Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1 (user search)
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  Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1  (Read 2914 times)
I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« on: January 09, 2020, 06:35:39 PM »
« edited: January 09, 2020, 06:40:13 PM by NYC Millennial Minority »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer - all by over five points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_election#Polling_2

also note that Walker was behind in many of polls only to come close in the end

and do I even need to bring up Trump's massive overperformance in Wisconsin when he won the first time?
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2020, 06:44:15 PM »

These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2020, 06:52:08 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2020, 07:27:11 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 08:44:06 PM by YE »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.

It's a well established fact that FOX polls underestimate GOP performance in states that aren't Nevada.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2020, 08:48:39 PM »

Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...




I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2020, 09:55:41 PM »

Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I've probably the most ripped on Atlas user of BOTH 2018 and 2019, despite being more accurate in my predictions than many on here.

Internet hatred affects me as much as how a light drizzle affects an ocean.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2020, 10:36:31 PM »


I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?

You remember incorrectly, I predicted 225D-210R but was screwed over by lazy douchenozzles like Dan Donovan who took their seats for granted. Much better than 'Blue Tsunami' predictors who were at around 250D or more!

I was more correct about Florida's Senate election, Indiana's senate election, and Missouri's senate election much more than the average Atlas user (they said Nelson would win by mid single digits and Donnelly and McCaskill would win in squakers; whereas I said Florida would be close and Donnelly and McCaskill were going down by decent margins).

Beto surprised me though, but at the same time I was more accurate about North Dakota and Tennessee.
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