2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Mr.Phips]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

[Mr.Phips]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

You can see on the map in this article.  She is in district 44 I believe.

[Boss_Rahm]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

Muth is still in the 44th district, which moved to the left. But apparently you now live in the 24th district, which was Republican-leaning previously but moved to the right.

[wbrocks67]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

Muth is still in the 44th district, which moved to the left. But apparently you now live in the 24th district, which was Republican-leaning previously but moved to the right.

That's what I'm saying - I think the lines being drawn for this are pretty terrible if somehow Muth is going from a R+2 district to an R+11 district despite the fact that Montco and many areas inside (especially in my area that is included in this new district) are trending left.

[Mr.Phips]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

Muth is still in the 44th district, which moved to the left. But apparently you now live in the 24th district, which was Republican-leaning previously but moved to the right.

That's what I'm saying - I think the lines being drawn for this are pretty terrible if somehow Muth is going from a R+2 district to an R+11 district despite the fact that Montco and many areas inside (especially in my area that is included in this new district) are trending left.

Muth will almost certainly run in the 44th.

[lfromnj]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

No clearly both are gerrymanders.

The house map splits up State college to give Dems 2 Safe districts there along with Lancaster for example. The state senate does similar stuff with Lancaster.

The house map then creates 4 "trump districts" in Luzerne in order to save the Dem incumbents there and spread out the Shapiro vote rather than creating 1 Biden seat in Wilkes Barres and spreading out the rest.

[Mr.Phips]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

No clearly both are gerrymanders.

The house map splits up State college to give Dems 2 Safe districts there along with Lancaster for example. The state senate does similar stuff with Lancaster.

The house map then creates 4 "trump districts" in Luzerne in order to save the Dem incumbents there and spread out the Shapiro vote rather than creating 1 Biden seat in Wilkes Barres and spreading out the rest.

Is there currently a Biden won seat in Wilkes Barre?

[Horus]

PA house definitely looks like a Dem gerry, but a very smooth one. Lancaster, State College and Reading all gain a lean/solid D seat and Harrisburg gains two.

[lfromnj]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

No clearly both are gerrymanders.

The house map splits up State college to give Dems 2 Safe districts there along with Lancaster for example. The state senate does similar stuff with Lancaster.

The house map then creates 4 "trump districts" in Luzerne in order to save the Dem incumbents there and spread out the Shapiro vote rather than creating 1 Biden seat in Wilkes Barres and spreading out the rest.

Is there currently a Biden won seat in Wilkes Barre?

Yes one Biden +4 seat

[sting in the rafters]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

Yoooo brotherman you and I are in the same district (live in Philly but registered at my mom's bc my vote actually matters here)? That's crisazy. Yeah the swing here is real, lots of culturally liberal voters in NE Chesco who are worried ab environmental conservation. Also as I'm sure you know hella younger heads moving around the way to start families and whatnot. Problem is you know those Amish voters out towards Honey Brook are gonna be fired up for Rs next fall, Muth's district's gonna be a real marginal.  Imo a fair district woulda paired us w/the established growth east of 202.

[Not Me, Us]

State House map might actually put me in a blue seat, which would be absolutely amazing and will therefore not happen.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Revised shot at a State Senate map, after spending far too long trying to squeeze out things in the Lehigh Valley with how poorly these district sizes work there (my NY Senate map is also in development hell 'cause the Capital Region is a nightmare for similar reasons):



Trump '16: 26/50
Shapiro '16: 23/50
Casey '18 and Shapiro '20: 31/50
Wolf '18: 34/50
Biden '20: 27/50

[Boss_Rahm]

Revised shot at a State Senate map, after spending far too long trying to squeeze out things in the Lehigh Valley with how poorly these district sizes work there (my NY Senate map is also in development hell 'cause the Capital Region is a nightmare for similar reasons):



Trump '16: 26/50
Shapiro '16: 23/50
Casey '18 and Shapiro '20: 31/50
Wolf '18: 34/50
Biden '20: 27/50

Are the Philly-area districts underpopulated?

[wbrocks67]

PA house definitely looks like a Dem gerry, but a very smooth one. Lancaster, State College and Reading all gain a lean/solid D seat and Harrisburg gains two.

PA house map is literally 102-101 Biden-Trump. That ain't a gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

Splitting the core Wilkes Barres area in 4 districts to create 4 Shapiro/ Dem downballot seats totally isn't a gerrymander. Instead to compensate for the lack of a Biden seat here they chopped the core of state college. PA legislative redistricting is pretty sad because a map could naturally end up at 26 state senate Biden seats while a house map would probably still be a Trump majority. Instead its reversed and its literally the worst of all worlds.

Also the way they designed Harrisburg is bad. There should be 4 Biden seats but instead there are only 3 but all 3 are Safe D.

[Oryxslayer]

GOP House passes their own congressional map. Despite all the twists and turns, we are still on track for the veto into court-appointed master that was the expectation going in.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1481686726770839552

This Luzerne ancestrmander might fall quickly.

[ctherainbow]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1481686726770839552
This Luzerne ancestrmander might fall quickly.

Not sure I’d read a ton into his retirement as relating to the other Luzerne districts; his is by far the reddest of the competitive Luzerne HDs.  But maybe you’re right, we’ll have to see.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1481795943079063555

Procedural although perhaps increases the chances Democrats come to to the table on a compromise map

[Oryxslayer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1481795943079063555

Procedural although perhaps increases the chances Democrats come to to the table on a compromise map

Also important to note this is a separate legal case that began last year - not the extraordinary circumstance that is expected to arise. There will almost certainly be a legislative impasse, making the supreme court automatically the backstop.

[GALeftist]

Is Wolf the obstacle to a compromise map or is it the PA legislature?

[Boss_Rahm]

Is Wolf the obstacle to a compromise map or is it the PA legislature?

The House and Senate have been working on maps separately up until now, so even if Wolf wanted to negotiate the legislature hasn't agreed on a proposal. But Wolf clearly has no intention of negotiating either, beyond releasing "redistricting principles" that he wants the legislature to follow. It's all theater until the court steps in.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1481852211416256512?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the Supreme Court will be the blockade either way. It's going to them with a special master, just like 2018