|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 04, 2020, 08:07:19 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Arizona (PPP) - Biden Tied, Trump Leads Others
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Arizona (PPP) - Biden Tied, Trump Leads Others  (Read 1012 times)
wbrocks67
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 08, 2020, 11:02:09 am »

Biden 46, Trump 46

Trump 47, Sanders 46

Trump 47, Warren 45

Trump 47, Buttigieg 44

Trump approval = 46/52

Interesting bit though about how most of the undecideds disapprove of Trump:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democratic-unity-will-determine-trumps-fate/
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,149
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2020, 11:03:58 am »

Plausible numbers.

I never bought Sanders/Buttigieg losing by double digits, though Biden may be the best bet for Dems in AZ. At least for now.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,626
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2020, 11:11:31 am »

75% of Hispanics disapprove of Trump 😬
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2020, 11:13:25 am »

PPP has a very interesting article about these polls.  Some tidbits:

Quote
When you dig further into the numbers though a clear picture emerges- Trumpís position would be much, much worse if voters who donít like him- or even just those voters who voted against him in 2016- end up unifying around the eventual Democratic nominee.

In Arizona more than 80% of the undecideds in every match up between Trump and the individual Democratic candidates disapproves of Trump. And the undecideds also voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 by anywhere from 45-50 points.
...
Itís a similar story in Iowa. Trumpís approval rating with the voters who are undecided ranges from 3 to 7%, and the undecided group voted for Clinton over Trump by an average of 31 points.


They also generate projected outcomes based on allocating the undecideds both ways (2016 vote and Trump approval rating).  As you might expect, those look quite a bit better for the Democrats.
Logged
Sen. Dean Heller
Haley/Ryan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,241
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: 1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2020, 11:16:47 am »

The mistake here is assuming Trump disapproval = Democratic unity. One can dislike Trump and still be a conservative, as plenty of AZ voters would tell you.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2020, 11:24:09 am »

Arizona is certainly looking more and more promising. If Democrats can win here, it gives them some breathing room with Wisconsin.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,001
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2020, 11:30:36 am »

Unless Trump is consistently leading by a few % in AZ polling, he shouldnít feel too confident about winning the state. Also, Biden almost certainly flips AZ if Trump's approval rating on election day is 46/52.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,288
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2020, 11:35:57 am »

Unless Trump is consistently leading by a few % in AZ polling, he shouldnít feel too confident about winning the state. Also, Biden almost certainly flips AZ if Trump's approval rating on election day is 46/52.

Bernie has a Northern strategy that will put him ahead in delegates if Bernie win the Northern tier primaries; consequently, Blacks in North arent like Blacks in South whom think Biden is the same as Obama
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2020, 12:05:25 pm »

75% of Hispanics disapprove of Trump 😬

Bad Hombres
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,594
Germany



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2020, 03:21:30 pm »

Great poll, and more realistic differences between the Democratic contenders. Joe Biden is a great fit to flip Arizona because it likes moderate Democrats. Uncle Joe will most likely win Maricopa County and with it the state.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,288
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2020, 03:29:43 pm »

Great poll, and more realistic differences between the Democratic contenders. Joe Biden is a great fit to flip Arizona because it likes moderate Democrats. Uncle Joe will most likely win Maricopa County and with it the state.

Any credible candidate can beat Trump, I am sure if Bernie is the nominee, Bennet or Buttigieg can help Bernie win AZ, too, as a fusion ticket. Joe has to beat Warren or Sanders for the nomination
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 980
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2020, 04:22:04 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2020, 04:33:46 pm by EliteLX »

He isnít losing Arizona after taking it +4 a few years ago, now standing on the strongest economy in 50 years and a leftist PR meltdown of a pointless impeachment nobody cares about.

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +3.. +4.

Next.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2020, 04:33:03 pm »

He isnít losing Arizona after taking it +4 a few years ago and now standing on the strongest economy in 50 years and a leftist PR meltdown of a pointless impeachment nobody cares about.

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

Next.

PPP's polls don't show an appreciable bias against Trump; if anything, they've been one of his better pollsters.  Next.
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 980
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2020, 04:35:21 pm »

He isnít losing Arizona after taking it +4 a few years ago and now standing on the strongest economy in 50 years and a leftist PR meltdown of a pointless impeachment nobody cares about.

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

Next.

PPP's polls don't show an appreciable bias against Trump; if anything, they've been one of his better pollsters.  Next.

Ill-willed bias isnít what Iím referring to by statistical error/unaccounted vote. Iíll bet you $20 he takes AZ, save this post and get back to me with a venmo/cashapp.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,001
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2020, 05:18:45 pm »

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

AZ is not a red state, LMAO.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,938


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2020, 06:05:22 pm »

He isnít losing Arizona after taking it +4 a few years ago and now standing on the strongest economy in 50 years and a leftist PR meltdown of a pointless impeachment nobody cares about.

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

Next.

PPP's polls don't show an appreciable bias against Trump; if anything, they've been one of his better pollsters.  Next.

Ill-willed bias isnít what Iím referring to by statistical error/unaccounted vote. Iíll bet you $20 he takes AZ, save this post and get back to me with a venmo/cashapp.

Fair enough.  I assumed you were implying a deliberate bias on their part (something other people have accused PPP of with no evidence).  Consider that assumption withdrawn. Smiley

I don't bet on elections, but I certainly don't assume Trump will lose.  IMO Arizona is a tossup at this point.  It's going to depend on who the D nominee is (I'd consider Biden and maybe Klobuchar a slight favorite there, anyone else a slight underdog or worse).
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,255
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2020, 06:08:58 pm »

The mistake here is assuming Trump disapproval = Democratic unity. One can dislike Trump and still be a conservative, as plenty of AZ voters would tell you.

One can still be a conservative, and despise trump enough to not vote for him (again), as some AZ voters would tell you.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,255
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2020, 06:16:24 pm »


FIFY.
Singular, not plural.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,988
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2020, 06:55:32 pm »

I still think Arizona will be tougher to crack for Democrats than it looks, at least at the presidential level. It's definitely worth investing in though, and Kelly definitely has a strong chance at defeating McSally. He will probably outperform the nominee.
Logged
Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud
ShadowOfTheWave
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,061
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2020, 07:19:30 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2020, 07:23:04 pm by Platitudes And Senility »

AZ Dem ceiling is around 46-47% in a presidential race, their percentage has been stagnant there for the past two decades. Sinema was the perfect candidate for AZ, ran against a trash opponent in a Dem year, won Maricopa by a decent margin, and still barely won the state and didn't get a majority.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,292


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2020, 08:15:34 pm »

Wikipedia says Sinema 50.0%, McSally 47.6%. That's not a landslide, but it is a modest win that's about what Cruz beat O'Rourke by (2.6%). We remember it being a tight race because of the results on Election Day and immediately after when McSally was ahead.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,892
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.35, S: 2.87


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2020, 11:59:01 pm »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 12:03:45 am by SN2903 »

I don't see Trump losing Az in 2020 even to Biden. I think Biden can get close but ultimately the good economy will put Trump over the top +2 to +4

I think he would beat Sanders in Az by 5 to 7.
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 980
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2020, 01:15:24 am »

PPP polling showing a red state tie means this is likely Trump +2.. +3..

AZ is not a red state, LMAO.

Lead red, not a toss-up, yeah.
Logged
Hollywood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 751
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2020, 02:06:51 am »

This poll is completely rigged for Joe Biden, and any establishment Democrat nominee.  

First item of note is page one, where I can't get over the error within the total percentage of the age and race demographics equals 101%.  Yet, they basically underestimate the 18-45 age demographic by 7%.  The 18-29% demographic is only 12% when it should be at least 16%, unless Democrats expect to do worse than Hillary Clinton in 2016.  The reduction of the 18-29 and 30-44 demographics is meant to do two things: 1) Decrease two groups Bernie does better with than by Bernie; and 2) disadvantage Trump with 30-44 year-olds because he beats Biden in this demographic, and Bernie does 6 points better with this group.  Bernie pretty much does as good as Clinton with the older demographics, and captures Obama-like numbers of 72-19% over Trump in the 18-29 demographic.  

Bernie also has 68% according to this poll, but the addition the extra 1% of White voters that makes up 76% of a total of 101% according to page one of the poll is another one of many reasons Biden does better than Sanders.  

Then you have the 36% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans, which is 8% greater for both parties than in 2016.  This makes sense for Republicans because around 38-42% of the electorate is conservatives, whereas 27% is liberal and 32-40% is moderate.  Just giving the Democrats an 8% increase of partisan voters, but not identifying the amount of people that are liberal, moderate or conservatives is another move that helps Biden and hurts Sanders, because Biden gets an extra boost from old, moderate and conservative as opposed to liberal, young Democrats that are part of this 36% in the poll and Bernie loses pretty bad cause 2% of those Democrats go for Trump.  Bernie wins Independents 50-41%, but doesn't benefit due to the proportion of Independents being 50% less than Democrats even though they should be at least 32% of demographic.  

In a two-way race, BIDEN LOSES to Trump by at least 6 POINTS.  He receives every voter for Jill Stein, which makes it reasonable for him to be at 46% (Clinton + Stein vote total in 2016) cause he received around 50% of the undecided/third-party.  I just don't believe that 14% of Democrats are unsure, and if so, Trump does well enough with other groups to amass 50% of the vote.  Then when you take into account the Libertarian candidate that used to be a Democrat or another third party candidates, there just aren't enough votes for Biden unless he brings out the youth demographic that have been passively supporting and declining to support him as the campaign continues.  If your going to rely on the electorate being 25% 65+ like the poll suggests was the case in 2016 then you might as well just give up the state.

However, with an extra 3% from his improvement with youth voters, Sanders has an amazing chance to beat Trump in Arizona, especially if there's a three-way race.  Democrats have 46% percent so long as Jill Stein doesn't run.  In 2012 56% of the vote was under 45.  Obama lost despite receiving 66% of the 18-29 vote, because he lost 30-44 year-olds (30% of electorate) by 15 points.  PPP has Bernie up by 3% at 48% with this group, and Bernie is winning over 60% of the undecided/third-party voters.  I imagine Bernie's floor is 47% and his ceiling is around 52%.  If he can bring out the 18-44 as 46% of the total proportion of voter or go even higher like Obama in 2012 and then get the non-white vote back to 27% of the electorate, he wins Arizona.  


Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,666
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2020, 02:13:09 am »

AZ Dem ceiling is around 46-47% in a presidential race, their percentage has been stagnant there for the past two decades. Sinema was the perfect candidate for AZ, ran against a trash opponent in a Dem year, won Maricopa by a decent margin, and still barely won the state and didn't get a majority.
OC-tier post
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines