2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's not necessarily an either/or between keeping Bucks whole and keeping Delaware whole. This map does both, whilst containing two performing VRA districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/6a9fa4a4-21e8-4144-b812-0d137b7c2ddd

I think the split of NE Philly is a little ugly here, and I personally think you'd have more cohesive districts if you gave it all to PA-1, hived off northern Bucks to the Berks district and adjusted the Montgomery district to fit, but it's perfectly serviceable.

Interesting middle ground proposal. I do agree it's a bit ugly how NW Philly is split. Imo, the linkage of Northern MontCo with Berks might have to be sacrificed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you reread the 2010 redistricting thread, you'll notice a lot of people talking about the traditional taboo on putting York with Lancaster, and that was smashed to bits in the 2018 reredistricting.

Map drawers often tend to draw districts because "it's always been done this way." See KY-01 and KY-02 for a good example. These taboos aren't usually rooted in a clear eyed understanding of communities of interest--rather blind adherence to previous map-drawing.

Your example is actually quite wrong here. Look at 1980, for instance, KY-01 and KY-02 have a logical border. KY-01's weird tail dates back to 1992 - it is not a "tradition", it is too young to even qualify as one. To compare Bucks being whole to KY-01 and KY-02 having their weird mutual border is like apples and oranges.

[Sol]

Here's a map which tries at a more CoI based approach, as opposed to county first. It turned out pretty similar to several other maps even though that wasn't intended, though I enjoyed the Main Line District.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess I'll post my map, too, it's a hypothetical Democratic leaning court map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4b0ab8e8-c4ac-4306-9eea-a120807c3a47

So this was another somewhat unique map.
The Philly CDs are bit messy, I do wonder exactly what the main driver of those lines were, it might be something very valid my eyes are missing. Imo I like the overall arrangement of SEPA; it's not exactly like what I would do but it does some novel things I haven't seen before, such as split Chester into a northern and southern half. The choice of precincts taken from Montgomery by the Delaware CD isn't terrible, though it would probably be better if they were directly bordering each other.
Tbh, I would remove the part of Dauphin within the Cumberland CD, take instead from York, and then compensate the Lancaster CD with parts of Lebanon County.
I would personally clean things up in SW PA by removing the tri-cut of Westmoreland and give it Blair County and, if necessary, at least part of Bedford and Fulton counties. If even that isn't enough, go into Somerset.
Also possible: give the Washington County CD Cambria in return for some of Westmoreland.
The lines linking Westmoreland with Pittsburgh can stay, given this is a Dem leaning map.
I would say it is decent, if somewhat unconventional in some areas.

[lfromnj]

It's not necessarily an either/or between keeping Bucks whole and keeping Delaware whole. This map does both, whilst containing two performing VRA districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/6a9fa4a4-21e8-4144-b812-0d137b7c2ddd

I think the split of NE Philly is a little ugly here, and I personally think you'd have more cohesive districts if you gave it all to PA-1, hived off northern Bucks to the Berks district and adjusted the Montgomery district to fit, but it's perfectly serviceable.

You mean Chester whole?

I had a pretty similar map to what you had for a Chester + Upper Delaware district .and I tried it last night before I saw this one

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Decided to go out of the box with this one.
Philly is divided right down Broad Street, and all leftovers are given to Bucks. MontCo cedes 9k or so to the Berks CD. Chester is the only county split in two in a huge way. I quite like this arrangement.
Particular emphasis was placed on compactness and reducing county splits. The Harrisburg CD moves right by about 2 points. I sacrificed having an ideal SW PA seat for large, compact CDs in the entirety of the rural areas of the state. One unique result of my decisions was the creation of a Trump+4 (R+1.8) seat combining all of Greene County and some of Fayette Counties with Swissvale and Plum, following river boundaries. The map ends up being a competitivemander in practice.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/987a1720-4a32-4313-82b8-c0a0efa72b35

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Did a variation of East Anglia Lefty's map that Tim Turner will definitely hate. If you can get over the MontCo and Bucks chops, I actually think it reflects SEPA COIs extremely well. Plus it has two AA VRA districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did a variation of East Anglia Lefty's map that Tim Turner will definitely hate. If you can get over the MontCo and Bucks chops, I actually think it reflects SEPA COIs extremely well. Plus it has two AA VRA districts.

Thanks. I hate it.
This is definitely not a good map in my book. You seem to know me well.
For starters, the border of 5th and the 12th, splits two counties.
The 11th and the 5th has a weird border that could be improved.
The 12th splits counties with almost all of its neighbors.
The 4th is a terrible district even leaving aside the MontCo/Bucks split (which, by itself, is not enough to make a map terrible, but is enough to disqualify it from being good). Its shape is instrumental in having all but one of Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware split, places such divergent areas as far NW Philly and far NE Bucks in the same district, and somehow despite all of that, 4 districts take from Philadelphia.
You can't even call this a good effort at a CoI map. It's a poor imitation.

[SevenEleven]

Did a variation of East Anglia Lefty's map that Tim Turner will definitely hate. If you can get over the MontCo and Bucks chops, I actually think it reflects SEPA COIs extremely well. Plus it has two AA VRA districts.

Thanks. I hate it.
This is definitely not a good map in my book. You seem to know me well.
For starters, the border of 5th and the 12th, splits two counties.
The 11th and the 5th has a weird border that could be improved.
The 12th splits counties with almost all of its neighbors.
The 4th is a terrible district even leaving aside the MontCo/Bucks split (which, by itself, is not enough to make a map terrible, but is enough to disqualify it from being good). Its shape is instrumental in having all but one of Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware split, places such divergent areas as far NW Philly and far NE Bucks in the same district, and somehow despite all of that, 4 districts take from Philadelphia.
You can't even call this a good effort at a CoI map. It's a poor imitation.

What do you think of my Fair Map?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

As a general rule, I'm not a huge fan of pairing Berks and Chester.

[SevenEleven]

As a general rule, I'm not a huge fan of pairing Berks and Chester.

Why do you say that? I know Berks is generally more working class or whatever you want to call it, but you have to pair something with Berks. Everyone seems to hate splitting Bucks (despite upper and lower Bucks being vastly different in nature), so splitting Chester is really the only option and Berks makes more sense than Lancaster.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

As a general rule, I'm not a huge fan of pairing Berks and Chester.

Why do you say that? I know Berks is generally more working class or whatever you want to call it, but you have to pair something with Berks. Everyone seems to hate splitting Bucks (despite upper and lower Bucks being vastly different in nature), so splitting Chester is really the only option and Berks makes more sense than Lancaster.

It just seems kind of geographically awkward and non-compact. If you tie a county of SEPA to a county in the rest of the state, I think your options are Chester-Lancaster, Montgomery-Berks, and Bucks-Lehigh Valley. I increasingly think the middle option is the best.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did a variation of East Anglia Lefty's map that Tim Turner will definitely hate. If you can get over the MontCo and Bucks chops, I actually think it reflects SEPA COIs extremely well. Plus it has two AA VRA districts.

Thanks. I hate it.
This is definitely not a good map in my book. You seem to know me well.
For starters, the border of 5th and the 12th, splits two counties.
The 11th and the 5th has a weird border that could be improved.
The 12th splits counties with almost all of its neighbors.
The 4th is a terrible district even leaving aside the MontCo/Bucks split (which, by itself, is not enough to make a map terrible, but is enough to disqualify it from being good). Its shape is instrumental in having all but one of Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware split, places such divergent areas as far NW Philly and far NE Bucks in the same district, and somehow despite all of that, 4 districts take from Philadelphia.
You can't even call this a good effort at a CoI map. It's a poor imitation.

What do you think of my Fair Map?

The number of overall county splits is a bit too high for me to be totally comfortable, but it's not too shabby. The Philly CDs aren't too bad, I've never seen that arrangement before. It's a decent alternative to splitting Philly by Broad Street. If I ever did something along those lines (probably will) I'd take care to not split any special wards, and if I have to, will split the minimum number necessary.
Personally I'd give the 5th territory less to the west, but you might well have had worthy objectives in mind with the choice of territory, so I won't be too negative in that department.
The 4th baconstripping is somewhat problematic in a vacuum but if you are more aimed towards proportionality, then it's not something I'd grumble about.
Delaware is kept whole, which is good. 8 and 9 are logical. Can't say I quibble that much with the districts in Central PA. 14 is pitch-perfect. Districts in Allegheny are weird on paper but they follow river boundaries so I'm fine with them at the end of the day.
Overall I say it's a decent map that, like the map I just posted upthread, makes some unique choices.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Again, I want to emphasize how absurd not splitting Montgomery is. Actually look at a map of the Delaware-Montgomery county line. It randomly slashed through the center of Bryn Mawr and Ardmore, cutting through a continuous built up area stretching from the blue route to the Schuylkill. There is nothing about this area that is more connected to Lansdale than Delco/Chesco but the county line was never adjusted to reflect that. This area should 100% use the Schuylkill River as the dividing line, not the county line. It's just a bad COI otherwise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Again, I want to emphasize how absurd not splitting Montgomery is. Actually look at a map of the Delaware-Montgomery county line. It randomly slashed through the center of Bryn Mawr and Ardmore, cutting through a continuous built up area stretching from the blue route to the Schuylkill. There is nothing about this area that is more connected to Lansdale than Delco/Chesco but the county line was never adjusted to reflect that. This area should 100% use the Schuylkill River as the dividing line, not the county line. It's just a bad COI otherwise.

What is the population of Montgomery minus the part south of the Schuylkill?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What is the population of Montgomery minus the part south of the Schuylkill?

722,889

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the population of Montgomery minus the part south of the Schuylkill?

722,889

Tbh, I could see a map where Bucks draws the entirety of the leftovers from Philly, then you have a Philly seat that takes in those leftovers from MontCo and whatever needed from DelCo, and then a CD is drawn from DelCo+Chester.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What is the population of Montgomery minus the part south of the Schuylkill?

722,889

Tbh, I could see a map where Bucks draws the entirety of the leftovers from Philly, then you have a Philly seat that takes in those leftovers from MontCo and whatever needed from DelCo, and then a CD is drawn from DelCo+Chester.

Thoughts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the population of Montgomery minus the part south of the Schuylkill?

722,889

Tbh, I could see a map where Bucks draws the entirety of the leftovers from Philly, then you have a Philly seat that takes in those leftovers from MontCo and whatever needed from DelCo, and then a CD is drawn from DelCo+Chester.

Thoughts?

Interesting arrangement. I do like the compactness and synergy of 2 Philly-centric seats and 3 inner-ring ones all bordering it.
Delaware being split is a shame but it's better than the alternative - the screenshot you posted is highly illuminating.
If we have to have 4 seats taking from Philly and all the SEPA counties except Bucks split in some way, this is among the very best ways of doing it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I'd been playing around with a map that didn't have a SE PA + Berks combo for 6 seats, which works out very similarly to Blairite's effort:





PA-1: Bucks County plus 3 wards from NE Philly and change. Clinton 48.5-47.9. Shouldn't give Fitzgerald sleepless nights.

PA-2: North and NE Philly. 41.4% AA by CVAP, 33.5% white. Boyle wouldn't necessarily be doomed in a primary, but he certainly wouldn't welcome this map.

PA-3: South and West Philly, plus Darby township and a few other black-majority municipalities in Delaware. 49.8% AA by CVAP, 53.2% by total population.

PA-4: Montgomery County west of the Schuykill, plus Upper Merion township. Clinton 57.1-39.1.

PA-5: The bulk of Delaware County is combined with Main Line communities in Chester and Montgomery Counties. Clinton 59.3-37.3.

PA-6: Lancaster County and the south of Chester County. The tri-cut of Chester isn't lovely, but otherwise I think this is a reasonably cohesive district. Trump 53.2-42.0 and there isn't enough of Delaware County in here for this to trend towards competitiveness any time soon.

PA-7: Lehigh County, Northampton County and East Stroudsburg. Almost no changes from the current district. Clinton 48.3-48.0.

PA-8: I know Lackwanna, Luzerne, Monroe and Pike works, but I just think it makes the surrounding districts look awkward. This swaps East Stroudsburg for Wyoming, Wayne and bits of Susquehanna is accordingly significantly redder. Trump 55.0-42.0. Biden will have been a bit closer this year, but it's probably still too red for Cartwright even in an even year.

PA-9: Berks County, northern Chester, Schuykill County and Carbon County. The days when Tim Holden could hold down a district like this are long-gone, as Schuykill and Carbon are just too far gone for Democrats. Trump 56.0-39.9.

PA-10: My major problem with maps assigning 6 districts to Berks and SE PA is that it tends to lead to Harrisburg being separated from its hinterland. This map nicely avoids that and manages to create a district with the state capital at its centre. Swapping the city of York for Lebanon and Perry Counties ought to take this off the target map for Democrats. Trump 56.1-39.6

PA-11: The South-Central PA district. Monolithically Republican but lacks an incumbent.

PA-12: The North-Central PA district. The reddest on the map.

PA-13: Altoona, Johnstown and State College. Joyce and Howard both live here, so unless the former moves that means a primary contest.

PA-14: All of Fayette, Greene and Washington, most of Westmoreland and SW Allegheny. Trump 62.2-34.6.

PA-15: This is the new PA-18. It packs in Pittsburgh, all of its eastern suburbs and most of its southern suburbs. Clinton 63.8-32.7.

PA-16: Erie, most of Butler County and points in between. Outside Erie, there's too little blue turf to make this competitive. Trump 60.5-35.3.

PA-17: Compared to the current iteration, this swaps Mt. Lebanon and Penn Hills for Lawrence County and southern Butler County, the partisan consequences of which are fairly obvious. Trump 55.1-41.2, which is surely too red for Lamb.

Overall, despite having been drawn with little regard to partisan data, this is an excellent map for Republicans, since in most years it would return an 11R-D6 delegation.

EDIT: Whilst typing this up, I found I was a little unsatisfied with the orientation of my proposed PA-11, so I tweaked it a bit and accordingly rotated territory between PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-13 and PA-16. I think it's a little neater, but the only significant change from an electoral standpoint is that PA-12 becomes the incumbent faceoff rather than PA-13. You can find that version here: https://davesredistricting.org/join/37e82622-727f-4e5f-bf88-1b60adf95141

[lfromnj]

I’m not going to lean too much on the choice of one word as I say something the poster is already aware of, but it’s always good to remember that the “natural” skew of large cities and “self-packing” are the result of decades of federal, state, local, and business policies that heavily restricted where people of color could live to a small number of communities, so a neutral political process that perpetuates the impact of that ghettoization by wasting tens of thousands of votes in compact but lopsidedly uncompetitive districts, reducing political power for the minority group per individual, is not neutral at all.

Nice try but no, this is just Democrat whining about white liberals living in the surrounding areas which creates the self packing problem. A 60% black district in MS doesn't cause a self packing problem. A 50% black district in Philly is not "overpacking" its just the fact that the whites in that district are also very Democratic.

This wasn't an  issue for Democrats earlier. When suburban areas used to be the most red areas in the country it was perfectly fine for Democrats to create minority districts without overpacking even in Northern cities.
For example
In Milwaukee it used to be fine for D's in 2012 to create a WOW district and a core Milwaukee district.  The Milwaukee district would barely be more D by raw vote margin than the WOW district. Now its an issue for Democrats and they have a sudden desire to split the areas.

[Gass3268]

Here is Dave Wassserman's take:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1335690475433562112?s=20

[palandio]

Continuity map that axes one R district:

2012/2016 PVI, 2016 Clinton share of 2-party vote

1: R+0.60, Clinton 51.01%
The MontCo part is extended both northwards and southwards to exactly preserve the district's political lean.

4: D +2.96, Clinton 54.93%
6: D +1.30, Clinton 54.28%
Wassermann slightly rotates the 4th, 5th and 6th which allows him to preserve the Montgomery/Delaware county border and gives the 4th a nicer shape and more continuity with its current version. My solution preserves the Delaware/Chester county border and gives the 6th a nicer shape and more continuity with its current version. I guess that you have to swallow one of these bitter pills or go for a completely new solution.

7: R +1.47, Clinton 48.04%
8: R +0.61, Clinton 45.54%
Here the continuity solution would have been to expand the 7th's share of Monroe county at the expense of the 8th and to expand the 8th to Carbon county plus some additions in Luzerne county. My solution includes the nice 4-county combo for the 8th that avoids one county split. It is slightly more favorable for Cartwright and slightly less for Wild than the pure continuity solution.

9: R +6.10, Clinton 44.37%
More or less preserves the old D longshot district. The Dauphin/Cumberland/York/Lancaster 4-county combo is quite nice and fits perfectly with a continuity map. Lebanon county is a bit of a problem if you also put Berks with SEPA but I think that my solution for Lebanon county is still acceptable.

16: R +3.55, Clinton 47.83%
I tried to keep the changes in Allegheny county to an absolutely necessary minimum and was happy that I could do this without forcing an unnecessary additional county split. Lamb's district of course moves slightly to the right, as has to be expected from a continuity map, but not too much.

[Boss_Rahm]

Here's my proposal for Pennsylvania, which I think has a lot going for it:
- There are just 12 (!) county chops, but the population deviations are all less than +/- 1,000
- Greater Pittsburgh keeps 3 whole districts
- Exurban Baltimore gets its own district
- There's continuity in the suburban Philadelphia districts, with compactness arguably improving
- Both Philadelphia districts are 60% minority and 40% Black
- Carbon County joins the Lehigh Valley district
DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3108f1e7-7e09-49bd-83f8-4ecdd85acfd6

[Sol]

Here's my proposal for Pennsylvania, which I think has a lot going for it:
- There are just 12 (!) county chops, but the population deviations are all less than +/- 1,000
- Greater Pittsburgh keeps 3 whole districts
- Exurban Baltimore gets its own district
- There's continuity in the suburban Philadelphia districts, with compactness arguably improving
- Both Philadelphia districts are 60% minority and 40% Black
- Carbon County joins the Lehigh Valley district
DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3108f1e7-7e09-49bd-83f8-4ecdd85acfd6

Not bad at all, though I don't love separating Cumberland and Dauphin.