2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

Did Ryan Costello draw this map?

Even if he didn't, it'd look like he did.

Nope, PA06 is actually *slightly Dem friendly at a microlevel because PA05 takes in West Chester county. PA06 going into Lebanon doesn't really matter because most other maps would have it taking in similarly red areas in Berks instead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did Ryan Costello draw this map?

Even if he didn't, it'd look like he did.

Nope, PA06 is actually *slightly Dem friendly at a microlevel because PA05 takes in West Chester county. PA06 going into Lebanon doesn't really matter because most other maps would have it taking in similarly red areas in Berks instead.

PA-06 under these lines still sort of resembles his seat back in the old GOPmander from the early 2010s though.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wfmz.com/news/insideyourtown/amanda-holt-of-upper-macungie-appointed-lehigh-county-commissioner/article_c3b45438-9447-5022-9cf2-46b22cf85a31.html

Never mind she does seem to be a Republican but suing your own parties maps to make them fair is a very bold move.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1468673221721563148

Interesting seems like its possible PA gets a map .

[It’s so Joever]

Lol the GOPers failed at making a good mander. You could draw something prettier that is more of a mander.

[Oryxslayer]

Lol the GOPers failed at making a good mander. You could draw something prettier that is more of a mander.

I think its more the case they want to claim some bit of the high ground in preparation for the court fight. This map isn't expected to be passed and therefore doesn't reflect incumbent or partisan concerns, it instead is a friendly map from a favorable 2018 plaintiff. The goal is to show they are listening to concerns previously expressed and are somewhat 'reasonable.'

[S019]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1468673221721563148
Interesting seems like its possible PA gets a map .

Street is also running for Senate and is the Vice Chair of the state party, so I expect that Democrats will have extracted significant concessions here. Perhaps a deal to make all incumbents safe (except Cartwright, b/c one of him or Wild basically need to go realistically) has been reached?

[ctherainbow]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1468673221721563148
Interesting seems like its possible PA gets a map .

Street is also running for Senate and is the Vice Chair of the state party, so I expect that Democrats will have extracted significant concessions here. Perhaps a deal to make all incumbents safe (except Cartwright, b/c one of him or Wild basically need to go realistically) has been reached?

You didn't hear it from me, but there's a good chance that he's going to be Chair before the primary next year.  Nancy Mills is under extreme pressure from the county chairs to resign or face a vote of no confidence.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I don't think Amanda's Holt map is an intentional GOP gerrymander, I think it's more a consequence of geography and a few lucky decisions that benefited the GOP.

Gotta say though for someone who is very against gerrymandering and was disgusted by dirty districts, a lot of her districts are rough around the edges, though not really with partisan intention.

It's not that these maps are unfair, moreso they're just bad, but could be an interesting starting point.

[Boss_Rahm]

Yeah I don't think Amanda's Holt map is an intentional GOP gerrymander, I think it's more a consequence of geography and a few lucky decisions that benefited the GOP.

Gotta say though for someone who is very against gerrymandering and was disgusted by dirty districts, a lot of her districts are rough around the edges, though not really with partisan intention.

It's not that these maps are unfair, moreso they're just bad, but could be an interesting starting point.

Nope, it's intentional. There's no reason to put Bradford County in PA-8 while leaving out the Wilkes-Barre suburbs unless you're trying to advantage the GOP.

[Gass3268]

Here is the "deal" map

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1468801585287413763?s=20

This map is garbage.

[Roll Roons]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

[Roll Roons]

Also is it a given that Keller will be the Republican who gets drawn out? Or is it still possible that Meuser will instead?

[lfromnj]

Also wouldn't the proper way for Street to get his seat(I doubt that happens) is to draw the Chester outer Delco district and use the rest of Delco to get 2 black influence districts from Philly? There after you can double bunk Dean and Boyle in an inner Montco/ East Philly district.

[S019]

Oh my god, what is that?

[OBD]

What the hell. Get that sh!t out of here.

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

I mean Harrisburg is pretty bad although it seems to follow the river?

[If my soul was made of stone]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-splitting the Harrisburg metro four ways
-splitting Philadelphia four ways
-splitting Montgomery four ways
-pairing Harrisburg proper with counties in the f-cking Northern Tier
-pairing Lehigh and Northampton with anything but the Stroudsburgs and their environs, let alone Carbon
-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-1.splitting the Harrisburg metro four ways
-2.splitting Philadelphia four ways
-3.splitting Montgomery four ways
-4.pairing Harrisburg proper with counties in the f-cking Northern Tier
-5.pairing Lehigh and Northampton with anything but the Stroudsburgs and their environs, let alone Carbon
-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

1. Yes its bad.
2. 2 of these are relatively smaller chops and Philly gets 2 proper districts nested. Not a great fan but it isn't horrific.
3. Smaller chops  and I don't like it but we are talking about 1 township for one of these(Northern Bucks) Rotations should be relatively possible for this map. One of the chops seems to be for putting Cheltenham with PA03 likely to keep the black population up while increasing the black population of PA02.
5. No putting those 2 with Carbon is perfect. That's literally what the Lehigh valley is. It has partisan implications but most of those implications involve trading with PA08 I guess.

[If my soul was made of stone]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-1.splitting the Harrisburg metro four ways
-2.splitting Philadelphia four ways
-3.splitting Montgomery four ways
-4.pairing Harrisburg proper with counties in the f-cking Northern Tier
-5.pairing Lehigh and Northampton with anything but the Stroudsburgs and their environs, let alone Carbon
-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

1. What is the Harrisburg metro? Anyway yeah its bad
2. 2 of these are quite microchops and Philly gets 2 proper districts nested
3. Smaller chops  and I don't like it but we are talking about 1 township for one of these(Northern Bucks) Rotations should be relatively possible for this map. One of the chops seems to be for putting Cheltenham with PA03 likely to keep the black population up while increasing the black population of PA02.
5. No putting those 2 with Carbon is perfect. That's literally what the Lehigh valley is.

I'd define the Harrisburg metro for COI purposes as being all but the rural northern extremes of Dauphin + Mechanicsburg and everything east of it in Cumberland.

As for the rest, I suppose we'll agree to disagree. I much prefer a somewhat substantial split kept within a single county to a bunch of "microchops" across several counties, especially if it respects certain internal divisions. Carbon is indeed in the geographical Lehigh Valley, but occupies a more liminal rural space between the Lehigh Valley and NEPA metros.

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-1.splitting the Harrisburg metro four ways
-2.splitting Philadelphia four ways
-3.splitting Montgomery four ways
-4.pairing Harrisburg proper with counties in the f-cking Northern Tier
-5.pairing Lehigh and Northampton with anything but the Stroudsburgs and their environs, let alone Carbon
-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

1. What is the Harrisburg metro? Anyway yeah its bad
2. 2 of these are quite microchops and Philly gets 2 proper districts nested
3. Smaller chops  and I don't like it but we are talking about 1 township for one of these(Northern Bucks) Rotations should be relatively possible for this map. One of the chops seems to be for putting Cheltenham with PA03 likely to keep the black population up while increasing the black population of PA02.
5. No putting those 2 with Carbon is perfect. That's literally what the Lehigh valley is.

I'd define the Harrisburg metro for COI purposes as being all but the rural northern extremes of Dauphin + Mechanicsburg and everything east of it in Cumberland.

As for the rest, I suppose we'll agree to disagree. I much prefer a somewhat substantial split kept within a single county to a bunch of "microchops" across several counties, especially if it respects certain internal divisions. Carbon is indeed in the geographical Lehigh Valley, but occupies a more liminal rural space between the Lehigh Valley and NEPA metros.

Note the map isn't good but there's a difference between horrifically bad vs switching a few townships could substantially help it out.

The Chester Montco chop is probably for the most partisan purposes of keeping Houlahan with a relatively safe seat instead of having to take all that 70% R territory in exurban Reading.

Its god damn awful from a true fair map perspective but the simple issue is legislators have parochial concerns. R legislators simply don't want to split Lancaster or York County for example

[lfromnj]

How many black democrats are in each chamber?

Southern black dems seem to be sticking to the party this time around but Michigan black dems are not happy about the Detroit splitting and Milwaukee Democrats strongly opposed Ever's commission maps for similar reasons.

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

Also for the last part, there are way too many county splits in SEPA, but I think for the other 11 districts there only seem to be 10 splits which is basically the bare minimum for population equality?

[If my soul was made of stone]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

Also for the last part, there are way too many county splits in SEPA, but I think for the other 11 districts there only seem to be 10 splits which is basically the bare minimum for population equality?

The number of counties split is passable, but as I said they're done in ways where multiple non-contiguous pieces of counties are contained in the splits rather than single chunks–there are three separate pieces of Cumberland and two of Snyder in the 13th, two of Butler in the 17th, two of Monroe in the 7th. This is what makes it especially egregious in my view.

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

Also for the last part, there are way too many county splits in SEPA, but I think for the other 11 districts there only seem to be 10 splits which is basically the bare minimum for population equality?

The number of counties split is passable, but as I said they're done in ways where multiple non-contiguous pieces of counties are contained in the splits rather than single chunks–there are three separate pieces of Cumberland and two of Snyder in the 13th, two of Butler in the 17th, two of Monroe in the 7th. This is what makes it especially egregious in my view.

That's likely the focus on minimizing township splits. Not always my cup of tea but I do do it for example with my Lehigh district where mine is pretty similar with a "non contiguous" portion for the extra 12k needed from Monroe.

The Butler district is bad along with the Cumberland one but the Snyder/Monroe ones seem fine to me.


edit: The Monroe one takes a different town than I do, likely not to give Wild too red a district.