2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Former University of Pittsburgh chancellor named the tiebreaker vote for the PA state legislative maps.

https://twitter.com/SamDunklau/status/1389303502137081858?s=20

So does this mean we get a map in the same spirit as the previous one?

This process only applies for creating the state legislature maps.

And historically, it's always an AZ 2011 situation where the tiebreaker is a de facto partisan and just votes for whatever maps the party with a state supreme court majority at the time proposes.  I would expect just about the most Dem maps possible within the rules the state sets for legislative districts.

Yeah, the tiebreaker here was a member of Tom Wolf’s transition team

[Nyvin]

So if the State Senate is a plain map that keeps the cities together for the most part,  here's how I'd see the seats that Democrats could win -

More or less Safe D-
4 Alleghany
1 Scranton
1 Allentown
1 Harrisburg
1 Reading
2 Chester
13 SEPA

Tossup but probably leaning in Dem's direction-
1 Northampton
1 Lancaster
1 Erie
1 additional Alleghany

That's 23 seats they'd have a really good chance at winning, and a further 4 they can reach for.   So 27 total.   If they hold the Lt Gov seat they'd need 25 for majority, and 26 if lt gov is lost.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/10cf8230-5566-4ec2-a2b3-415a6e613d47

A "plain" map I drew.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else drawing state House maps?

[Boss_Rahm]

Anyone else drawing state House maps?

Here's a map I drew tabula rasa, aiming for compactness and respecting county lines.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/022ab1b1-f183-40bf-b748-f1d71e8d7928

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else drawing state House maps?

Here's a map I drew tabula rasa, aiming for compactness and respecting county lines.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/022ab1b1-f183-40bf-b748-f1d71e8d7928

Here's one I have, WIP
https://davesredistricting.org/join/dcecec00-9d0a-48d0-a81b-4bb83522205d

[Devils30]

Does anyone think if the Dems win the Supreme Court race and get 6-1 that they can maybe convince the court to draw a 11-6 map? I feel like the Dems will be bold in asking considering what will happen in states like FL.

[Roll Roons]

Does anyone think if the Dems win the Supreme Court race and get 6-1 that they can maybe convince the court to draw a 11-6 map? I feel like the Dems will be bold in asking considering what will happen in states like FL.

I feel like that would just have so much dummymander potential.

[Coastal Elitist]

Does anyone think if the Dems win the Supreme Court race and get 6-1 that they can maybe convince the court to draw a 11-6 map? I feel like the Dems will be bold in asking considering what will happen in states like FL.

no that would take an extreme gerrymander lol. You really need to look at DRA for Pennsylvania and make your own map and it will answer your question.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone think if the Dems win the Supreme Court race and get 6-1 that they can maybe convince the court to draw a 11-6 map? I feel like the Dems will be bold in asking considering what will happen in states like FL.

The court-drawn congressional map (if there is one) will probably be Dem favorable, but it also definitely not going to be 11-6.

[Devils30]

Yeah, I think a favorable realistic Dem map would be more like 10-7 with 1 of the 10 Biden districts being Fitzpatrick who is unlikely to lose a general in 22 or 24.

To make an actual 11-6 gerrymander that wouldn't backfire you really need to completely crack Philly and make the blue parts of PA-7,8 one blue district.

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 17-district map of Pennsylvania (Keyword being "tried" lol, this is probably my worst map yet).

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.10%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

52/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
64/100 on the Compactness Index
49/100 on County Splitting
78/100 on the Minority Representation index
39/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2016 Pennsylvania Attorney General Election (the closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election out of the choices given).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Pennsylvania Attorney General Election: 9D to 8R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Pennsylvania: 12R to 5D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Pennsylvania: 11R to 6D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Pennsylvania: 9D to 8R

2018 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election: 11D to 6R


Opinions?

[wbrocks67]

You love to see all of the increases in SEPA.

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1425873772394000384

[Boss_Rahm]

Here are the number of federal and state level districts each county and region is entitled to:

County    Population    US House   PA Senate   PA House
            
Berks    428,849    0.561   1.649   6.695
Bucks    646,538    0.845   2.486   10.094
Chester    534,413    0.699   2.055   8.343
Delaware    576,830    0.754   2.218   9.006
Montgomery    856,553    1.120   3.294   13.373
Philadelphia    1,603,797    2.097   6.167   25.039
SEPA    4,646,980    6.076   17.869   72.549
            
Lackawanna    215,896    0.282   0.830   3.371
Luzerne    325,594    0.426   1.252   5.083
Monroe    168,327    0.220   0.647   2.628
Pike    58,535    0.077   0.225   0.914
Susquehanna    38,434    0.050   0.148   0.600
Wayne    51,155    0.067   0.197   0.799
Wyoming    26,069    0.034   0.100   0.407
NEPA    884,010    1.156   3.399   13.801
            
Carbon    64,749    0.085   0.249   1.011
Lehigh    374,557    0.490   1.440   5.848
Northampton    312,951    0.409   1.203   4.886
Lehigh Valley    752,257    0.984   2.893   11.744
            
Adams    103,852    0.136   0.399   1.621
Cumberland    259,469    0.339   0.998   4.051
Dauphin    286,401    0.374   1.101   4.471
Lancaster    552,984    0.723   2.126   8.633
Lebanon    143,257    0.187   0.551   2.237
Perry    45,842    0.060   0.176   0.716
York    456,438    0.597   1.755   7.126
SCPA    1,848,243    2.416   7.107   28.855
            
Allegheny    1,250,578    1.635   4.809   19.524
Beaver    168,215    0.220   0.647   2.626
Butler    193,763    0.253   0.745   3.025
Fayette    128,804    0.168   0.495   2.011
Greene    35,954    0.047   0.138   0.561
Washington    209,349    0.274   0.805   3.268
Westmoreland    354,663    0.464   1.364   5.537
SWPA    2,341,326    3.061   9.003   36.553
            
Armstrong    65,558    0.086   0.252   1.024
Bedford    47,577    0.062   0.183   0.743
Blair    122,822    0.161   0.472   1.918
Bradford    59,967    0.078   0.231   0.936
Cambria    133,472    0.175   0.513   2.084
Cameron    4,547    0.006   0.017   0.071
Centre    158,172    0.207   0.608   2.469
Clarion    37,241    0.049   0.143   0.581
Clearfield    80,562    0.105   0.310   1.258
Clinton    37,450    0.049   0.144   0.585
Columbia    64,727    0.085   0.249   1.011
Crawford    83,938    0.110   0.323   1.310
Elk    30,990    0.041   0.119   0.484
Erie    270,876    0.354   1.042   4.229
Forest    6,973    0.009   0.027   0.109
Franklin    155,932    0.204   0.600   2.434
Fulton    14,556    0.019   0.056   0.227
Huntingdon    44,092    0.058   0.170   0.688
Indiana    83,246    0.109   0.320   1.300
Jefferson    44,492    0.058   0.171   0.695
Juniata    23,509    0.031   0.090   0.367
Lawrence    86,070    0.113   0.331   1.344
Lycoming    114,188    0.149   0.439   1.783
McKean    40,432    0.053   0.155   0.631
Mercer    110,652    0.145   0.425   1.728
Mifflin    46,143    0.060   0.177   0.720
Montour    18,136    0.024   0.070   0.283
Northumberland    91,647    0.120   0.352   1.431
Potter    16,396    0.021   0.063   0.256
Schuylkill    143,049    0.187   0.550   2.233
Snyder    39,736    0.052   0.153   0.620
Somerset    74,129    0.097   0.285   1.157
Sullivan    5,840    0.008   0.022   0.091
Tioga    41,045    0.054   0.158   0.641
Union    42,681    0.056   0.164   0.666
Venango    50,454    0.066   0.194   0.788
Warren    38,587    0.050   0.148   0.602
Central PA    2,529,884    3.308   9.728   39.497

[Non Swing Voter]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

[Brittain33]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

The current map is very favorable to Dems plus you have Matt Cartwright in a district that has zoomed to the right since he was elected. The state has to lose a district which means either a Dem district is eliminated or some of the remaining Dem districts have to take up more Republican territory which could endanger incumbents.

[Zaybay]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

Lets look at PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild (and in some cases even Houlahan). This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more. This is all with a court-drawn map, by the way, same as the current map.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

For instance, with PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild. This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

One good thing could be that Alleghany did pretty well and outperformed expectations on the most recent census meaning we could get a bluer PA-17, or at least, it's unlikely to get significantly redder.

[Zaybay]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

For instance, with PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild. This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

One good thing could be that Alleghany did pretty well and outperformed expectations on the most recent census meaning we could get a bluer PA-17, or at least, it's unlikely to get significantly redder.

Unless Alleghany gained a sh**t ton of people, it won't matter at all. Fundamentally, the seats have to greatly expand, including the Pittsburgh seat. For the Pittsburgh seat, the only territory it can really take is the blue suburbs that are currently in PA-17. For PA-17, the only territory it can take is the super R territory in Butler and Lawrence.

[Roll Roons]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

For instance, with PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild. This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

Exactly.

Here's my map, albeit with 2019 estimates: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e597fcd-7654-4f8f-8bb2-46f3df84038b

I cut PA-09, but PA-06 and PA-07 end up becoming several points more Republican by absorbing some of its old territory. Population loss in the west also forces Lamb's district (PA-15) to shift right. Because all the non-urban districts have to expand in size, PA-10 takes in more of York County and is now out of reach for Democrats barring a big wave.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

Cause that's generally not how population growth works.

Population growth can shake things up heavily on the local level, but on the federal level, you need rather drastic changes in order to have major effects. Not only that, but also pop growth needs to be put into context by what's going on in the state, and in almost all instances, said context is way, way, way more important than pop growth.

For instance, with PA. The state is losing a CD, one that likely has to come from the GOP areas that lost population. Now, I know what you're thinking, "Isn't that good? The GOP lose a seat!". Sure, at first it sounds good...until you get into the domino effect. Cause of the population loss, suddenly a bunch of marginal seats have to take in new territory, territory that is heavily R. This outright endangers and probably kills those in the marginals: Cartwright, Lamb, and Wild. This also takes the competitive PA-10 off the table once more.

In summary, just cause the D areas gained in pop doesn't mean it automatically translates to greater electoral prospects.

One good thing could be that Alleghany did pretty well and outperformed expectations on the most recent census meaning we could get a bluer PA-17, or at least, it's unlikely to get significantly redder.

Unless Alleghany gained a sh**t ton of people, it won't matter at all. Fundamentally, the seats have to greatly expand, including the Pittsburgh seat. For the Pittsburgh seat, the only territory it can really take is the blue suburbs that are currently in PA-17. For PA-17, the only territory it can take is the super R territory in Butler and Lawrence.

Fair enough. It'd have to grow faster than jsut positive growth to actually pull in. Seems like SEPA will prolly be a wash in terms of seats being pulled in as many of these counties grew more or less in line with the 5% increase they need to take in if that makes sense.

[Non Swing Voter]

How many votes does each PA seat need to roughly be now?  I saw on that map 750k but that seems low.  Allegheny is now 1.25m. 

If the districts need to be greatly expanded then it would seem to me that 12, 15, 16, 13 and 14 (which appear very rural) probably need to shrink down to 4 districts if the map is done fairly.  Eyeballing it, it looks like almost every single county in those districts lost population even as the state as a whole gained.

[wbrocks67]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

The current map is very favorable to Dems plus you have Matt Cartwright in a district that has zoomed to the right since he was elected. The state has to lose a district which means either a Dem district is eliminated or some of the remaining Dem districts have to take up more Republican territory which could endanger incumbents.

It's really not. It's literally a 9-9 map. If it was favorable to Dems it'd be 10-8.

Not sure how you get that a Dem district would be eliminated when all of the areas that lost population were GOP areas.

[Brittain33]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

The current map is very favorable to Dems plus you have Matt Cartwright in a district that has zoomed to the right since he was elected. The state has to lose a district which means either a Dem district is eliminated or some of the remaining Dem districts have to take up more Republican territory which could endanger incumbents.

It's really not. It's literally a 9-9 map. If it was favorable to Dems it'd be 10-8.

Not sure how you get that a Dem district would be eliminated when all of the areas that lost population were GOP areas.

I didn’t say a Dem district would be eliminated. I said there are two scenarios, a Dem or a Republican is eliminated, which is a tautology. In fact the district most often mentioned for deletion is the Republican PA-9.

The map is favorable to Dems because geography in Pa. is unfavorable to Dems and the court made deliberate choices to improve Dem representation to compensate for that, in particular with PA-17 and with the configuration of PA-6.

[Boss_Rahm]

With the 2020 Census data now available, I drew a nonpartisan map for which I'd be able to justify each decision.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/74e0c458-f669-494a-980e-01ea3fb48f2e

If you want to follow along, here are the steps I took to arrive at this map:

1.   Assign every county to a district or grouping of multiple districts
a.   Group together metro areas (using Census CSA definitions) larger than 1 district
i.   Metro Philadelphia (Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia) will contain 6 districts
ii.   Metro Pittsburgh (Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland), plus Greene (which would otherwise be isolated), will contain 3 districts
iii.   Metro Harrisburg (Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, Perry, and York), plus Lancaster (which would otherwise be stuck between Metro Philadelphia and Metro Harrisburg, and is more culturally connected to the latter), will contain 2 districts
b.   Starting from the corners of the state and moving inward, group remaining counties into roughly district-sized groups, while avoiding splitting metro areas
i.   Carbon, Lehigh, and Northampton counties get a district (Lehigh Valley)
ii.   Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Wyoming counties get a district (Wyoming Valley)
iii.   Armstrong, Clarion, Crawford, Erie, Forest, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango, and Warren counties get a district (NWPA)
iv.   Bradford, Columbia, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Pike, Schuylkill, Snyder, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, and Wayne counties get a district (E. Central PA)
v.   Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Indiana, Jefferson, McKean, and Potter counties get a district (W. Central PA)
vi.   Bedford, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, and Somerset counties get a district (smaller than the others because it will take on some population from the Metro Harrisburg grouping) (S. Central PA)
2.   Shift population between districts or district groupings so that each has a whole number of population quotas
a.   Metro Philadelphia has 57,790 more people than needed for 6 districts. The most exurban portion of Berks County will be moved to the Lehigh Valley district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Albany, Greenwich, Lenhartsville, Windsor, Hamburg, Maxatawny, Kutztown, Lyons, Tilden, Perry, Shoemakersville, Richmond, Fleetwood, Longswamp, Topton, Maidencreek, and Upper Bern are shifted into the Lehigh Valley district. Metro Philadelphia now has 508 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Ontelaunee is shifted into the Lehigh Valley district.
b.   The Lehigh Valley district now has 45,180 more people than needed. The most exurban portion of Carbon County will be moved to the Wyoming Valley district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Kidder, East Side, Penn Forest, Lehigh, Weatherly, Lausanne, Banks, Beaver Meadows, Packer, Jim Thorpe, Nesquehoning, Lansford, Summit Hill, Towamensing, Franklin, Parryville, and Weissport are shifted into the Wyoming Valley district. The Lehigh Valley district now has 2,216 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts. Lower Towamensing District North is shifted into the Wyoming Valley district. The Lehigh Valley district now has 467 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Lower Towamensing District South is shifted into the Wyoming Valley district.
c.   The Wyoming Valley district now has 16,206 more people than needed. To avoid splitting any more whole counties, part of Carbon County will be shifted into the E. Central PA district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Summit Hill, Lansford, Nesquehoning, Packer, Banks, Beaver Meadows, and Weatherly are shifted into the E. Central PA district. The Wyoming Valley district now has 22 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Banks is shifted back into the Wyoming Valley district.
d.   Metro Pittsburgh has 46,731 more people than needed for 3 districts. The most exurban portion of Butler County will be moved to the NWPA district, which will make both the Metro Pittsburgh grouping and the NWPA district more compact.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Harrisville, Mercer, Marion, Venango, Cherry Valley, Eau Claire, Allegheny, Slippery Rock, Cherry, Washington, Parker, Bruin, Worth, West Liberty, Brady, Clay, West Sunbury, Concord, Fairview, Petrolia, Karns City, Muddycreek, Portersville, Franklin, Center, Oakland, Chicora, and Donegal are shifted into the NWPA district. Metro Pittsburgh now has 666 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Prospect is shifted into the NWPA district.
e.   The NWPA district now has 32,220 more people than needed. The most southeastern portion of Armstrong County will be moved to the W. Central PA district, because this area is geographically the furthest from the City of Erie which anchors the NWPA district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Kiskiminetas, Apollo, North Apollo, Parks, South Bend, Burrell, Plumcreek, Elderton, Gilpin, Leechburg, Bethel, Manor, Manorville, Ford City, Ford Cliff, Kittanning Township, Rayburn, Valley, and Atwood are shifted into the W. Central PA district. The NWPA district now has 151 too many people.
ii.   Split a precint. Part of Cadogan is shifted into the W. Central PA district.
f.   The W. Central PA district now has 19,934 more people than needed. The most southeastern portion of Blair County will be moved to the S. Central PA district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population, to improve the compactness of that district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. North Woodbury, Martinsburg, Taylor, Roaring Spring, Huston, Woodbury, Williamsburg, Greenfield, and Freedom are shifted into the S. Central PA district. The W. Central PA district now has 233 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Catharine is shifted into the S. Central PA district.
g.   The E. Central PA district has 20,481 more people than needed. The most southwestern portion of Snyder County will be moved to the S. Central PA district, the only neighboring district/grouping that’s short on population, because this is the best option to retain the compactness of both districts.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. McClure, West Beaver, Spring, West Perry, Beaver, Beavertown, Adams, Perry, Franklin, Middleburg, Center, Chapman, Union, Washington, and Freeburg are shifted into the S. Central PA district. The E. Central PA district now has 55 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Union is shifted back into the E. Central PA district.
h.   Metro Harrisburg has 318,513 more people than needed for 2 districts. That amount of population needs to be shifted into the S. Central PA district, the last remaining district grouping that is off on population.
i.   Shift whole counties. Of the Metro Harrisburg counties that border the S. Central PA district, Adams and Perry are the most exurban, so they will be shifted first. Metro Harrisburg now has 168,819 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole municipalities. The westernmost portion of Cumberland County will be shifted to the S. Central PA district, which will make both the Metro Harrisburg grouping and the S. Central PA district more compact. Southampton, Shippensburg, Hopewell, Newburg, Upper Mifflin, Lower Mifflin, North Newtown, South Newtown, Newville, Cooke, Penn, West Pennsboro, Upper Frankford, Lower Frankford, Dickinson, South Middleton, Mount Holly Springs, Carlisle, North Middleton, Middlesex, Monroe, Silver Spring, Mechanicsburg, and Hampden are shifted into the S. Central PA district. Metro Harrisburg now has 1,485 too few people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Hampden’s 4th precinct is shifted back into the Metro Harrisburg grouping.
i.   The S. Central PA district now has the correct number of people.
3.   Assign every county within the remaining groupings to a district or grouping of multiple districts
a.   Metro Philadelphia
i.   The City of Philadelphia will contain 2 districts
ii.   Suburban Philadelphia (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and a portion of Berks) gets 4 districts, and will take on some population from Philadelphia County
b.   Metro Pittsburgh
i.   Allegheny County will contain a district (Urban Pittsburgh)
ii.   Fayette, Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland counties get a district (Exurban Pittsburgh)
iii.   Beaver County and part of Butler County get a district, which will take on some population from Allegheny County (Suburban Pittsburgh)
c.   Metro Harrisburg
i.   Lancaster and Lebanon counties get a district (Lancaster-Lebanon)
ii.   Dauphin and York counties and part of Cumberland County get a district (Harrisburg-York)
4.   Shift population between districts or district groupings so that each has a whole number of population quotas
a.   The City of Philadelphia has 74,067 more people than needed for 2 districts. The most suburban portion of Northeast Philadelphia will be moved to the Suburban Philadelphia grouping.
i.   Shift whole wards. Ward 58 is shifted into the Suburban Philadelphia grouping. The City of Philadelphia now has 20,214 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts within a ward. Precincts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 22, 23, 34, 38, and 41 of Ward 66 are shifted into the Suburban Philadelphia grouping. The City of Philadelphia now has 279 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Precinct 10 of Ward 66 is shifted into the Suburban Philadelphia grouping.
b.   Suburban Philadelphia now has the number of people needed for 4 districts.
c.   The Exurban Pittsburgh district has 36,095 fewer people than needed. It will take on the westernmost portion of Beaver County.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Frankfort Springs, Hanover, Greene, Hookstown, Georgetown, Independence, Shippingport, Raccoon, Potter, Glasgow, Ohioville, Midland, Industry, Brighton, Vanport, Beaver, and Bridgewater are shifted into the Exurban Pittsburgh district, which now has 1,432 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of South Beaver is shifted into tbe Exurban Pittsburgh district.
d.   The Suburban Pittsburgh district now has 485,717 too few people. It will take on the northernmost and westernmost suburban areas of Allegheny County.
i.   Shift geographic areas of Allegheny County. The portion of Allegheny County north of the Ohio River, the Allegheny River, and the City of Pittsburgh is shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district, which now has 191,670 too few people.
ii.   Shift whole municipalities. Crescent, Moon, Carnot-Moon, Coraopolis, Neville, Findlay, Clinton, Imperial, Enlow, North Fayette, Robinson, Pennsbury Village, Kennedy, Stowe, McKees Rocks, Oakdale, Noblestown, Sturgeon, McDonald, Thornburg, Rosslyn Farms, Crafton, Ingram, Carnegie, Collier, Rennerdale, South Fayette, Bridgeville, Heidelberg, Scott, and Upper St. Clair are shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district, which now has 2,913 too few people.
iii.   Shift whole precincts. Green Tree Districts 1 and 2 are shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district, which now has 546 too few people.
iv.   Split a precinct. Part of Green Tree District 3 is shifted into the Suburban Pittsburgh district.
e.   The Urban Pittsburgh district now has the correct number of people.
f.   The Harrisburg-York district has 68,632 too many people. The northernmost portion of Dauphin County will be shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Rush, Jefferson, Jackson, Williams, Williamstown, Wiconisco, Lykens, Gratz, Pillow, Washington, Elizabethville, Mifflin, Berrysburg, Upper Paxton, Millersburg, Lenkerville, Wayne, Halifax Township, Halifax Borough, Reed, Middle Paxton, Dauphin, East Hanover, West Hanover, and Skyline View are shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district. The Harrisburg-York district now has 3,672 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts. Derry Precincts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 13 are shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district. The Harrisburg-York district now has 389 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Derry Precinct 10 is shifted into the Lancaster-Lebanon district.
g.   The Lancaster-Lebanon district now has the correct number of people.
5.   Assign every county within the remaining groupings to a district or grouping of multiple districts, and for any grouping contained within a county, assign every ward to a district
a.   City of Philadelphia
i.   All wards west of Broad Street get assigned to a West Philadelphia district
ii.   All wards east of Broad Street get assigned to an East Philadelphia district
b.   Suburban Philadelphia
i.   Bucks County gets a district, and will also be assigned the portion of Philadelphia County in the Suburban Philadelphia grouping
ii.   Montgomery County gets a district
iii.   Delaware County gets a district
iv.   Chester County gets a district, and will also be assigned the portion of Berks County in the Suburban Philadelphia grouping
6.   Shift population between districts so that each has the correct population
a.   The West Philadelphia district has 20,867 too few people. It will take on population from the southernmost portion of the East Philadelphia district.
i.   Shift whole precincts. Precincts 1, 2, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29, 31, 33, 36, 39, 41, 43, and 44 of Ward 39 are shifted into the West Philadelphia district, which now has 96 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Precinct 40 of Ward 39 is shifted into the West Philadelphia district.
b.   The East Philadelphia district now has the correct number of people.
c.   The Bucks County district has 44,265 too few people. It will take on the easternmost portion of Montgomery County.
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Upper Moreland, and Hatboro are shifted into the Bucks County district, which now has 5,278 too many people.
ii.   Shift whole precincts. Upper Moreland District 2, Divisions 1 and 2 back to the Montgomery County district. The Bucks County district now has 1,211 too many people.
iii.   Split a precinct. Part of Upper Moreland District 4, Division 1 is shifted back to the Montgomery County district.
d.   The Montgomery County district now has 47,423 too many people. The southernmost portion of Montgomery County will be shifted into the Delaware County district.
i.   Shift whole wards. Lower Merion wards 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, and 14 are shifted into the Delaware County district. The Montgomery County district now has 1,287 too many people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Lower Merion Ward 6, Precinct 1 is shifted into the Delaware County district.
e.   The Delaware County district now has 140,611 too few people. It will take on
i.   Shift whole municipalities. Birmingham, Thornbury, Pennsbury, Westtown, Tredyffrin, Easttown, Willistown, Malvern, East Goshen, West Goshen, and West Chester are shifted into the Delaware County district, which now has 598 too few people.
ii.   Split a precinct. Part of Pocopson is shifted into the Delaware County district.
f.   The Chester County district now has the correct number of people.