2026 or so (hypothetical seat would be Trump+3 in 2016 and may have actually voted for Biden this year). Also pairing Bucks with lower Montgomery is a good decision and one that I hope that the court ends up making.

[S019]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

Why is tiny Schuylkill being split, Lackawanna+Luzerne belong together, how do we have a seat going from Scranton to Williamsport? Also a tri cut of Chester is not needed, just extend the DelCo seat into Chester and pair the rest with Berks.

[S019]

Since everybody is in on it I guess I'll post my map. I tried putting Chesco with Delco since they're so similar demographically instead Lancaster or Berks (which just aren't similar to Chesco in any way). It actually works out really well and places together similar areas such as eastern Delco+West Philly (creates a second AA seat), NE Philly+Lower Bucks, Montco/Central Bucks, and Upper Bucks/Montco+Berks. There's an inevitable GOP tilt, but CDs 4/10/17 look like they'll be competitive

I have 2020 numbers but I'll save that for later

Bucks will not be cut, it has been left whole since like the 1950's, and a court drawn map is not splitting it and in a bipartisan map, the GOP will want it whole because Fitzpatrick lives in the heavily Democratic southern part of the county, if he lived in the north, then maybe it would happen, but him living in the South guarantees that it won't. This map double bunks him and Boyle and that would lead to loud protest from the GOP and the court would not split Bucks, especially not to pair it with Philadelphia, and eliminate a minority access seat.

[S019]

Bucks will not be cut, it has been left whole since like the 1950's, and a court drawn map is not splitting it and in a bipartisan map, the GOP will want it whole because Fitzpatrick lives in the heavily Democratic southern part of the county, if he lived in the north, then maybe it would happen, but him living in the South guarantees that it won't. This map double bunks him and Boyle and that would lead to loud protest from the GOP and the court would not split Bucks, especially not to pair it with Philadelphia, and eliminate a minority access seat.

honestly don’t care about incumbency; my map is exploring a fair map without conditions. also, it becomes harder and harder to preserve the same configurations as a state continues to bleed seats. bucks county is not an inherent COI. also, i didn’t remove a minority access seat lol? the map has two majority AA seats

This map isn't fair though, cutting Berks three ways is a nonstarter, and Delaware can and should be kept whole. A CD connecting Reading with Berks should just not happen, they have little in common.

[S019]

Bucks will not be cut, it has been left whole since like the 1950's, and a court drawn map is not splitting it and in a bipartisan map, the GOP will want it whole because Fitzpatrick lives in the heavily Democratic southern part of the county, if he lived in the north, then maybe it would happen, but him living in the South guarantees that it won't. This map double bunks him and Boyle and that would lead to loud protest from the GOP and the court would not split Bucks, especially not to pair it with Philadelphia, and eliminate a minority access seat.

honestly don’t care about incumbency; my map is exploring a fair map without conditions. also, it becomes harder and harder to preserve the same configurations as a state continues to bleed seats. bucks county is not an inherent COI. also, i didn’t remove a minority access seat lol? the map has two majority AA seats

This map isn't fair though, cutting Berks three ways is a nonstarter, and Delaware can and should be kept whole. A CD connecting Reading with Berks should just not happen, they have little in common.

Think you mean Bucks, but I promise you Delco is not a COI, what do Darby and Newtown have in common at all. Same for Levittown and Buckingham in Bucks County. Treating highly populous counties as monolithic is a bit reductive. I'd also say a CD connecting Reading with Chesco just shouldn't happen, because they have little in common

Yeah but cutting Bucks is one of those things that just never happens, even the ugly GOP gerrymander of 2010 left Bucks intact. Also there are ways to split Chester into north and South, without cutting Bucks three ways.

Following cvparty's lead, a pretty different map that takes a lot of cues from older lines over previous decades (including reverting back to the old numbering). I especially like the arrangement of the 5th and 17th as a fix for the sprawling 12th on the existing map. The partisan breakdown is also pretty fair with the exception of Hillary's uniquely inefficient coalition.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/20f70c49-f319-4f12-95bf-2efeeaf31c85

Tri cuts of Chester just should not happen, cut Chester twice, either east-west or north-south and forcing cuts on small counties like Schuylkill is not ideal. I like how you handled SWPA though. Also I would personally move Wild into East Stroudsburg, and give Carbon to the 8th, but that is more personal preference.

[S019]

I guess I'll post my map, too, it's a hypothetical Democratic leaning court map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4b0ab8e8-c4ac-4306-9eea-a120807c3a47

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c5ab2031-c4f9-465b-8425-c5aa514a4fff

I tried a PA map following 2020 data being released, and I'm quite happy with it, made some D leaning decisions, and surprisingly was able to keep Lamb's district winnable for a future Democratic candidate (probably not 2022 though). Also population growth in one or both of Chester and Berks means that the 6th can take a lot less of Berks than expected pre-release, which helps Democrats there. The most partisan decision here is probably to reach across Southern Montgomery to grab deep blue towns and bring Fitz's seat to Clinton+5, given Biden's sizable gains in Bucks County, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a Biden+double digits seat. Overall it's a 9-8 R map on 2016 data, but the 16th (Trump+2), 7th (Clinton+1), 1st (Clinton+5), and 6th (Clinton+5) are all very competitive seats, maybe not the 6th given the large Democratic shift in Chester County in 2020, but the rest should all be competitive. Also Cartwright took a big hit and moved to Trump+13, but not much to do to save him honestly, Democrats would benefit if he was cut loose, as it makes the map come together well, and saving Wild is just far more easier.

[S019]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Not even pretending that you want fair maps anymore, huh?

Note that someone like him would be considered an "independent" on the redistricting commissions proposed by the For the People Act.

I would gladly take independent commissions in every state, but as long as Republicans gerrymander, Democrats should not unilaterally disarm.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1468673221721563148
Interesting seems like its possible PA gets a map .

Street is also running for Senate and is the Vice Chair of the state party, so I expect that Democrats will have extracted significant concessions here. Perhaps a deal to make all incumbents safe (except Cartwright, b/c one of him or Wild basically need to go realistically) has been reached?

[S019]

Oh my god, what is that?