Arizona (PPP) - Biden Tied, Trump Leads Others

[Hollywood]

This poll is completely rigged for Joe Biden, and any establishment Democrat nominee.  

First item of note is page one, where I can't get over the error within the total percentage of the age and race demographics equals 101%.  Yet, they basically underestimate the 18-45 age demographic by 7%.  The 18-29% demographic is only 12% when it should be at least 16%, unless Democrats expect to do worse than Hillary Clinton in 2016.  The reduction of the 18-29 and 30-44 demographics is meant to do two things: 1) Decrease two groups Bernie does better with than by Bernie; and 2) disadvantage Trump with 30-44 year-olds because he beats Biden in this demographic, and Bernie does 6 points better with this group.  Bernie pretty much does as good as Clinton with the older demographics, and captures Obama-like numbers of 72-19% over Trump in the 18-29 demographic.  

Bernie also has 68% according to this poll, but the addition the extra 1% of White voters that makes up 76% of a total of 101% according to page one of the poll is another one of many reasons Biden does better than Sanders.  

Then you have the 36% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans, which is 8% greater for both parties than in 2016.  This makes sense for Republicans because around 38-42% of the electorate is conservatives, whereas 27% is liberal and 32-40% is moderate.  Just giving the Democrats an 8% increase of partisan voters, but not identifying the amount of people that are liberal, moderate or conservatives is another move that helps Biden and hurts Sanders, because Biden gets an extra boost from old, moderate and conservative as opposed to liberal, young Democrats that are part of this 36% in the poll and Bernie loses pretty bad cause 2% of those Democrats go for Trump.  Bernie wins Independents 50-41%, but doesn't benefit due to the proportion of Independents being 50% less than Democrats even though they should be at least 32% of demographic.  

In a two-way race, BIDEN LOSES to Trump by at least 6 POINTS.  He receives every voter for Jill Stein, which makes it reasonable for him to be at 46% (Clinton + Stein vote total in 2016) cause he received around 50% of the undecided/third-party.  I just don't believe that 14% of Democrats are unsure, and if so, Trump does well enough with other groups to amass 50% of the vote.  Then when you take into account the Libertarian candidate that used to be a Democrat or another third party candidates, there just aren't enough votes for Biden unless he brings out the youth demographic that have been passively supporting and declining to support him as the campaign continues.  If your going to rely on the electorate being 25% 65+ like the poll suggests was the case in 2016 then you might as well just give up the state.

However, with an extra 3% from his improvement with youth voters, Sanders has an amazing chance to beat Trump in Arizona, especially if there's a three-way race.  Democrats have 46% percent so long as Jill Stein doesn't run.  In 2012 56% of the vote was under 45.  Obama lost despite receiving 66% of the 18-29 vote, because he lost 30-44 year-olds (30% of electorate) by 15 points.  PPP has Bernie up by 3% at 48% with this group, and Bernie is winning over 60% of the undecided/third-party voters.  I imagine Bernie's floor is 47% and his ceiling is around 52%.  If he can bring out the 18-44 as 46% of the total proportion of voter or go even higher like Obama in 2012 and then get the non-white vote back to 27% of the electorate, he wins Arizona.