MI-Glengariff: Trump trails all Dems (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:30:35 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  MI-Glengariff: Trump trails all Dems (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: MI-Glengariff: Trump trails all Dems  (Read 3053 times)
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« on: January 08, 2020, 11:56:30 PM »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2020, 12:59:11 PM »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

I hate to burst your bubble, but it's highly unlikely Trump holds your state this year.
way too early to make that claim
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2020, 01:17:44 PM »


It is way too early to make 99.9% of the claims that you make, but that has never stopped you.
I state my opinion that doesn't mean they are predictions I'm not making any real predictions until a week before the election
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2020, 01:19:28 PM »

Believable numbers. Maybe too generous for the Dems but the Dems have definitely the edge here. It's their state to lose right now.
we will see what the numbers are in late October
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2020, 09:45:48 PM »

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

Perhaps. But Michigan was the closest state in 2016 and if this poll is accurate, especially considering the surprisingly high approval-disapproval ratings in it, suggests that Trump is guaranteed to do worse in the country as a whole than in 2016. Michigan is easily the first  Trump state to flip and this poll may suggest that it flipping in 2016 was a fluke due to a perfect storm for Trump, who only barely flipped it.

This poll should also probably grant Gary Peters some reassurance.

Of course, it is indeed early, we'll see what happens. But Democrats aren't going to take this state for granted like in 2016, and even though it may never vote for Democrats by double digits ever again, your state isn't as (non-Atlas) red as you think it is.
Peter's is running ads a year before the election that tells me everything. Latest poll has 16% undecided in that race ! 16! He is only at 44% which is awful for an incumbent. It's clear James has a slight edge right now and the presidential race looks like a dead heat in MI. I agree with a previous poster there is no way in hell Trump is down 7 to Biden if his approval is only -2 in the state. Michigan polls consistently are too D friendly.  At the very best Biden may be up a point or two in MI right now that's it.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2020, 11:36:09 PM »
« Edited: January 11, 2020, 11:42:11 PM by SN2903 »


It is way too early to make 99.9% of the claims that you make, but that has never stopped you.
I state my opinion that doesn't mean they are predictions I'm not making any real predictions until a week before the election

You said the samething in 2018, and you stated John James was gonna beat Stabenow,  what has changed?
That wasn't a final prediction. It was an opinion at the time. It's ridiculous to make real predictions until at least 1-2 weeks before the election. My final prediction was I thought James would win because I thought he had a lot of momentum the last 2 weeks. I underestimated the fact that the RNC didn't fund him at all and that 2018 was a stronger D year than I thought it would be. Despite that he came within 6 pts of a 20 year incumbent and in 2020 I think he has a better than 50/50 chance of winning
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2020, 11:43:11 PM »

The manufacturing sector of the economy is already in a recession and has been for quite some time now. Doubt Trump wins the state again
Even if he doesn't he can easily still win re-election. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona will decide it. I could see Trump coming really close in MI and losing like 51 to 49 while James eeks out a win. I think James will run 2-3 pts better than Trump in MI.

I think Michigan is a 50 50 race in 2020 at the presidential level. It could go either way. I actually am starting to think Bernie may have a better chance in MI than Biden, but Bernie would be weaker than Joe in WI and PA. I think WI and PA are still tilt R at this point.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2020, 11:46:31 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2020, 12:54:02 AM by SN2903 »

The manufacturing sector of the economy is already in a recession and has been for quite some time now. Doubt Trump wins the state again
Even if he doesn't he can easily still win re-election. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona will decide it. I could see Trump coming really close in MI and losing like 51 to 49 while James eeks out a win. I think James will run 2-3 pts better than Trump in MI.

I think Michigan is a 50 50 race in 2020 at the presidential level. It could go either way. I actually am starting to think Bernie may have a better chance in MI than Biden, but Bernie would be weaker than Joe in WI and PA. I think WI and PA are still tilt R at this point.

You keep saying that but Bernie consistently leads Biden in Fox polls and Gary Johnson took 3 percent last time
Any one of us could be wrong, and probably will be. In 2018, I predicted Stabenow would run ahead of Whitmer in MI. I was wrong.

As of right now I think MI is Tilt D; Bernie and Biden probably would each beat Trump 50-49, and Peters would beat James 50-48. But a lot can happen between now and November.
I think James is going to win. He's already out raising Peters and is still building his name recognition.  The presidential could go either way. I think James runs 2-3 pts better than Trump. James is gonna do well in Oakland which should put him across the finish line if he wins Macomb by a decent margin.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2020, 10:19:20 AM »

James is losing to Peter's 44-40.  The only black that is gonna win statewide office is Ben Jealous if he runs for Gov again in 2022 in MD, and he should, because Hogan was too popular in 2018
16% undecided in that poll. 44% is an atrocious # for an incumbent.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2020, 11:39:56 AM »

James is losing to Peter's 44-40.  The only black that is gonna win statewide office is Ben Jealous if he runs for Gov again in 2022 in MD, and he should, because Hogan was too popular in 2018
16% undecided in that poll. 44% is an atrocious # for an incumbent.

But Mr. Trump's 43% give him a good chance to win MI. Lol.
? His approval is only -2 in Michigan. He's at 47% approval.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 14 queries.