SC/NV/WI-Fox News: Biden leads, Steyer surging

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are biased towards Biden, obviously, these polls dont contemplate a surge by Bernie should he win IA and NH. Ignore these polls until IA and NH votes. Biden isnt winning WI

[Bojack Horseman]

LMAO at Steyer being in second place

[LeBron]

Stop. Polling. Bloomberg.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Can you imagine the chaos if these really end up being the results?? Who even drops out in this scenario?

[Queen Isuelt]

Steyer has spent 11m in south carolina and 11m in nevada. The nearest person to him is Warren with 1.2m so like Buttigieg has done in Iowa he's outspent the field 10 to 1.

If Buttigieg can do it why can't Steyer.

If your in South Carolina apparently Steyer bought every billboard between Charleston and Savannah (100miles)

[libertpaulian]

Can you imagine the chaos if these really end up being the results?? Who even drops out in this scenario?

If early state polling over the next month is consistent with this FOX News poll, Pete drops out after NH, and Warren drops out after NV if she can't get to second there.

Pete's not going to allow his political epitaph to read "I got gutted in South Carolina on my first try for President."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox polls have been the most biased polls towards Biden, I don't buy it that Biden is ahead in the primary by that much

[Yellowhammer]

It would be fun to see Dems self-immolate with the Steyer Fire

[I Can Now Die Happy]

It would be fun to see Dems self-immolate with the Steyer Fire

Imagine if Bloomberg or Steyer does better than Bernie/Warren in your great state of Alabama

Imagine if they prevent Biden from having enough delegates to win

LOL

[libertpaulian]

If Steyer truly does become viable, brokered convention it is!!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Guess stealing Kamala’s data + unlimited resources to advertise worked out perfect for Steyer

[Senator Spark]

Tom Steyer? Seriously? If this is true, the nominee will be anybody's best guess.

[Dr. Arch]

-rubs eyes-

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tom Steyer surging, great news

[The Mikado]

I mean, Tom Steyer's not the worst candidate out of the 14 remaining.

Far from the best, but...I'd rank him 8 out of 14 if I had to rank candidates by "if I could just magically wish this person into the Oval Office, who would I pick?"

[Gone to Carolina]

Morning Consult has been showing Steyer at 10% in "early states" for months. I thought it was complete malarkey, but there could actually be some truth to it.

Yeah doing some quick math, multiplying Hillary's 2016 vote totals by Steyer's average in the 538 trackers in each of the first four states you get Steyer having about 7.1% of the vote. Not too shabby for MC if that's true.

[Tender Branson]

LOL.

Probably done during heavy Steyer advertising in those states ...

[Adam Griffin]

If you had both Steyer and Sanders essentially on the favorable side of viability statewide and Biden at ~35, that could potentially change a lot. Of course both non-Biden candidates would likely be missing out on any delegates in multiple congressional districts if they're both only at ~15, but holding Biden's net delegate victory over [at this point, Sanders] to 20 or so in a state where conventional wisdom would suggest he'd net 40+ delegates would be a coup.

Even better for non-Biden candidates: given Steyer's media market-reliant campaign strategy and the fact that virtually nobody is voting for him outside of seeing his ads and his increase in name rec, his support may be very evenly distributed across the state. Steyer falling just short of viability statewide (as shown in this poll) could result in him getting like 13-14% statewide and not having much tangible deviation from that across congressional districts, earning him next to no delegates. That obviously would create a more favorable delegate allocation for [again, at this point, Sanders presumably], earning more like 30% of the delegates rather than 20%.

I do find it very unlikely that Biden is sitting at 35 unless Steyer's ads are stealing his voters. Nevertheless, it's something to consider if additional polls show him doing this poorly and Steyer doing this well in the state.

[bilaps]

I do find it very unlikely that Biden is sitting at 35 unless Steyer's ads are stealing his voters. Nevertheless, it's something to consider if additional polls show him doing this poorly and Steyer doing this well in the state.

I don't think It's very unlikely if he's polling around 20 or 20+ in IA and NH and his national numbers are around 30. And we've had couple of polls before the holidays showing him closet to 25 nationaly.

[Adam Griffin]

I do find it very unlikely that Biden is sitting at 35 unless Steyer's ads are stealing his voters. Nevertheless, it's something to consider if additional polls show him doing this poorly and Steyer doing this well in the state.

I don't think It's very unlikely if he's polling around 20 or 20+ in IA and NH and his national numbers are around 30. And we've had couple of polls before the holidays showing him closet to 25 nationaly.

National polls are useless when examining Southern black support, which has backed the inevitable winner of every Democratic presidential primary since 1992. The combination of share of the electorate and bloc-voting propensity more or less disconnects the modern South from national trends; the most recent example is how Sanders basically held Clinton to a stalemale outside the South, but lost due to losing the South 2:1 in delegates. Biden is and always was the favorite for this group (as I've been saying for 2+ years), with his floor in a field this large always being 45-50% (in a two-way race, it's more like 70% - and can easily go higher).

In SC specifically, given that black voters will likely comprise 55-60% of primary voters, it's unlikely Biden could be at 35% unless 1) Democratic primary racial polarization not seen in this century has somehow re-emerged or 2) Steyer's ads are having a substantial impact. It takes a very special set of circumstances to break the dynamic of Southern black voters backing the candidate with the most establishment backing and/or name recognition, which tend to be one and the same (see 2008 for an example of what it takes to deconstruct this; even then, by the time SC was ready to fall from Clinton's grasp, Obama managed to achieve rapidly growing establishment support and comparable name rec, so it's not really even like he broke "the formula" so to speak).

[redjohn]

It would be very bad for Biden if he only got 36% of the vote in SC. I expect him to do better than 36%, though. 36% in SC=low 40s% across the south, which would be underwhelming margins in a region he wants to rack up a delegate lead.

Nevada will definitely be close between Biden and Sanders; Sanders, however, has shown strength among Latino voters and it being a caucus-style makes me think his chances are underestimated in Nevada.

Like others have said, the race will probably basically be a two-person contest by Wisconsin, in which case it will vote for Sanders if the race is Biden v Sanders. Hillary got crushed in WI last cycle, just barely winning a single county in the entire state. Biden will do slightly better than her, but he's by no means beloved by the state's Democratic voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are Fox polls, from the same media that calls Biden Ukraine, they always been biased towards Biden. These polls shouldnt discourage people from voting from someone other than Biden

[The Mikado]

Remember, that SC poll had 13% undecided, so (crude, I know) if you just reallocate that by the vote share the candidate already has, Biden's looking closer to 40% than 35%. 13% of people aren't going to the polls to vote for "No One."

[redjohn]

Remember, that SC poll had 13% undecided, so (crude, I know) if you just reallocate that by the vote share the candidate already has, Biden's looking closer to 40% than 35%. 13% of people aren't going to the polls to vote for "No One."

Yeah, that's true. Still, 40% in SC might not be enough to make up for the optics problem if Biden loses IA and NH. If he wins NV, it's probably fine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Bernie wins IA and NH, he will camp out west and win NV, CA and CO in the next trio states