2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania
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  2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania  (Read 41600 times)
Sestak
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« Reply #75 on: November 24, 2020, 04:16:54 PM »

There's also a nonzero chance that Cartwright could still end up winning such a district? Especially presuming Wolf/dems would never approve or go with such a map unless one of Wild or Cartwright presumably was either retiring or had another office to jump to.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #76 on: November 24, 2020, 04:33:03 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 04:43:43 PM by lfromnj »

There's also a nonzero chance that Cartwright could still end up winning such a district? Especially presuming Wolf/dems would never approve or go with such a map unless one of Wild or Cartwright presumably was either retiring or had another office to jump to.

Do you mean the blue district?, yeah he could run there and maybe win the primary.
The Purple district was only Obama +2 in 08 so its Safe R. Its +15 R composite 2012>2016

Again this map shores up Wild and Saves Houlahan from taking a more red district and less upscale. Pretty decent deal for D's in East PA especially when the D district is probably flipping soon.

A more court oriented map would hurt D's pretty badly as Cartwright has to expand a lot, which either means a lot of blood red areas or Monroe County which would hurt Wild.

Fitzpatrick would get hurt a touch but honestly he's doing pretty fine so not too much of a D advantage there until maybe the next D wave. And then Houlahan gets pushed out pretty far.

My map just fully accepts Cartwright's district is going to be hard either way withit expanding and just cutting it out while shoring up the other 2 swing district D incumbents while only giving Fitzpatrick a mild advantage.

So the D options are with Wilds/Fitzpatrick/Houlahan/Cartwright is
Tossup/Likely R with Fitz and tilt D without/ tossup/ Lean R with Cartwright and Likely R without or
Safe D/Safe R with Fitz and Lean R without/ Likely D/ Safe R with or without Cartwright.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #77 on: November 24, 2020, 04:51:52 PM »

Other than Wolf's reputation, if the Pubs draw a reasonable map, that can defended on its merits aside from the partisan implications at the margins arising from hewing to such principles, even though the Court is Dem controlled, it might be that a court that takes an oath to just follow the law, and not be partisan hacks, just maybe will not go for something that is clearly a Dem gerrymander. And it is not clear to me that it will end up in state rather than federal court in the context of a deadlock. In NY, with a deadlock, it ended up in federal court, which drew the lines. So there are risks associated with going for the max.

Fortune favors the bold
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Sestak
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« Reply #78 on: November 24, 2020, 11:19:17 PM »

There's also a nonzero chance that Cartwright could still end up winning such a district? Especially presuming Wolf/dems would never approve or go with such a map unless one of Wild or Cartwright presumably was either retiring or had another office to jump to.

Do you mean the blue district?, yeah he could run there and maybe win the primary.
The Purple district was only Obama +2 in 08 so its Safe R. Its +15 R composite 2012>2016

Yes, I mean the Allentown-Scranton combo seat. My point is while I do think it's not a bad choice for Dems/Wolf to try to push, they'll probably not do it without one of the incumbents either retiring or having other plans.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #79 on: November 24, 2020, 11:25:41 PM »

There's also a nonzero chance that Cartwright could still end up winning such a district? Especially presuming Wolf/dems would never approve or go with such a map unless one of Wild or Cartwright presumably was either retiring or had another office to jump to.

Do you mean the blue district?, yeah he could run there and maybe win the primary.
The Purple district was only Obama +2 in 08 so its Safe R. Its +15 R composite 2012>2016

Yes, I mean the Allentown-Scranton combo seat. My point is while I do think it's not a bad choice for Dems/Wolf to try to push, they'll probably not do it without one of the incumbents either retiring or having other plans.


 I guess Biden could save him for an open cabinet spot or Ambassadorship after the election?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #80 on: November 24, 2020, 11:58:58 PM »

Annoyingly, a fair 17-district map in PA only produces 5 Safe D districts (2 in Philly, MontCo, DelCo, and Pittsburgh.) You may not like it (I certainly don't) but this is what peak fair map performance looks like:



Hate to beat this CRR drum here, but imagine what could be done with ~28 seats?

PA has a problem since all of its D votes are packed into tight little circles, so larger districts done without spaghetti strips drowns them all out. Smaller districts on the other hand make things more interesting.

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SevenEleven
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« Reply #81 on: November 25, 2020, 01:23:19 AM »

Annoyingly, a fair 17-district map in PA only produces 5 Safe D districts (2 in Philly, MontCo, DelCo, and Pittsburgh.) You may not like it (I certainly don't) but this is what peak fair map performance looks like:



I don't like this map, I'll be honest. A truly fair map starts with an AA Philly district, then applies the same principles we each used on our VA maps. I realize the tradition keeps the Bucks district the way it is, but let's not mistake tradition for equity.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #82 on: November 25, 2020, 01:40:00 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 01:46:15 AM by lfromnj »

The Lehigh seat should clearly have Carbon in a fair map as its part of the Lehigh valley, honestly the fact the current map doesn't have Carbon is an absolute disgrace for a "fair map" as Lehigh+ Northampton+ Carbon is perfectly 1 seat with 2010 pop +6k people. Wild still survives with those 3 counties although I think the district shifts a point to the right? Anyway it was just stupid those 3 counties weren't kept together.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #83 on: November 25, 2020, 01:47:32 AM »

The Lehigh seat should clearly have Carbon in a fair map as its part of the Lehigh valley, honestly the fact the current map doesn't have Carbon is an absolute disgrace for a "fair map" as Lehigh+ Northampton+ Carbon is perfectly 1 seat with 2010 pop +6k people.
I don't disagree on the particulars of the shape of Lehigh CD, even though I think that the current map, for sure, absolutely qualifies as a fair map. Lehigh+Northampton+Carbon is just too good a pairing to avoid, though for optimal results, it ought to be paired with Luzerne+Monroe+Lackawanna (with Pike being sent into a CD running along the New York state border).
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lfromnj
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« Reply #84 on: November 25, 2020, 01:49:16 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 01:52:28 AM by lfromnj »

The Lehigh seat should clearly have Carbon in a fair map as its part of the Lehigh valley, honestly the fact the current map doesn't have Carbon is an absolute disgrace for a "fair map" as Lehigh+ Northampton+ Carbon is perfectly 1 seat with 2010 pop +6k people.
I don't disagree on the particulars of the shape of Lehigh CD, even though I think that the current map, for sure, absolutely qualifies as a fair map. Lehigh+Northampton+Carbon is just too good a pairing to avoid, though for optimal results, it ought to be paired with Luzerne+Monroe+Lackawanna (with Pike being sent into a CD running along the New York state border).

Yes those 3 counties are also perfectly whole and only needed an extra 500 people and thats what should have been done. Pike isn't ideal but whatever.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #85 on: November 25, 2020, 01:50:21 AM »

Annoyingly, a fair 17-district map in PA only produces 5 Safe D districts (2 in Philly, MontCo, DelCo, and Pittsburgh.) You may not like it (I certainly don't) but this is what peak fair map performance looks like:



I don't like this map, I'll be honest. A truly fair map starts with an AA Philly district, then applies the same principles we each used on our VA maps. I realize the tradition keeps the Bucks district the way it is, but let's not mistake tradition for equity.

What do you mean by "equity"
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #86 on: November 25, 2020, 01:53:05 AM »

Annoyingly, a fair 17-district map in PA only produces 5 Safe D districts (2 in Philly, MontCo, DelCo, and Pittsburgh.) You may not like it (I certainly don't) but this is what peak fair map performance looks like:



I don't like this map, I'll be honest. A truly fair map starts with an AA Philly district, then applies the same principles we each used on our VA maps. I realize the tradition keeps the Bucks district the way it is, but let's not mistake tradition for equity.

What do you mean by "equity"

Equity is what would make a fair map "fair". I.e., factoring in community integration, minority representation, and metropolitan association.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #87 on: November 25, 2020, 01:54:56 AM »

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander. There's obviously going to be 2 seats in Philly, just play around with them to make one clear black seat. You could maybe push for 2 by using the Delaware black parts but thats a big strech.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #88 on: November 25, 2020, 01:57:48 AM »

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander.
Even in a D gerrymander, Bucks shouldn't be split. A D gerry takes Bucks and gives it areas in southeastern Montgomery or snakes into more Dem parts of Philly; a fair map probably takes areas along the MontCo border; and an R gerry gives it far northeastern parts of MontCo.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #89 on: November 25, 2020, 02:03:13 AM »

Annoyingly, a fair 17-district map in PA only produces 5 Safe D districts (2 in Philly, MontCo, DelCo, and Pittsburgh.) You may not like it (I certainly don't) but this is what peak fair map performance looks like:



I don't like this map, I'll be honest. A truly fair map starts with an AA Philly district, then applies the same principles we each used on our VA maps. I realize the tradition keeps the Bucks district the way it is, but let's not mistake tradition for equity.

What do you mean by "equity"

Equity is what would make a fair map "fair". I.e., factoring in community integration, minority representation, and metropolitan association.

I mean, I think it does. It has the AA Philly seat, thr NE Philly seat, a Bucks seat, MontCo seat, and Delco seat. Every other Eastern PA seat is centered around a metro area (Lehigh Valley, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Reading, Lancaster, Harrisburg, and York.) Unfortunately, almost all these small metros are 55-45 GOP.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #90 on: November 25, 2020, 02:09:58 AM »

Tbh, splitting Bucks can only really be called a Dem hack gerrymander, not that splitting Bucks is a precondition for qualifying. The only grounds I can think of that could justify it internally is "Dems are badly served by Bucks being whole, let's hive off the southern part and create a Likely D seat out of it". I've never seen a GOPer, online or otherwise seriously propose splitting it either.
It is my view that any map that splits Bucks is not truly good as a rule, and is quite possibly trash. It just makes no sense, has no real utility, and creates two additional county splits by default, unless the seat avoids MontCo entirely (which is possible but rare in my experience).
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lfromnj
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« Reply #91 on: November 25, 2020, 02:10:39 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 02:15:41 AM by lfromnj »



If you want more minority representation Tongue
(red and yellow is a light GOP gerrymander btw for a winnable GOP seat pre 2018,although everything else was just done fairly or for creating 2 black seats, not my endorsed map. Anyway getting 2 black seats is possible and doesn't have any major partisan effect as it doesn't affect Houlahan's or Fitz's district who are the only swing Philly district.

also
@blarite, did you split the city of Pittsburgh?

I can't tell.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #92 on: November 25, 2020, 02:16:19 AM »

@blarite, did you split the city of Pittsburgh?

I can't tell.
From the looks of it, it doesn't.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #93 on: November 25, 2020, 02:22:50 AM »


28 seat PA.
Map was drawn with election data disabled. It was enabled after I finished drawing.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6a7f7896-dcf2-42d4-b7fc-8d7584f31e29
This is the DRA link.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #94 on: November 25, 2020, 02:24:12 AM »

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander. There's obviously going to be 2 seats in Philly, just play around with them to make one clear black seat. You could maybe push for 2 by using the Delaware black parts but thats a big strech.

Ok, but my argument was that tradition doesn't equate to fairness, so bringing up tradition as a counter-argument is...meaningless.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #95 on: November 25, 2020, 02:29:39 AM »

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander. There's obviously going to be 2 seats in Philly, just play around with them to make one clear black seat. You could maybe push for 2 by using the Delaware black parts but thats a big strech.

Ok, but my argument was that tradition doesn't equate to fairness, so bringing up tradition as a counter-argument is...meaningless.

Except you said community integrity was important and Bucks is an important community that should be kept together.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #96 on: November 25, 2020, 02:36:22 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 03:53:21 AM by Blairite »

And Bucks has been a district community like that for decades lol, its not gonna be split so you can have your D hack gerrymander. There's obviously going to be 2 seats in Philly, just play around with them to make one clear black seat. You could maybe push for 2 by using the Delaware black parts but thats a big strech.

Ok, but my argument was that tradition doesn't equate to fairness, so bringing up tradition as a counter-argument is...meaningless.

Except you said community integrity was important and Bucks is an important community that should be kept together.

Is it? I think it would be pretty easy to say that Lower Bucks is more connected with and demographically similar to NE Philly whereas Mid and Upper Bucks really belong with MontCo.

Granted, I think maps that split Bucks get really messy because of what they force in Philly and the Lehigh Valley, but I don't find Bucks a particularly compelling COI on its own merits.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #97 on: November 25, 2020, 02:36:41 AM »

Why would it be unfair to not split Bucks County?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #98 on: November 25, 2020, 02:39:52 AM »

@blarite, did you split the city of Pittsburgh?

Nope:

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #99 on: November 25, 2020, 02:49:18 AM »

Fun fact: on 17 seats and 2018 population estimates you can make a district from Monroe+Pike+Lackawanna+Luzerne, with a deviation of exactly 0 from quota.
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