2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Oryxslayer]

So I did a bit of playing around with the new population figures. Even with the lost CD, it's remarkable just how well things work oud. SEPA's growth when compared to the mass losses in the interior means that the region kept its districts where it matters. So here's how I think the seats that are not titanium GOP fall, assuming that the court will once again draw a map that corrects PA's geography for the Dems:

Lamb running statewide is a blessing in disguise, a blessing so prominent that I had heard rumors of Doyle retiring way back in 2018 if Lamb didn't go upwards. You now only have one Congressman from south and central Allegheny, which means there is no more need for Mt. Lebanon arm. Instead one can do a North-South cut loosely following the Ohio and Monongahela, giving the old PA17 all the towns north of White Oak. Old PA18 shifts rightwards, which gives you more breathing rom to add less Democratic areas but maintain the seats marginality. One of these additions will be the New Kensington area in Westmoreland, so that the old PA14 in Fayette-Greene-Washington-Westmorland-Somerset isn't overpopulated, and the the rest either can come from New Castle or Southern Butler like presently.

PA-10 has no need to change, pop in the South-Central towns meant it can get away with swapping around a few towns. Any larger changes would be the reunification of Cumberland and dropping a bit of rural York, or the Dem Gerry that added Lancaster to the seat - if it's not used elsewhere - in exchange for red turf.

The western seats fall in two general ways if one is looking to preserve the Democrats. It all revolves around Chester and Bucks: Chester and PA-06 are fine but her confined Delaware neighbor is not, and Bucks has lot dropping in share of the overall SEPA population.

-If we approach this thing from the perspective of preserving the present PA-06, here's how things rotate. PA-05 remains a Delaware seat, takes in the Montgomery and Philadelphia surplus's, but still needs 1-2 townships from Chester that are available to give. Lack of pop to the west means Bucks must go North and take in towns south of the Lehigh river in the two northern counties. PA-07 grabs all of Monroe, and PA-08 slides towards the GOP.

-Here's how things fall if we take the aim of preserving PA-01. The county can take all the necessary pop it needs from Philadelphia and Montgomery, but there is some remainder. PA-05 goes westwards into Chester. PA-06, if we assume a Dem favoring map, becomes a triangle district. The Main Line and US30 corridor another one end, Reading another, and Lancaster the final corner. PA-07 is flexible and could grab the remainder from Montgomery in Pottstown if it drops some north county suburbs for PA-08, could maintain it's present arrangement, can eat north Bucks so that Bucks takes the surplus, etc. Either way, this preserves PA-08's present GOP lean, and could get more Dem if it gets all of the Monroe.

[Nyvin]

Something like this? 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3d91ae72-035c-49d8-920b-d44012d3ea2d

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Republicans lose a seat somewhere between the current 12, 15, and 16 districts, but that's pretty much inevitable in any normal map.   They probably gain PA-8 in exchange, again, probably inevitable. 

Dems keep most of the rest that they have except maybe Lamb's current district, trends are good in that area between northern Allegheny and southern Butler though.  Is PA-4 going into Berks like that acceptable or will they have to get that ~140k somewhere else?

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think really anyone should be thinking about adding the north Part of Berks to any of the SEPA seats, unless Berks is becoming the anchor for a new district. That area has more in common with the post-industrial areas to her north and it doesn't exactly work to the Dems advantage like one assumes the court will prefer.



If one is looking to preserve the whole-Chester PA-06, then you shouldn't have to send PA-04 any more northwards than presently, and these cuts as shown can be swapped for a PA-05 cut into Chester which is then cycled through back to Berks through PA-06. It's a county that can anchor a full district. The burden instead should fall on PA-01 who needs the pop, and there is a fairly natural arrangement below the Lehigh river.



Adding Democratic Kutztown and the entirety of Monroe basically fills out PA-07, with the rest coming naturally from the excess of PA-08 under these lines. Downside is that under these lines PA-08 basically becomes a GOP flip, if not in 2022 definitely later down the line, which might prompt the court to use Lancaster for PA-10 to counteract the movement - if they go for this style of alignment.

[Torie]

The PA high court may be Dem, but in the case of a deadlock, below is to my mind the most reasonable least change map from the one the court drew in 2018, and the Dems have a problem. It looks like the Dems might lose 2 seats and the Pubs pick up 1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/64b8193a-0849-45ac-805a-b004e03fe853

[Nyvin]

Here's mine after taking away PA-4's extension in Berks

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f6919645-5ded-4fee-b55a-9a9e46a067d9



In this case PA-8 is definitely gone.   Lamb's and Houlahan's seats are still winnable by Democrats though.

[Devils30]

Here's mine after taking away PA-4's extension in Berks

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f6919645-5ded-4fee-b55a-9a9e46a067d9



In this case PA-8 is definitely gone.   Lamb's and Houlahan's seats are still winnable by Democrats though.

Dems would be smart to propose a plan sacrificing PA-8 but making 7 and 17 bluer. Since the PA Supreme Court is Dem, see if they will be cool with giving 17 a part of Pittsburgh. Also look into the possibility of giving 10 an arm into the city of Lancaster.

[BoiseBoy]

PA inmates will be counted in their home districts, not where they are incarcerated. This is for the state assembly and not for congressional maps.

https://apnews.com/article/prisons-redistricting-a353d8ef6295b62e8dd835a92fb96a6e

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c5ab2031-c4f9-465b-8425-c5aa514a4fff

I tried a PA map following 2020 data being released, and I'm quite happy with it, made some D leaning decisions, and surprisingly was able to keep Lamb's district winnable for a future Democratic candidate (probably not 2022 though). Also population growth in one or both of Chester and Berks means that the 6th can take a lot less of Berks than expected pre-release, which helps Democrats there. The most partisan decision here is probably to reach across Southern Montgomery to grab deep blue towns and bring Fitz's seat to Clinton+5, given Biden's sizable gains in Bucks County, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a Biden+double digits seat. Overall it's a 9-8 R map on 2016 data, but the 16th (Trump+2), 7th (Clinton+1), 1st (Clinton+5), and 6th (Clinton+5) are all very competitive seats, maybe not the 6th given the large Democratic shift in Chester County in 2020, but the rest should all be competitive. Also Cartwright took a big hit and moved to Trump+13, but not much to do to save him honestly, Democrats would benefit if he was cut loose, as it makes the map come together well, and saving Wild is just far more easier.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1440332356578013193?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1440332356578013193?s=20

This panel is effectively 3D/2R because the State Supreme Court (partisan elections, 5D/2R) appoints the tiebreaker, right?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1440332356578013193?s=20

This panel is effectively 3D/2R because the State Supreme Court (partisan elections, 5D/2R) appoints the tiebreaker, right?

Yeah State leg panel is D, so those maps are changing a lot. Cong doesn't use this but we all expect maps to get kicked upwards anyway.

[Non Swing Voter]

The PA high court may be Dem, but in the case of a deadlock, below is to my mind the most reasonable least change map from the one the court drew in 2018, and the Dems have a problem. It looks like the Dems might lose 2 seats and the Pubs pick up 1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/64b8193a-0849-45ac-805a-b004e03fe853

Why would we assume they'd do this just because it's least change?  Is there any kind of rule in their constitution that says that should be a factor?  If they are losing a full district then they are going to have to make some big changes regardless.

[Torie]

Least change is a protocol, used most particularly by federal courts. PA is a state court issue most probably, but the same court drew the last map, and it would be a starting point, based on the choices it made last time. That is the "why," but yes, the court can do whatever it wants, and it's not a law.

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

[MT Treasurer]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Not even pretending that you want fair maps anymore, huh?

Note that someone like him would be considered an "independent" on the redistricting commissions proposed by the For the People Act.

[S019]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Not even pretending that you want fair maps anymore, huh?

Note that someone like him would be considered an "independent" on the redistricting commissions proposed by the For the People Act.

I would gladly take independent commissions in every state, but as long as Republicans gerrymander, Democrats should not unilaterally disarm.

[BoiseBoy]

If Matt Cartwright doesn't get a favorable district, he says he may retire (which would make PA-08 a guaranteed R pickup).

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2021/10/07/pelosis-majority-crumbles-democrat-matt-cartwright-hints-retirement-redistricting/

[ctherainbow]

Yeah, I’m gonna go with my personal conversation with him and his team about redistricting over Breitbart on this one.  Doesn’t really jive with the fact that he’s been touring the red counties adjoining his district, prepping the local county Dem parties to slug it out if his district gets redder.

[Nyvin]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Not even pretending that you want fair maps anymore, huh?

Note that someone like him would be considered an "independent" on the redistricting commissions proposed by the For the People Act.

If Senate Republicans want to pass a national reform for redistricting they're more than welcome to.

[wbrocks67]

Is it possible to shore up Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright?

In theory I'd love if PA-01 could become bluer but the unfortunate fact is that it's already lean blue but Fitz still has a hold on it.

[Sol]

Is it possible to shore up Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright?

In theory I'd love if PA-01 could become bluer but the unfortunate fact is that it's already lean blue but Fitz still has a hold on it.

You kind of have to axe one or the other unfortunately--or give both somewhat competitive districts. PA-08 doesn't really have any adjacent Democratic areas except the Lehigh Valley.

[compucomp]

Is it possible to shore up Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright?

In theory I'd love if PA-01 could become bluer but the unfortunate fact is that it's already lean blue but Fitz still has a hold on it.

You kind of have to axe one or the other unfortunately--or give both somewhat competitive districts. PA-08 doesn't really have any adjacent Democratic areas except the Lehigh Valley.

If Dems had full control, they could use the Lehigh Valley to shore up PA-8 and then shore up PA-7 by moving into it some parts of Montgomery County (PA-4) or draw a tendril to add Reading. This breaks up communities of interest though so it would be a D gerrymander, and R's would be unlikely to agree to it without compensation. Wasserman suggested a possible deal where Conor Lamb's district is cut in exchange for this configuration in eastern PA.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my attempt to make a fair as possible PA map. It's 10 Trump - 7 Clinton composition. I'm pretty confidant that Biden won PA-1 in 2020. So if one day DRA adds the 2020 prez data, it would become a 9R - 8D map. No city/town is split except for Philly.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/03a2ccc7-f995-4b96-a54b-68aefbdbe42e

[Mr.Phips]

I don’t know why Dems aren’t trying to get Republicans to agree to an independent redistricting commission here given the Damocles sword of the state Supreme Court drawing a Dem gerrymander of the legislature otherwise.

Or are Dems just too stupid to think ahead (2031) here?

[sting in the rafters]

2012-2018 composite (10d/7r, median district D+3.89%)


2016 pres (7d/10r, median district R+6.45%)





2018 sen (11d/6r, median district D+10.25%)




Couple of quick notes

-As a Dtown native splitting Chesco is a no-go and I'll argue the Lancaster Ave corridor and Piedmont forests make up enough of a collective community to keep it together. Still looking for a better solution regarding the
-Tried to maximize competitive districts. This meant helping Cartwright at Wild's Expense by giving her all of the Jim Thorpe area.
-Gave the BucksCo district a portion of NE Philly as its more suburban/culturally similar to nearby Bensalem.
-Is the lower Susqehanna valley district a little D-friendly? Yeah, though I felt it it would be truer to the character to have the mountainous portion of Dauphin in a different district. A true gerrymander would include Lancaster and less of the Dutch country farmland.
-Feedback is as always appreciated