2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Also it should be mentioned that one of the concrete parts of the rumor was that SWPA would be drawn to clean up what currently exists. Doyle, recognizing that his home was in a weird spot, would retire. This allows for a pure Pittsburgh+South Allegheny seat, which would be a 'gift' (to use the terms of my insider) to Lamb if he decides to stay at the congressional level. Then the present North Allegheny seat would be both open and pushed towards the center using the AA communities to the west of the city. It would essentially be drawn as a fair fight style seat. Butler of course is not going anywhere since that is Kelly's base - he actually wants the entire county reunified.

Something like what is shown below, but this is just my guess. Map just happens to be colored by 2018 Senate election.

Not a great deal, unless it is traded for a concession somewhere else.  Even Wolf's proposed map was better than this. https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-wolf-submits-a-fairer-congressional-map-to-supreme-court/wolf-proposal/

Lamb's district on Oryx's map is still about R+2 PVI. For the Pennsylvania GOP, given the option, a bipartisan incumbent protection plan with the Dems that keep all the D seats safe and give all the R congressmen their own districts is better than a map drawn by the Dem controlled court which won't give any consideration to giving incumbent's their own districts while still drawing lines that increase competitive seats and generally lean Dem.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Also it should be mentioned that one of the concrete parts of the rumor was that SWPA would be drawn to clean up what currently exists. Doyle, recognizing that his home was in a weird spot, would retire. This allows for a pure Pittsburgh+South Allegheny seat, which would be a 'gift' (to use the terms of my insider) to Lamb if he decides to stay at the congressional level. Then the present North Allegheny seat would be both open and pushed towards the center using the AA communities to the west of the city. It would essentially be drawn as a fair fight style seat. Butler of course is not going anywhere since that is Kelly's base - he actually wants the entire county reunified.

Something like what is shown below, but this is just my guess. Map just happens to be colored by 2018 Senate election.

Not a great deal, unless it is traded for a concession somewhere else.  Even Wolf's proposed map was better than this. https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-wolf-submits-a-fairer-congressional-map-to-supreme-court/wolf-proposal/

Lamb's district on Oryx's map is still about R+2 PVI. For the Pennsylvania GOP, given the option, a bipartisan incumbent protection plan with the Dems that keep all the D seats safe and give all the R congressmen their own districts is better than a map drawn by the Dem controlled court which won't give any consideration to giving incumbent's their own districts while still drawing lines that increase competitive seats and generally lean Dem.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a392b108-d3f2-4ebd-b906-69038eabd1f3
here's a better map, literally based off of a map Wolf supported https://www.governor.pa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/wolf-proposal.jpg  

And why exactly would the GOP agree to a map that draws 7/9 GOP congressmen out of their seats (all but Joyce and Perry)?
Oryx's map is what you'd expect of a compromise in the SW. Lamb gets a safe Dem seat, a vacant fair fight Tossup district is drawn, Mike Kelly gets a Safe Seat including his base in Butler, and Reschenthaler gets a Safe Seat with his base in Washington and Westmoreland.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Let's try to keep these at least somewhat realistic.  Pittsburgh isn't getting split 3 ways, neither party wants that.  Also no tendril districts are getting drawn to the benefit of either party.  Sure, one party may get a map that is a bit more favorable to them, like how the current map slightly favors Dems, but there won't be an extreme gerrymander.

The above map was drawn with the specific framing of if by some miracle the Dems gain the General Assembly. If they did then a map like that would be exactly what would be drawn.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Following cvparty's lead, a pretty different map that takes a lot of cues from older lines over previous decades (including reverting back to the old numbering). I especially like the arrangement of the 5th and 17th as a fix for the sprawling 12th on the existing map. The partisan breakdown is also pretty fair with the exception of Hillary's uniquely inefficient coalition.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/20f70c49-f319-4f12-95bf-2efeeaf31c85