2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

A 9-0 map of Massachusetts is fair even if Republicans proportionally "deserve" 3 (separately, of course, from the fact that it's impossible to give Republicans 3 Massachusetts seats. A map like this decade's that gives Democrats 100% of the NH seats is fair even if Republicans proportionally "deserve" 1. Etc etc.

[Nyvin]

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh.

State-sponsored racial discrimination in housing, leading to 90+% African-American neighborhoods adjacent to places in Bucks County where they were forbidden to live, is not “self-packing.” Using racial discrimination as a justification for unequal distribution of political power is rewarding racists for their success.

It is self packing that Democratic vote shares are highly concentrated in urban areas.

Republicans are heavily concentrated in rural areas....do you penalize them for that?

Excluding some rare rural packs, Republicans are less concentrated in rural areas than Dems in urban areas.

Less concentrated doesn't mean not concentrated at all,  they should still be penalized like you seem to want to penalize Democrats.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh.

State-sponsored racial discrimination in housing, leading to 90+% African-American neighborhoods adjacent to places in Bucks County where they were forbidden to live, is not “self-packing.” Using racial discrimination as a justification for unequal distribution of political power is rewarding racists for their success.

It is self packing that Democratic vote shares are highly concentrated in urban areas.

Republicans are heavily concentrated in rural areas....do you penalize them for that?

Excluding some rare rural packs, Republicans are less concentrated in rural areas than Dems in urban areas.

Less concentrated doesn't mean not concentrated at all,  they should still be penalized like you seem to want to penalize Democrats.

This isn't about penalizing. It's about communities of interest. In a state like Pennsylvania, Republicans are "penalized" because a fair map draws a bunch of deep red districts in Central PA. It's just that those districts are less relatively red than the deep blue urban districts are blue, and that there's fewer of them.

[wbrocks67]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.

Nope, it totally makes sense. And yep, that seems perfectly fair.

[lfromnj]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.

Is it fair that Joe Torsella wins 9/17 districts while losing statewide? Republicans won the statewide house PV in PA for 2020 yet it seems under this map Dems would have won a majority of seats.

Still waiting for the explanation why Torsella/PA house dems winning a majority despite losing the PV is "fair" and why tri chopping Berks is needed for partisan fairness.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.

Nope, it totally makes sense. And yep, that seems perfectly fair.

To reiterate, everybody in that state likely has different needs. That city needs a local representative who understand things like public transportation or apartment zoning. The more rural areas need someone who understands the lumber industry or river commerce. It’s not all about R vs D

[Boss_Rahm]

I'm begging you all to remember, the PASC did not draw this map. It was one of 15 proposals submitted by various plaintiffs, including both Democratic and Republican groups.

If you want to argue that the chosen map is unfair, you should be prepared to defend why one of the other submissions was better. Because I would argue that while the adopted plan deviates from a partisan-blind definition of fairness in the Pittsburgh area, all of the other proposals had aspects that were worse - whether it be splitting the Wilkes-Barre area, splitting the Harrisburg area, excessive county splits, or other problems.

Republicans had every opportunity to propose a fair map, but they did not. They have no one but themselves to blame for the outcome.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm begging you all to remember, the PASC did not draw this map. It was one of 15 proposals submitted by various plaintiffs, including both Democratic and Republican groups.

If you want to argue that the chosen map is unfair, you should be prepared to defend why one of the other submissions was better. Because I would argue that while the adopted plan deviates from a partisan-blind definition of fairness in the Pittsburgh area, all of the other proposals had aspects that were worse - whether it be splitting the Wilkes-Barre area, splitting the Harrisburg area, excessive county splits, or other problems.

Republicans had every opportunity to propose a fair map, but they did not. They have no one but themselves to blame for the outcome.

I don't think any of the submissions were fair.

[UncleSam]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.

Why does that make no sense? Geographic disadvantage is a thing and it advantages both parties in different parts of the country.

[politicallefty]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

[lfromnj]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

[politicallefty]

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Maybe historically. I'd still argue that the combined Lehigh-Northampton Counties are better suited with Monroe County. It's not a major disagreement and one I'd be willing to relent on if we were working on a compromise map.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

You have to remember that the current map is the result of the Court making deliberate Democratic-favoring choices to achieve proportionality.  My guess is that, if you were to get someone with no knowledge of what areas vote what way to draw a COI-focused map, you'd probably wind up with something like 10-7 Trump in PA.

[politicallefty]

You have to remember that the current map is the result of the Court making deliberate Democratic-favoring choices to achieve proportionality.  My guess is that, if you were to get someone with no knowledge of what areas vote what way to draw a COI-focused map, you'd probably wind up with something like 10-7 Trump in PA.

I'm aware of that and I explicitly mentioned that the 2018 map took some liberties to obtain a Democratic lean. I do not see how anyone can call the 2018 map unfair though.

As for the new map, I already said I would not have split Allegheny County like that. That said, it's easy to have PA-17 as a competitive Biden district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Say the 2018 court map was the same except they swapped Monroe County out for Carbon County and as much of Monroe as is needed. Do Ds win both seats in 2020?

[Roll Roons]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Say the 2018 court map was the same except they swapped Monroe County out for Carbon County and as much of Monroe as is needed. Do Ds win both seats in 2020?

My guess is Cartwright holds on but Wild loses.

[lfromnj]

I don't agree that self-packing is that bad for Democrats in Pennsylvania anymore. I'd agree that there is some geographic disadvantage for for Democrats in the state (particularly due to the main Democratic concentration being in the corner of the state), but it's not necessarily the result of self-packing. The rural areas have lurched far to the right over the past several years, though really starting (at least in terms of the trend) with Obama in 2008. If you compare 2004 with 2020, Kerry did about 1.3% better on the statewide margin compared to Biden. Their margins in Philadelphia were very similar. Kerry was still getting crushed in the rurals, particularly the ancestral ultra-Republican "T" (James Carville used to refer to the state as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle). Trump's margins in the rurals were astronomical though.

Look at the current 18-district map. It includes two districts contained with Philadelphia and several rural districts across the state. Look at the safest half of the state.

PA-03: 91-8 Biden (Philly)
PA-13: 72-27 Trump (South Central PA)
PA-15: 71-28 Trump (NW Central PA)
PA-02: 70-29 Biden (Philly)
PA-12: 67-31 Trump (NE/North Central PA)
PA-05: 65-34 Biden (DelCo)
PA-09: 65-34 Trump (East Central PA)
PA-18: 65-34 Biden (Pittsburgh)
PA-14: 63-36 Trump (SWPA)

The safest district is indeed far and away Democratic. However, the second and third are both Republican districts. The core urban areas actually somewhat weakened for Democrats in 2020 while the rurals stayed steady or even improved for Republicans. The 2018 map may have taken some decisions that leaned towards Democrats, but the map was eminently logical and fair.

As for the new map, I would've kept a district entirely within Allegheny County (as shown in my map a few pages back). On the other hand, I wouldn't have put Carbon County with the Lehigh Valley. I think Monroe County fits better. I also had the tri-chop of Berks County. It's a hard county to deal with on account of its location if you believe other counties/COIs should be left intact (including the Lehigh Valley, Lancaster County, Chester County, and Bucks County by extension).

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Say the 2018 court map was the same except they swapped Monroe County out for Carbon County and as much of Monroe as is needed. Do Ds win both seats in 2020?

My guess is Cartwright holds on but Wild loses.

Cartwright obviously holds, he gets a Trump +1 seat or something like that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was thinking the same. Wild very narrowly loses.

[lfromnj]

Carbon is actually part of the Lehigh Valley.

Monroe is part of the Poconos  like Wayne and Pike.

Maybe historically. I'd still argue that the combined Lehigh-Northampton Counties are better suited with Monroe County. It's not a major disagreement and one I'd be willing to relent on if we were working on a compromise map.

It's mostly just because like the 2018 map which clearly just put Lehigh with Monroe to give Clinton 8/18 seats. Lehigh+ Monroe+ Carbon was a few hundred short of a district in 2010 numbers.


This is the ideal Harrisburg district in a vacuum similar to the Lehigh district as well but unfortunately unlike the Lehigh district something  has to sacrifice in this region.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republicans asking SCOTUS for an emergency injunction, LOL: https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/republicans-ask-scotus-for-emergency-injunction-ordering-at-large-elections-if-need-be-and-blocking-pennsylvanias-new-congressional-maps

Probably going nowhere since SCOTUS already took such overview off the table.

[politicallefty]

It's mostly just because like the 2018 map which clearly just put Lehigh with Monroe to give Clinton 8/18 seats. Lehigh+ Monroe+ Carbon was a few hundred short of a district in 2010 numbers.

That's a fair enough point. I spend so much time playing with the 2020 numbers and a 17-district map that I'd forgotten that. Ideally though, these are decisions that would be made by a nonpartisan commission with set standards in place. I'm not saying there's one true fair map.

This is the ideal Harrisburg district in a vacuum similar to the Lehigh district as well but unfortunately unlike the Lehigh district something  has to sacrifice in this region.

Interestingly, on that point, the court-approved map was almost identical to the one I drew. The counties that make up PA-10, PA-11, and PA-13 fit almost perfectly into three districts. I do think the Harrisburg-York configuration is a logical one. That configuration also leaves all of Lancaster County with the remainder of York, another logical configuration. I think the odd district out is PA-09 again (just like in the 2018 map, although that one was more coherent). There aren't many good options though, with rural PA bleeding population. If population trends continue as they've been over this decade and PA loses another seat in 2030, I'd expect that seat to be obliterated in any reasonably fair map.

[lfromnj]

It's mostly just because like the 2018 map which clearly just put Lehigh with Monroe to give Clinton 8/18 seats. Lehigh+ Monroe+ Carbon was a few hundred short of a district in 2010 numbers.

That's a fair enough point. I spend so much time playing with the 2020 numbers and a 17-district map that I'd forgotten that. Ideally though, these are decisions that would be made by a nonpartisan commission with set standards in place. I'm not saying there's one true fair map.

This is the ideal Harrisburg district in a vacuum similar to the Lehigh district as well but unfortunately unlike the Lehigh district something  has to sacrifice in this region.

Interestingly, on that point, the court-approved map was almost identical to the one I drew. The counties that make up PA-10, PA-11, and PA-13 fit almost perfectly into three districts. I do think the Harrisburg-York configuration is a logical one. That configuration also leaves all of Lancaster County with the remainder of York, another logical configuration. I think the odd district out is PA-09 again (just like in the 2018 map, although that one was more coherent). There aren't many good options though, with rural PA bleeding population. If population trends continue as they've been over this decade and PA loses another seat in 2030, I'd expect that seat to be obliterated in any reasonably fair map.

York and Lancaster aren't as logical as one thinks and IIRC have a sort of rivarly going on. The Ideal York district should include York + Gettysburg as well. However my point about idealness here is compared to other areas the entire area is just weird to draw so if you try drawing ideal districts somewhere, something else gets messed up. Similar examples of drawing ideal districts which can mess up the rest of the state are,

Lee County FL-760k people and basically its own metro, it should be whole right? Nope if it stays whole Collier goes into Miami Dade.

 A lot in CA,
San Joaquin definetely makes sense to keep whole as the Stockton metro area but at the same time its the gateway between the Bay Area/Central Valley so it usually gets chopped up. MA also has similar issues in SE MA regarding Plymouth/Bristol counties.

There's no good solution really and I don't get why people have to act like York-Harrisburg is the end be all to this region when its simply just a Dem friendly choice a Dem friendly court made in 2018.

Choice means a variety of mediocre options exist and the court chose a D friendly one of those.

[Torie]

I think the least change map the court picked was a least change map and "fair" to the extent that when there are two least change choices, the one that moves towards proportionality is picked, helping the Dems. That is what the court did last time almost to a T. Of all the Dem court picked or drawn maps out there on the fruited plain, that is the most even handed.

I was bothered by the move out of the Pittsburgh CD outside of Allegheny County into Westmoreland, but upon reflection, least change can be done either by that chop into Westmoreland, or by the other CD chopping much deeper into Butler County. The same number of residents are moved I think either way. That is the choice with the most dramatic partisan effect but justifiable I think. At least this court, unlike NC for example, did not write proportionality into the PA Constitution. It only came up because the Pubs did not have the trifecta. I would assume that if they get it, they could do a redraw. After all, the court seemed to agree all the choices were legal because all the maps respected county and municipal lines to a reasonable extent.

[Boss_Rahm]

If you were to rank the options in SCPA from most Dem-friendly to most R-friendly, it would be:

Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York in the same district
Harrisburg and Lancaster together, York separate
Harrisburg and York together, Lancaster separate
Lancaster and York together, Harrisburg separate
Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York all separate

So in a sense, Harrisburg-York is the median choice.