Iowa (PPP) - Trump Leads All Dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie can win OH but lose IA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not surprising that Pete performs best among all Dems against Trump.

Candidates have almost 100% name recognition there.

People need to start realizing that Pete is the most electable candidate.

Pete is definitely the most electable candidate and the only one of the top tier candidates who can give Trump a run for his money.

Biden only appears to be the most electable. This will change after IA/NH.

Sanders has problems with educated voters which will likely lead to him losing the election.

Sanders will pick Buttigieg or Bennet as a fusion ticket to help him with WWC voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is suspicious for a variety of reasons, but these are my non-conspiracy takes from the poll numbers:  1) Biden loses to Trump by 5-7% in a two-way race, and 8-10% in race with third-party candidates; 2) Buttigieg and Sanders showing Obama like numbers with 18-29 year-olds, and Buttigieg probably wins by 2-3% while Sanders is competitive against Trump; 3) Considering the Iowa poll and the Arizona poll together, Sanders should have a lead in Arizona if not for under-sampling 18-44 year-olds, Independent, and undecided/third-party voters. 

First, Biden’s numbers should scare Democrats.  He is losing Independents by 3 points, while 9% are undecided.  He is doing worse with older voters than I saw in previous polls of swing states, in addition to only winning a putrid 46% of voters in the 18-29 demographic.   Just from doing a little mathematics, the youth vote is under-represented by 4.5 to 5.5 percent from an average of 2004 to 2016 voter demographic turnout.   These numbers are very Clintonesque in light of the PPP under-sampling Trump voters by 3.15%, in addition to over-sampling Democrats by 2-4% while Republicans were under-sampled by 1%.  https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html (2004-2012 Exit Polls); https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president (2016 Exit Poll).

Second, the under-sampling of the 18-29% demographic is so under-sampled that the Buttigieg and Sanders poll numbers are affected by a 2-3% swing while Biden is only helped by ¾ point swing in a head-to-head.  You also consider that Buttigieg is hurt by a lower percentage of 30-44 year-old voters of which he has a 52 to 44% lead against Trump, and Buttigieg starts to look like the re-incarnation of Barack Obama purely on his ability to bring out young, working class white voters.

Third, the Arizona poll shows Sanders with a more impressive lead among 18-29 year-old with a total of 72% to Trump’s 19%.  It’s the most impressive proportion of youth voter share since Obama in 2012, where the 18-29 voters demographic represented 26% of the electorate.  He does just as well as Clinton did with Women, and captures the same amount of voters ages 30-44 as Clinton.  Many voters in the two aforementioned demographics are “sure” to vote for Bernie, as 13% of 18-29 year-olds and 7% of 30-44 year-old are unsure.  In contrast, 17% and 13% of 18-29 and 30-44 year-olds are unsure about voting for Biden, and Trump is winning this demographic.

The final result in Arizona was Trump by 48-44.5 in 2016, because Clinton did pretty well with older voters, but did poorly with the white voters that supported the Obama coalition.  40% of Arizona voters Independent voters that are young or middle-aged that are Hispanic or White, and Bernie already wins 50%, with this demographic and takes more Republicans than Biden.   Bernie is supported by 63% of the participants that voted for a third-party or did not vote in the last election, and both him and buttigieg do better than Biden with this group in Iowa.   

538 is the 278 Blue wall Bernie needs Bennet to solidify it and thus the election goes to Dem

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is extremely popular in the state and Greenfield is performing below expectations,  that's why no one wanted to challenge Ernst and they got Greenfield

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are targeting KS instead of IA, and Greenfield is 6 points behind. But, Mike Franken has been a failed candidate