2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[dpmapper]

Why would the 17th go into Lawrence and Mercer counties before taking parts of Butler?  That doesn't make any COI sense. 

I'd also try to get eastern Cumberland County into 10/11 rather than Adams.  It definitely fits better with the York/Lancaster/Harrisburg area than with the counties to the west. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes because now seperating Pittsburgh from its inner ring suburbs is fair.

Just keep showing everyone how you make "fair" maps.

PA won't have a fair map though.  It'll have a D-leaning courtmander.  I see nothing unrealistic about separating Pittsburgh from it's suburbs, although I can see why Republicans wouldn't like that

[SevenEleven]

Yes because now seperating Pittsburgh from its inner ring suburbs is fair.

Just keep showing everyone how you make "fair" maps.

PA won't have a fair map though.  It'll have a D-leaning courtmander.  I see nothing unrealistic about separating Pittsburgh from it's suburbs, although I can see why Republicans wouldn't like that

Its pretty clear lfromnj will say anything at any time so long as it happens to benefit the republican party at that moment.

[Sol]

Here's a slight-dem favoring incumbent protection gerrymander which might have a chance of happening, given that Dems have a slight upper hand. Houlahan and Lamb are shorn up, while Cartwright and Wild are thrown together in an extremely fair fight safe D district (literally about half of each person's seat).

Additionally, I made a district which splits Bucks County (!) which shores up Fitzpatrick.

Sorry for not including photos; not posting on my usual computer so I'm trying to "leave no trace."

Still don't think Fitz will want Bucks split especially as the lower part was barely to the left of the county anyway.

Other than that East PA is fine for your goals. I guess the main argument will be with Lamb's district?

Also remove the city of York from the Harrisburg district and give it to Smucker if you are going incumbent protection.

Yeah, that's why I drew two maps since I figured splitting Bucks might would be a bridge too far.

Wrt: York, the idea was to basically preserve the current partisan balance, and since Perry's district gets more R anyway I think it probably is alright.

[lfromnj]

Here's a slight-dem favoring incumbent protection gerrymander which might have a chance of happening, given that Dems have a slight upper hand. Houlahan and Lamb are shorn up, while Cartwright and Wild are thrown together in an extremely fair fight safe D district (literally about half of each person's seat).

Additionally, I made a district which splits Bucks County (!) which shores up Fitzpatrick.

Sorry for not including photos; not posting on my usual computer so I'm trying to "leave no trace."

Still don't think Fitz will want Bucks split especially as the lower part was barely to the left of the county anyway.

Other than that East PA is fine for your goals. I guess the main argument will be with Lamb's district?

Also remove the city of York from the Harrisburg district and give it to Smucker if you are going incumbent protection.

Yeah, that's why I drew two maps since I figured splitting Bucks might would be a bridge too far.

Wrt: York, the idea was to basically preserve the current partisan balance, and since Perry's district gets more R anyway I think it probably is alright.

That's fair enough although if Dems really want that Lamb district they probably should just concede the Likely R Harrisburg district.

Also might want to give parts of rural Chester to Scanlon while giving Christy that Montgomery part with Lower Merion.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/94312cca-7c15-4533-b9c0-110730c6c68a
There we go made those 2 changes to even the partisanship between 5 and 6 along with 10 and 11. Seems like a pretty reasonable and fair trade starting from your map?

Also FWIW Cartwright did have the blue parts of Northhampton in his old district . However Wild might run for senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes because now seperating Pittsburgh from its inner ring suburbs is fair.

Just keep showing everyone how you make "fair" maps.

PA won't have a fair map though.  It'll have a D-leaning courtmander.  I see nothing unrealistic about separating Pittsburgh from it's suburbs, although I can see why Republicans wouldn't like that

Its pretty clear lfromnj will say anything at any time so long as it happens to benefit the republican party at that moment.

I think that’s a bit too harsh tbh.  I think the possibility of Allegheny being split like that probably just caught him a bit off-guard.

[lfromnj]

Sev what are you trying to draw?
A  D court map or an actually fair map?

[Sol]

Here's a slight-dem favoring incumbent protection gerrymander which might have a chance of happening, given that Dems have a slight upper hand. Houlahan and Lamb are shorn up, while Cartwright and Wild are thrown together in an extremely fair fight safe D district (literally about half of each person's seat).

Additionally, I made a district which splits Bucks County (!) which shores up Fitzpatrick.

Sorry for not including photos; not posting on my usual computer so I'm trying to "leave no trace."

Still don't think Fitz will want Bucks split especially as the lower part was barely to the left of the county anyway.

Other than that East PA is fine for your goals. I guess the main argument will be with Lamb's district?

Also remove the city of York from the Harrisburg district and give it to Smucker if you are going incumbent protection.

Yeah, that's why I drew two maps since I figured splitting Bucks might would be a bridge too far.

Wrt: York, the idea was to basically preserve the current partisan balance, and since Perry's district gets more R anyway I think it probably is alright.

That's fair enough although if Dems really want that Lamb district they probably should just concede the Likely R Harrisburg district.

Also might want to give parts of rural Chester to Scanlon while giving Christy that Montgomery part with Lower Merion.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/94312cca-7c15-4533-b9c0-110730c6c68a
There we go made those 2 changes to even the partisanship between 5 and 6 along with 10 and 11. Seems like a pretty reasonable and fair trade starting from your map?

Oooh, that's a good point. I like!

[S019]

Made some modest changes to 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17.

Other than the tri cut of Berks, I actually really like this map, I might also consider having 14 drop that little bit of Allegheny, so it is only split twice, as for SEPA, even the D court will probably extend the 4th into Chester, which will leave Houlahan with a tough seat (by forcing her to take almost all of Bucks), but given Chester's trend, it should be one that Democrats get back before 2026 or so (hypothetical seat would be Trump+3 in 2016 and may have actually voted for Biden this year). Also pairing Bucks with lower Montgomery is a good decision and one that I hope that the court ends up making.

[SevenEleven]

Sev what are you trying to draw?
A  D court map or an actually fair map?

It's a fair map.

[SevenEleven]

D gerrymander Lfromnj keeps asking for.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

D gerrymander Lfromnj keeps asking for.

We should be so lucky, but I doubt the court goes for that Lancaster district.

[SevenEleven]

D gerrymander Lfromnj keeps asking for.

We should be so lucky, but I doubt the court goes for that Harrisburg district.

Court would never, this is why you gotta win state legislatures.

[lfromnj]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

[S019]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

Why is tiny Schuylkill being split, Lackawanna+Luzerne belong together, how do we have a seat going from Scranton to Williamsport? Also a tri cut of Chester is not needed, just extend the DelCo seat into Chester and pair the rest with Berks.

[Sol]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

Why is tiny Schuylkill being split, Lackawanna+Luzerne belong together, how do we have a seat going from Scranton to Williamsport? Also a tri cut of Chester is not needed, just extend the DelCo seat into Chester and pair the rest with Berks.

I'd recommend taking a closer look at that post.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

[muon2]

Made some modest changes to 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17.

Much better IMO. I count the minimum of 16 chops in 13 counties with Allegheny, Berks, and Philadelphia with 2 chops and the rest with 1 chop. That aspect looks good from the criteria. Were you able to keep municipal chops to a minimum, too? I know they aren't always obvious unless you want to read the title of each precinct. May I ask what the biggest deviations were plus and minus from the ideal?

[SevenEleven]

Made some modest changes to 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17.

Much better IMO. I count the minimum of 16 chops in 13 counties with Allegheny, Berks, and Philadelphia with 2 chops and the rest with 1 chop. That aspect looks good from the criteria. Were you able to keep municipal chops to a minimum, too? I know they aren't always obvious unless you want to read the title of each precinct. May I ask what the biggest deviations were plus and minus from the ideal?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/364fb604-2395-4513-8981-25ff353debed

Also, fun fact: the Scranton is district on my D gerrymander is four whole counties with no cuts or additional precincts, and has exact population. That obviously won't be the case when the real numbers are available, but hey.

[muon2]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

It looks like you have a CD with just Dauphin and York, but that would have too large a population deviation from the quota. The colors make it hard to tell, so is there a chop in Cumberland or somewhere else to bring the population of the Harrisburg CD up towards quota?

It looks like you should be able to shuffle population between the Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and State College CDs to eliminate one of the chops (probably the one in Lycoming).

[lfromnj]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

It looks like you have a CD with just Dauphin and York, but that would have too large a population deviation from the quota. The colors make it hard to tell, so is there a chop in Cumberland or somewhere else to bring the population of the Harrisburg CD up towards quota?

It looks like you should be able to shuffle population between the Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and State College CDs to eliminate one of the chops (probably the one in Lycoming).

There are a few towns in Cumberland I took.

[muon2]

Made some modest changes to 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17.

Much better IMO. I count the minimum of 16 chops in 13 counties with Allegheny, Berks, and Philadelphia with 2 chops and the rest with 1 chop. That aspect looks good from the criteria. Were you able to keep municipal chops to a minimum, too? I know they aren't always obvious unless you want to read the title of each precinct. May I ask what the biggest deviations were plus and minus from the ideal?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/364fb604-2395-4513-8981-25ff353debed

Also, fun fact: the Scranton is district on my D gerrymander is four whole counties with no cuts or additional precincts, and has exact population. That obviously won't be the case when the real numbers are available, but hey.

Thanks. I see deviations from -1899 to +1465 for a range of 3364 or 0.45%.

If you mean the Lackawanna/Luzerne/Monroe/Pike district, then yes I saw it. It's actually in my model plan. If a whole county CD comes with exactly the population quota, it would be hard for a court to reject it. Even some small deviation is permitted if you can make the case for strict adherence to other neutral standards and there was no better way to meet those standards. I'll be watching for such opportunities when the 2020 Census data is released.

[lfromnj]

Here, reduced that chop in Lycoming. I think I got 16 chops.

[muon2]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

It looks like you have a CD with just Dauphin and York, but that would have too large a population deviation from the quota. The colors make it hard to tell, so is there a chop in Cumberland or somewhere else to bring the population of the Harrisburg CD up towards quota?

It looks like you should be able to shuffle population between the Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and State College CDs to eliminate one of the chops (probably the one in Lycoming).

There are a few towns in Cumberland I took.

Were you able to keep municipalities whole (except of course for Philly)?

I'll also ask the question I asked sev. What was your population range (difference between largest and smallest CDs)?

[lfromnj]

Anyway working with Sev's principles of a fair map I worked hard and finished this fair map. The court will likely not enact this though.

sarcasm

It looks like you have a CD with just Dauphin and York, but that would have too large a population deviation from the quota. The colors make it hard to tell, so is there a chop in Cumberland or somewhere else to bring the population of the Harrisburg CD up towards quota?

It looks like you should be able to shuffle population between the Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and State College CDs to eliminate one of the chops (probably the one in Lycoming).

There are a few towns in Cumberland I took.

Were you able to keep municipalities whole (except of course for Philly)?

I'll also ask the question I asked sev. What was your population range (difference between largest and smallest CDs)?

1500 to -1200. Probably could reduce it a bit further. it a bit further but its good enough. Did try to keep cities whole as possible although DRA doesn't give all of them.