GA : Trump leads everybody according to Mason Dixon

[pbrower2a]

Democrats don't want to believe it but there in for a massive shock in 2020.

Trump may be gaining now, as I have seen in polls of Arizona, Iowa, and Michigan. I do not predict trends.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He has the same approvals as Obama and Bush W. That's why the case for Buden has dimished greatly, he has been leading Trump in all the key states like OH, IA and FL. Now, Buttigieg or Bernie can duplicate the 278 EC

I guess, there goes TX

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The poll is a little two white, it's 62% when it should be 60% or something. Other than that the crosstabs seem ok.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah, Arizona is primed to flip. Georgia might take a few more cycles.

I mean, this is literally the only poll showing Trump winning GA decisively, but okay...

The other ones were sh**t, as we told you. 60% college educated Georgia? An electorate with more registered Ds than Republicans? Really?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Georgia is the equivalent to Virginia for Democrats. You want to think it will be a competitive/close race, but it will end up going for Trump unless the economy crashes prior to the election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, Arizona is primed to flip. Georgia might take a few more cycles.

I mean, this is literally the only poll showing Trump winning GA decisively, but okay...

The other ones were sh**t, as we told you. 60% college educated Georgia? An electorate with more registered Ds than Republicans? Really?

Trump isnt gonna do better in GA than Romney though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2014, we saw the samething,  when Michelle Nunn was close and lost to Perdue. The impeachment trial hangover isnt helping Dems either, it appears that Pelosi is backing down, when she has no case to begin with, without a whistleblower

[Hollywood]

Come on.  There's really no excuse for losing this bad on election day with that kind of turnout.  Could you do better with black voters?  I'm thinking turnout is mediocre, because 15% of African Americans either voted Trump or undecided.  I keep finding similarities with the demographics of 2004 with the last three weeks of polling data.  It's actually kinda poetic that Biden asked Kerry to come help him in Iowa.  

[YE]

Come on.  There's really no excuse for losing this bad on election day with that kind of turnout.  Could you do better with black voters?  I'm thinking turnout is mediocre, because 15% of African Americans either voted Trump or undecided.  I keep finding similarities with the demographics of 2004 with the last three weeks of polling data.  It's actually kinda poetic that Biden asked Kerry to come help him in Iowa.  

It’s a poll by a mediocre polling firm 10 months out.

[Hollywood]

Come on.  There's really no excuse for losing this bad on election day with that kind of turnout.  Could you do better with black voters?  I'm thinking turnout is mediocre, because 15% of African Americans either voted Trump or undecided.  I keep finding similarities with the demographics of 2004 with the last three weeks of polling data.  It's actually kinda poetic that Biden asked Kerry to come help him in Iowa.  

It’s a poll by a mediocre polling firm 10 months out.

Yeah.  Just making time fly.   

[President Johnson]

What year is this? 2004? Throw it in the trash.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah, Arizona is primed to flip. Georgia might take a few more cycles.

I mean, this is literally the only poll showing Trump winning GA decisively, but okay...

The other ones were sh**t, as we told you. 60% college educated Georgia? An electorate with more registered Ds than Republicans? Really?

Trump isnt gonna do better in GA than Romney though.

Yeah, do agree on that. However, he's also not going to lose it by 6, and it's not Lean D

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, Arizona is primed to flip. Georgia might take a few more cycles.

I mean, this is literally the only poll showing Trump winning GA decisively, but okay...

The other ones were sh**t, as we told you. 60% college educated Georgia? An electorate with more registered Ds than Republicans? Really?

Trump isnt gonna do better in GA than Romney though.

Yeah, do agree on that. However, he's also not going to lose it by 6, and it's not Lean D

No it’s clearly a Lean R state though not Likely R (that’s Texas)

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't imagine that the state votes for Trump more than it did in 2016 either, but I can totally see it still being just out of reach for Democrats. I've always been bearish on Democratic chances here, and probably always will until it finally flips. That's not to say that they shouldn't still at least try to contest it, at least a little, and especially with the Senate races, but Arizona is clearly the Romney-Trump state with the best potential to flip still.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

A few things to say to the naysayers

-In their one 2018 Gubernatorial poll, they had Abrams+3 over Kemp. Granted it was Abrams: 40%, Kemp: 37% with lots of undecideds, but still.... :https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling_4

-In their 2016 polls they consistently UNDERESTIMATED Trump, sometimes by a lot: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

-In 2019 they practically nailed Kentucky

-Trump is favored to win in Georgia anyway. There is no realistic situation where the Dems lose competitive states like FL/NC/AZ/MI/WI/PA but get saved by winning Georgia. IMO the most likely path to a 2020 Dem win is through retaining all the Hillary states and attaining MI/WI/PA at the minimum; AZ/FL/NC are 'bonus' points, and I'd even bet on AZ voting at least two points to the right of the most D favored state of the MIWIPA trio given that Trump has won back quite a few 2016 Trump skeptical right-leaning voters.

[Hammy]

There is no way the Democratic nominee will lose GA by ~10 points.

High undecideds, a reason why I look at the numbers moreso than the margin. GOP is above 50% which leaves any doubt that they're in the lead at the moment.

[Adam Griffin]

Setting aside usual and simplistic complaints about "Party ID", most everything about this poll tilts in favor of the GOP. No one element is necessarily off by much and/or unusual in the context of early-cycle GOP polling, but it's "death by a thousand cuts" type stuff in terms of accuracy:

• Gender is substantially off (51/49 here; 55/45 in 2016 & 2018)
• Age is a bit off (among 65 and ups in particular)
• White % is a bit off
• Black support is artificially low (common in early polls, but hides underlying D floor)

Combined, that is offsetting the margin by 4-6 points depending on the exact candidate matchup. Something like:

Trump 50, Biden 47
Trump 50, Sanders 46
Trump 50, Buttigieg 46
Trump 51, Warren 43