Arizona (PPP) - Biden Tied, Trump Leads Others

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP has a very interesting article about these polls.  Some tidbits:

When you dig further into the numbers though a clear picture emerges- Trump’s position would be much, much worse if voters who don’t like him- or even just those voters who voted against him in 2016- end up unifying around the eventual Democratic nominee.

In Arizona more than 80% of the undecideds in every match up between Trump and the individual Democratic candidates disapproves of Trump. And the undecideds also voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 by anywhere from 45-50 points.
...
It’s a similar story in Iowa. Trump’s approval rating with the voters who are undecided ranges from 3 to 7%, and the undecided group voted for Clinton over Trump by an average of 31 points.

They also generate projected outcomes based on allocating the undecideds both ways (2016 vote and Trump approval rating).  As you might expect, those look quite a bit better for the Democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He isn’t losing Arizona after taking it +4 a few years ago and now standing on the strongest economy in 50 years and a leftist PR meltdown of a pointless impeachment nobody cares about.

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

Next.

PPP's polls don't show an appreciable bias against Trump; if anything, they've been one of his better pollsters.  Next.

[GeorgiaModerate]

He isn’t losing Arizona after taking it +4 a few years ago and now standing on the strongest economy in 50 years and a leftist PR meltdown of a pointless impeachment nobody cares about.

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

Next.

PPP's polls don't show an appreciable bias against Trump; if anything, they've been one of his better pollsters.  Next.

Ill-willed bias isn’t what I’m referring to by statistical error/unaccounted vote. I’ll bet you $20 he takes AZ, save this post and get back to me with a venmo/cashapp.

Fair enough.  I assumed you were implying a deliberate bias on their part (something other people have accused PPP of with no evidence).  Consider that assumption withdrawn.

I don't bet on elections, but I certainly don't assume Trump will lose.  IMO Arizona is a tossup at this point.  It's going to depend on who the D nominee is (I'd consider Biden and maybe Klobuchar a slight favorite there, anyone else a slight underdog or worse).