Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1

[Frenchrepublican]

Crazy that Fox News polls are the by far the worse for Trump

[Frenchrepublican]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

[Frenchrepublican]

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.

Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.

I like you’re assumptions that only Trump will see a base increase relative to 2018 and that he will do better in the suburbs because well you say so. Real serious analysis 👍

Well, if we believe MuLaw Polls (historically far more accurate and done by people who actually know this state) Trump is now more popular in WOW counties than the share of the vote he received here four years ago. According to them Trump had last month a 57% approval in southeastern WI outside of  Milwaukee while he received only 54% of the vote in 2016 in this area, that’s why he will also certainly improve upon his 2016 margins in WOW counties

[Frenchrepublican]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.

No, not particularly. I mean, look at the Glengariff poll from yesterday, their numbers are not great for Trump and I’m not trying to discredit them, the problem with Fox News polls is that you have a pattern as their polls always look very bad for Trump, and it’s not just their statewide polls but also their national polls. Now, maybe Fox News polls are accurate and Trump will lose the PV by a high single-digit margin and will lose WI by 5, still as of now I’m just a bit sceptic about a such idea, Trump had a 48/50 approval rate in WI per 2018 exit polls and MuLaw polls tend to show a far closer race in WI than Fox News ones and when you look at the record of both pollsters it’s clear that MuLaw ones are more trustable