2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This map might actually be something like what we end up with.

Nah, Wolf should (and presumably would) veto that. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This map might actually be something like what we end up with.

Nah, Wolf should (and presumably would) veto that.  

It's pretty fair, losing a district just happens to really hurt Dems.

Not our problem what a "fair" map would look like.  Wolf should veto any map that isn't at least a mild Democratic gerrymander.  We have the PA Supreme Court, so if it gets punted to them, we can just draw whatever map we want

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I turned the western CD's counterclockwise to get rid of a chop of Beaver County to the west of Pittsburgh. So my map above has been changed a tiny tad. Below is the existing map.

 

I think Wolff would be hard pressed to veto a map that eliminates a Pub CD, and hews to good redistricting principles, without savaging a Dem incumbent.

A map that does savage a Dem incumbent is this one:



As I told the boys at RRH who disliked what I did by not putting Schuylkill with the northern part of Chester, it is a thought crime to combine the richest bit of PA with a rural fossil fuel rust belt county, and the howls would drown out everything else. Less is more, even for Pubs sometimes.

I mean, what does Wolf have to lose by playing hardball?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Other than Wolf's reputation, if the Pubs draw a reasonable map, that can defended on its merits aside from the partisan implications at the margins arising from hewing to such principles, even though the Court is Dem controlled, it might be that a court that takes an oath to just follow the law, and not be partisan hacks, just maybe will not go for something that is clearly a Dem gerrymander. And it is not clear to me that it will end up in state rather than federal court in the context of a deadlock. In NY, with a deadlock, it ended up in federal court, which drew the lines. So there are risks associated with going for the max.

Fortune favors the bold

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like a perfect court map to me

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh so now you care about partisan equity?

Where was that in CA?

Someone’s salty about it being possible to draw a very realistic PA map that isn’t a natural Republican gerrymander

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes because now seperating Pittsburgh from its inner ring suburbs is fair.

Just keep showing everyone how you make "fair" maps.

PA won't have a fair map though.  It'll have a D-leaning courtmander.  I see nothing unrealistic about separating Pittsburgh from it's suburbs, although I can see why Republicans wouldn't like that

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes because now seperating Pittsburgh from its inner ring suburbs is fair.

Just keep showing everyone how you make "fair" maps.

PA won't have a fair map though.  It'll have a D-leaning courtmander.  I see nothing unrealistic about separating Pittsburgh from it's suburbs, although I can see why Republicans wouldn't like that

Its pretty clear lfromnj will say anything at any time so long as it happens to benefit the republican party at that moment.

I think that’s a bit too harsh tbh.  I think the possibility of Allegheny being split like that probably just caught him a bit off-guard.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

D gerrymander Lfromnj keeps asking for.

We should be so lucky, but I doubt the court goes for that Lancaster district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given the big discussion, here is my attempt at a fair map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d1ee3bc5-f0df-4366-a9dc-e796ce5a6ac1

PA-01: Clinton+1, R+1
PA-02: Clinton+64, D+32 (41% black, 32% white, 22% hispanic)
PA-03: Clinton+80, D+39 (55% black)
PA-04: Clinton+23, D+8
PA-05: Clinton+17, D+6
PA-06: Trump+5, R+3
PA-07: Clinton+0, EVEN
PA-08: Trump+12, R+2
PA-09: Trump+16, R+8
PA-10: Trump+43, R+19
PA-11: Trump+19, R+11
PA-12: Trump+10, R+7
PA-13: Trump+45, R+22
PA-14: Trump+31, R+14
PA-15: Trump+35, R+16
PA-16: Trump+22, R+9
PA-17: Clinton+29, D+14

In theory this should be a map with 5 Titanium D districts, 6 titanium R districts, 3 tossups and 2 districts that are heavily R but are as of now held by Dems (you could consider those R districts, Trump did win by double digits after all).

Overall, a 5D-8R-3S map. Not the fairest thing in terms of party numbers, but as in many other states geography goes against Dems here, who are concentrated to a large degree in supermajority dem districts in Philadelphia.

And as when doing a fair map, here is my attempt at identifying the COI represented:

PA-01: Bucks & North Philadelphia
PA-02: Central Philadelphia
PA-03: South Philadelphia, Philadelphia black VRA district
PA-04: Montgomery County
PA-05: Delaware County & East Chester County
PA-06: Berks & West Chester County
PA-07: Allentown area
PA-08: Scranton & Wilkes-Barre area / Northwest PA
PA-09: Harrisburg
PA-10: North central rural PA
PA-11: Lancaster & East York (tried to have York city in this district, but many suburbs had to be left out unfortunately)
PA-12: West Pittsburgh suburbs and Beaver County
PA-13: South central rural PA
PA-14: Southwest PA
PA-15: North Central Rural PA (but to the west of PA-10)
PA-16: Erie area & Northwest PA
PA-17: Pittsburgh & East Pittsburgh suburbs

Boo!  Also, this is like drawing a fair map for Wisconsin.  It's a fun exercise, but that's not what is going to happen.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Two questions:

1) Why do folks seem to be assuming that Lamb's district won't be made more Democratic by giving it some more Democratic territory in Allegheny County while adding some more Republican turf (ex: taking parts of northern Alleghany County and/or some of southern Butler County) to Doyle's district?  I mean, yes, that'd be something you'd see in a Democratic map, but it's not so unreasonable that it'd be likely to give pause Democratic-leaning court.  I'd argue this is more likely than Lamb's district gaining southern Butler County (assuming it doesn't cause too many issues elsewhere in the map).  When in doubt, the PA SC's map is gonna favor the Democrats and this seems like a perfect example of somewhere that could happen.

2) Does anyone know why the "don't split Bucks County" rule has persisted for so long?  I'm not saying I expect it to change; I'm just curious.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Two questions:

1) Why do folks seem to be assuming that Lamb's district won't be made more Democratic by giving it some more Democratic territory in Allegheny County while adding some more Republican turf (ex: taking parts of northern Alleghany County and/or some of southern Butler County) to Doyle's district?  I mean, yes, that'd be something you'd see in a Democratic map, but it's not so unreasonable that it'd be likely to give pause Democratic-leaning court.  I'd argue this is more likely than Lamb's district gaining southern Butler County (assuming it doesn't cause too many issues elsewhere in the map).  When in doubt, the PA SC's map is gonna favor the Democrats and this seems like a perfect example of somewhere that could happen.

2) Does anyone know why the "don't split Bucks County" rule has persisted for so long?  I'm not saying I expect it to change; I'm just curious.

Wouldn't it be more efficient to give Lamb all the Dem turf directly east of Pittsburgh, remove Butler, and turn his district into a Beaver+all of Allegheny as needed, and then give Doyle parts of Washington County instead?

That’d also work and just underscores my point about how easy it is to shore up Lamb.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Former University of Pittsburgh chancellor named the tiebreaker vote for the PA state legislative maps.

https://twitter.com/SamDunklau/status/1389303502137081858?s=20

So does this mean we get a map in the same spirit as the previous one?

This process only applies for creating the state legislature maps.

And historically, it's always an AZ 2011 situation where the tiebreaker is a de facto partisan and just votes for whatever maps the party with a state supreme court majority at the time proposes.  I would expect just about the most Dem maps possible within the rules the state sets for legislative districts.

Yeah, the tiebreaker here was a member of Tom Wolf’s transition team

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Street is a DINO piece of sh!t just like his pond scum uncle

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609

Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

Why should we compromise when we control the State Supreme Court?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I believe the GOP congressman for Western PA, Mike Kelly, is from Butler so I doubt they would draw him out of his district. I was able to make two Dem districts in the Pittsburgh area through Beaver, parts of Washington including the city of Washington, the geographical Northwestern half of Allegheny then stretching into the Black eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Mt. Lebanon and all of Southern Allegheny would be in the Pittsburgh seat in this scenario.

If Democrats are proposing maps to the courts, I don't think they should be trying especially hard to protect Mike Kelly.

I drew the Washington County district the way I did for compactness reasons (in order to make it more appealing to the courts).

That's true, but Kelly's district remaining intact allows for least change to be argued. Even a Dem leaning court will show some deference to Republican incumbent legislators. All of these people know each other and won't want to anger a colleague even on the other side of the aisle.

Ehh, Mike Kelly is the sorta guy whom Dems wouldn’t give a second thought to screwing over in general.  He’s a lowkey racist (at best) ultra-Trumpy backbencher with several scandals from one of the less politically influential parts of the state who lacks the ability to do much for anyone even if the House flips.  I also don’t get the sense that he’s particularly well-liked.

The thing that will likely save him is that something very similar to his current district pretty much draws itself on most maps, regardless of whom said map is intended to benefit.