2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Torie]

After listening to a fair amount of oral argument, I am persuaded that the court should go for a least change map. The maps submitted are all legal, and that is what a court should do when there is deadlock. As part of the change, the following order of priority should be maintained:  reducing splits and their size, keeping existing splits, hewing to metro areas, maintaining partisan balance, and finally reducing erosity, in that order of priority more or less (thus, e.g., losing the split of Penn Hills, but keeping it in the suburban Pittsburgh area CD rather than moving it to the city CD, which is what reducing erosity and keeping the black population together would otherwise suggest). I think the map below accomplishes the above very well. Which of the map options before the court comes closest to this map? I find neither the legal case nor how to draw that map that problematical it turns out. The map kind of drew itself almost. I should have tried to get someone to submit it.  

It will be interesting to see how hack the court is. While a couple of the justices sounded hack (one in particular, that woman who said it is better to split Pittsburg than Washington County, ignoring that if not Washington County, another county would have to be split, get a grip honey)), I don’t think I heard as many as four different voices on the court as hack. PA does not equal NC it seems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/95acf932-1aae-478d-8806-5d8f11125c9a

[ProgressiveModerate]

I like Torie's map; if I were on the court I'd def push for smtg like that.

All the maps submitted have at least 1 weird thing about them that I (and much of atlas) struggle to get over, namely how Pittsburg and Harrisburg are handeled.

However, I think that map has 18 districts

[Brittain33]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

[Torie]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad!  


Time to take Roby for his walk. I am pleased to report that he seems to have recovered from a severe case of diarrhea  that has lasted 4 days. He finally started eating his white rice (the bland diet regime) at 2 am last night, and finally slept comfortably. If he had not, he was going to the emergency clinic this morning. It is quite a relief actually. And it all happened while Dan is being feted in Hawaii at an art opening of his work at the university there.

[lfromnj]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

[lfromnj]

I like Torie's map; if I were on the court I'd def push for smtg like that.

All the maps submitted have at least 1 weird thing about them that I (and much of atlas) struggle to get over, namely how Pittsburg and Harrisburg are handeled.

However, I think that map has 18 districts

Any mao over Harrisburg will be struggled. SCPA is 3 COIs( york/ adams , Harrisburg and Eastern Cumberland and arguably Lebanon county) and lastly Lancaster County but this is only like 2.3 districts worth of population)

All the GOP maps around Pittsburgh are fine but all of them do something funky with Scranton. If they want a red Scranton seat then Wild has to get Monroe County. They shouldn't get to make both a lot more red. 

[Torie]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

Yeah, I see the BS about splitting Pittsburgh, as if a split of 100,000 is the same as a split of 1,000 (if 4 justices buy that, I am sending them to hack hell, which is already way overpopulated with state high court judges), and Harrisburg will need to get more Pub.

[lfromnj]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

Yeah, I see the BS about splitting Pittsburgh, as if a split of 100,000 is the same as a split of 1,000 (if 4 justices buy that, I am sending them to hack hell, which is already way overpopulated with state high court judges), and Harrisburg will need to get more Pub.

Look at the previous page. It seems they will keep Pittsburgh whole but instead attach a lot of icky pub voters to it like all of Westmoreland county.

[OBD]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

Yeah, I see the BS about splitting Pittsburgh, as if a split of 100,000 is the same as a split of 1,000 (if 4 justices buy that, I am sending them to hack hell, which is already way overpopulated with state high court judges), and Harrisburg will need to get more Pub.

Look at the previous page. It seems they will keep Pittsburgh whole but instead attach a lot of icky pub voters to it like all of Westmoreland county.

I would use the Utah logic here. Every district should have a nice blend of urban and rural voters, which is why the city of Pittsburgh should be placed with Washington or Westmoreland counties. The resulting Allegheny County seat is only a fair result from this logic.

[Torie]

OK, here is a map with the number of CD’s the census bureau thinks is correct. What map is closest to this effort from the oracle up on Mt. Olympus? I still think this is the only way to do a good faith least change map, following my metrics (see above), and allegedly the court regarding chops, assuming there are not 4 Dem hacks who ignore the size of the chops to boost the Dems. I am pleased and amused that the size of the requisite muni chop in Alleghany County would be 62 people. Take that queen justice hack!  

 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f98065c8-c133-4483-86bb-2ffd314b13c6





And 88.165% of the population is in the same district, which is not the theoretical maximum but close it it. I wonder what the percentage was for the least change Carter map that was submitted.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1496518313500889094?s=20&t=iaOuZw...

DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2d737ae-ab94-4842-a465-e3f331508082

[Roll Roons]

Good. The other one was an abomination.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nice! Carter was def one of the best options

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice map! Thank you PA Supremes.

[Oryxslayer]

New filing schedule.

[OBD]

RIP Wild (and Cartwright), but at least Houlahan is saved and we still have a shot at the Lamb seat long term.

[Gass3268]

That 12/17 split is very good for Democrats, puts almost all of the immediate Pittsburgh suburbs in the 17th.

[Lambsbread]

This map seems fine. Keller and Glenn Thompson end up sharing a district, Wild's district gets a little more favorable for Rs, Cartwright and Lamb's districts are slightly more D favorable, no real significant change elsewhere. Pretty decent result for Dems. Pittsburgh and Harrisburg avoid being split as well.

[lfromnj]

What was the split anyway  by the court.

[Roll Roons]

What was the split anyway ?

9-8 Biden, though the Scranton and Harrisburg seats only went narrowly to Trump.

[lfromnj]

What was the split anyway ?

9-8 Biden, though the Scranton and Harrisburg seats only went narrowly to Trump.

I meant the split for the court vote.

[Oryxslayer]

What was the split anyway ?

9-8 Biden, though the Scranton and Harrisburg seats only went narrowly to Trump.

I meant the split for the court vote.

4-3 decision. Justices Todd, Mundy, and Brobson dissent. I believe one of the dems wanted a different plan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good choice. The only drawing choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

And besides, there might be some upside in keeping PA-8 competitive. It's still a winnable seat for Dems even if it's obviously an uphill battle.

[Sol]

SWPA is very unfortunate.

[Roll Roons]

And for the record, Fitzpatrick is totally safe. The other map egregiously cracked Bucks and even someone as strong as him would have been in a tough spot.