PPP (D): IA SEN - Ernst +6 over Greenfield

[OneJ]

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/IowaResults.pdf

Joni Ernst - 47%
Theresa Greenfield - 41%
Not Sure - 12%

Trump - 47%
Democratic Candidate - 49%

[Person Man]

Senate: Likely R
President: Lean R

Things are subject to change

[Xing]

Not good that Greenfield is down in a sample that has Trump losing here. Democrats really needed a better candidate here, but either way, Iowa might just be too red and foolish for Ernst to lose.

[😥]

Ernst can lose but with stronger Democrat. She will win against Greenfield, only way when she can lose it if 2020 is Democratic tsunami

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Ernst isn't unassailable, but also not very vulnerable. This race is basically right where I expected it to be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greenfield will get more media attention once the primary is over, but she needs more prime time attention

[SnowLabrador]

If Joni Ernst is outperforming Donald Trump by 8 points, then it's Safe R.

[Gass3268]

This is sort of where the Governor's race was this far out, before it tightned. I expect a similar result give or take a few points.

[Pollster]

Ernst's favorability is +2 here, suggesting there is room for tightening but not a lot of it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Joni Ernst is outperforming Donald Trump by 8 points, then it's Safe R.

Half of this website seems convinced that Trump will lose Iowa by 12 points or so because of tariffs and Morning Consult

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Joni Ernst is outperforming Donald Trump by 8 points, then it's Safe R.

Half of this website seems convinced that Trump will lose Iowa by 12 points or so because of tariffs and Morning Consult

I have him losing Iowa by 1 point and only to Biden. He will beat Warren here by 5-6 points and Bernie by 3

[Frenchrepublican]

Ernst's favorability is +2 here, suggesting there is room for tightening but not a lot of it.

We are talking about a PPP poll done for a progressive political group. Not sure that you should take these Numbers at their face value.

[Frenchrepublican]

If Joni Ernst is outperforming Donald Trump by 8 points, then it's Safe R.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

BREAKING NEWS: Atlas declares results of most elections months ahead of the period where opinion polls are actually indicative to the final result, again.

Iowa is filled with enough insane voters that these races could be a solid win for either party, depending on how the 2020 campaigns roll out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst, SMC, John James, Collins and Murkowski all are in the pragmatic class in the Senate GOP class. Graham, Sullivan, McSally, Gardner, Cornyn are partisan in a bipartisan Senate. Voters have rewarded Senators for bipartisan.  But, McConnell have obstructed Bill's that have made it's way to the Senate. This is why polls are showing Ernst and John James winning and Graham and McSally losing

[Brittain33]

If Joni Ernst is outperforming Donald Trump by 8 points, then it's Safe R.

Ernst and Trump both get 47% in this (not very good) poll.

[Yellowhammer]

This is virtually Safe R.

[Pollster]

Ernst's favorability is +2 here, suggesting there is room for tightening but not a lot of it.

We are talking about a PPP poll done for a progressive political group. Not sure that you should take these Numbers at their face value.

No, this poll is remarkably transparent. The only pollster trick here that looks like it was designed to water down Ernst's numbers was asking her approval right after McConnell's, which is a usual PPP tactic (I used to contract for them). Also not 100% kosher to ask the ballot test after the favorables as it can artificially inflate name recognition, but that effect is typically negligible at worst. Other than that, the poll has a healthy sample size, was conducted over a very appropriate length of time, and appears to have asked all of its strategy/message test questions after the initial ballot test. Seems like a standard baseline poll and/or benchmark check poll.

[pbrower2a]

She should be way ahead by now if she is a strong incumbent. She has the advantage of name recognition. But her unfavorable rating is close to her favorable rating, and she is short of 50.

Let's see how she votes on impeachment and how Iowa voters respond. That could well be the key -- more even than how Trump does here. Campaigns can collapse over something like that.

SHE CAN LOSE, especially in an election hostile to Trump. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Still a better target than the hyped up SC and KY races, but still Ernst will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greenfield will beat Ernst