This poll is suspicious for a variety of reasons, but these are my non-conspiracy takes from the poll numbers: 1) Biden loses to Trump by 5-7% in a two-way race, and 8-10% in race with third-party candidates; 2) Buttigieg and Sanders showing Obama like numbers with 18-29 year-olds, and Buttigieg probably wins by 2-3% while Sanders is competitive against Trump; 3) Considering the Iowa poll and the Arizona poll together, Sanders should have a lead in Arizona if not for under-sampling 18-44 year-olds, Independent, and undecided/third-party voters.
First, Biden’s numbers should scare Democrats. He is losing Independents by 3 points, while 9% are undecided. He is doing worse with older voters than I saw in previous polls of swing states, in addition to only winning a putrid 46% of voters in the 18-29 demographic. Just from doing a little mathematics, the youth vote is under-represented by 4.5 to 5.5 percent from an average of 2004 to 2016 voter demographic turnout. These numbers are very Clintonesque in light of the PPP under-sampling Trump voters by 3.15%, in addition to over-sampling Democrats by 2-4% while Republicans were under-sampled by 1%.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html (2004-2012 Exit Polls);
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president (2016 Exit Poll).
Second, the under-sampling of the 18-29% demographic is so under-sampled that the Buttigieg and Sanders poll numbers are affected by a 2-3% swing while Biden is only helped by ¾ point swing in a head-to-head. You also consider that Buttigieg is hurt by a lower percentage of 30-44 year-old voters of which he has a 52 to 44% lead against Trump, and Buttigieg starts to look like the re-incarnation of Barack Obama purely on his ability to bring out young, working class white voters.
Third, the Arizona poll shows Sanders with a more impressive lead among 18-29 year-old with a total of 72% to Trump’s 19%. It’s the most impressive proportion of youth voter share since Obama in 2012, where the 18-29 voters demographic represented 26% of the electorate. He does just as well as Clinton did with Women, and captures the same amount of voters ages 30-44 as Clinton. Many voters in the two aforementioned demographics are “sure” to vote for Bernie, as 13% of 18-29 year-olds and 7% of 30-44 year-old are unsure. In contrast, 17% and 13% of 18-29 and 30-44 year-olds are unsure about voting for Biden, and Trump is winning this demographic.
The final result in Arizona was Trump by 48-44.5 in 2016, because Clinton did pretty well with older voters, but did poorly with the white voters that supported the Obama coalition. 40% of Arizona voters Independent voters that are young or middle-aged that are Hispanic or White, and Bernie already wins 50%, with this demographic and takes more Republicans than Biden. Bernie is supported by 63% of the participants that voted for a third-party or did not vote in the last election, and both him and buttigieg do better than Biden with this group in Iowa.
